Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 8, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 126.55. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 125.05.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.36-125.05, 125.05-123.04-123.93, 123.93-123.17-123.64.
Supports:
- 122.88 = objective point (OP)
- 122.69-65 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 122.41 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 121.95-92-86 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and two objective points (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.05-123.04.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-50 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis 08/September/ 20011



In the United States Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech about the economy and in the evening, President Obama will act in relation to the unemployment situation. The U.S. stock market closed the day higher on Wednesday, but one day of profit does not mean that the performance of the market has turned positive.

The German court said yesterday it was OK for the government to allow financial assistance in connection with sovereign debt crises. However, the court added that all future aid packages must be approved by the German parliament. On the other hand, can still be heard rumors regarding the dilemma faced by Greece for its economic prospects and its ability to meet established goals.

For the day today, it is expected that global investors keep close Trichet signals, this speech has already been given, Bernanke and Obama. However, it is likely that after the statements operators continue to have several questions unanswered. Nevertheless, it should be noted that officials will do their best to give a positive spin on the week.

Traders are on alert for any change in tone, in particular any change toward a more conciliatory.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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USD/JPY wave analysis for September 8, 2011







In general, as expected, yesterday the USD/JPY started to decline from the 77.72 level reached on Tuesday, thus probably forming a wave structure in the contents of abc waves within the future d wave. If so, the currency pair might continue declining to the lower limit of the horizontal corridor that coincides with the 76.50 at the moment.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/USD Strong Support 1.5912, September 08 2011







GBP/USD





The pair, British pound - U.S. dollar, came down in price, directly to the strong support 1.5912. Since the recent peak levels around 1.6600, which ran two weeks ago, the pair managed to lose 680 points of its value. From a technical perspective, it is estimated that if drilling weekly support 1.5880, apparently continue to decline.


However, if the pair manages to stay above the level of proof seems to begin a new upward movement, and may reach peak levels of 1.6600 earlier and higher still. The first price target is in the vicinity of the resistance around the 1.6418.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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The capital acumen of the access in metal prices on Monday was the advice about one of the above chestnut mining companies in Chili Dona Ines de Collahuasi suspending administration indefinitely. On Monday in the Company’s anchorage an blow entailing 3 deaths took place.

USD/CHF wave analysis for September 9, 2011







With the beginning of yesterday’s trading the 1-day recess of the uptrend was over and the USD/CHF advanced further in favour of the US currency. At the same time, given the correlation between the 1st and the 3rd wave we might suppose that the first target for such growth will be located at the level slightly above the 88 or even 89 mark.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 9, 2011 AUD/USD is moving within corrective wave B of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave there are also A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 1.0668. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0486-1.0668-1.0570. Resistances: - 1.0682 = contracted objective point (COP) - 1.0752 = objective point (OP) - 1.0864 = expanded objective point (XOP) If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0771, 1.0486-1.0668, and expansions off 1.0771-1.0486-1.0668. Supports: - 1.0556 = .618 ret - 1.0492 = COP - 1.0449 = .382 ret - 1.0383 = OP - 1.0350 = .50 ret Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 9, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave 4 still developing from 123.04.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 123.04-126.55, and expansions off 123.04-123.93-123.11, 123.11-124.36-123.60.
Resistances:
- 124.37-38 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .382 retracement
- 124.55 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 124.80-85 = confluence area of .50 ret and objective point (OP)
- 125.21 = .618 ret
- 125.44 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 125.62 = XOP
If the price continues the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36.
Supports:
- 122.65 = COP
- 122.19 = COP
- 121.95 = XOP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (45-60 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD candlestick analysis for September 9, 2011

Support levels: 0.9742, 0.9635, 0.9568
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0209

In a 4-hour chart USD/CAD pulls back after a sharp increase. Previously, USD/CAD tested a support level at 0.9742 without success which probably forwarded the currency pair to a parity level. In case it breaks the parity level, the trend turns bullish.
As written before, a fresh upward movement is confirmed by a breakthrough of the downward channel’s upper level and a previously developed MACD /RSI divergence. Moreover, a breakthrough of resistance level at 0.9780-0.9800 signified a new mid-term bottom at 0.9406 and opened the way to 1.0000. In case the price breaks a 1.0000 level, the next upward target will be at 1.0209.
However, short-term signals indicate a downward. In particular, MACD reveals a downfall to its key level, while RSI falls from an overbought level at 70.0. In case the downward movement continues, a breakthrough of a major support level at 0.9400 will forward the price to fresh multi-year minimums. A downward movement to 0.9172, which is a 61.8 Fibonacci Projection level from 1.0670 to 0.9445, can also be expected.
In mid-term trend, a breakthrough of a support level at 0.9930 indicated further mid-term movement from 1.3063 (maximum of 2009) to a 0.9400 target level. However, the downward movement is likely to be a correction and has a strong support level at 0.9056–0.9700.
In case of a pullback, a breakthrough of a 1.0851 level will confirm a breakthrough of the downward trend from 1.3063. In this case USD/CAD is expected to move upward to a resistance level at 1.1126 with a further target at 1.1866.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/USD wave analysis for September 12, 2011







During Friday’s trading the GBP/USD pair managed to proceed with the downside movement and tested the 1.5850 level by the end of the day. At the same time the wave situation of the whole downtrend section initiated August 19 still looks as a 5-wave structure with a considerable prolongation in the 5th wave. If so, the 1.5757 level might be a possible target for this trend section.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for September 12, 2011



4-hour timeframe




Overview:

The pound rate is declining further, the sell signal is still being observed with the first target at 1.5754 not reached yet. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 1.5754 – the first support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second support level at 1.5627. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.5990), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show continuing downside movement, the lines are slightly diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending, which indicates current downside movement, therefore it is possible to trade down now, however the reverse of the MACD to the upside will be a signal to cut short positions.



Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1.5754 and further to 1.5627. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.5990 and stretched down as the Kijun-sen declines. It is recommended to cut short positions after the MACD reverses u.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.



Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Fundamental Analysis, September 13, 2011



Breaches of Greece increased opposition in Germany to new financial aid Merkel leaving more and more alone in its efforts to save Greece.

Thus, the markets begin to discount an orderly restructuring of Greece or even leaving the euro was more likely the former than the latter. The biggest losses recorded by the French CAC affected by the explosion of a nuclear plant and the fear that Moody's downgraded the rating to its 3 major banks (BNP, Credit Agricole and Soc Gen) on maintaining a negative outlook by high exposure to debt helena.

WAS also was carried away by the negative tone, but rumors of future purchases of Italian debt by China allowed a bullish close. In this context, the Bund increased in price (IRR 1.74%) and the euro recovered some lost ground on Friday to $ 1.368.
The markets are reacting with fear to a situation whose consequences are difficult to calibrate. There are two problems with bankruptcy in Greece: the impact on the European financial system and contagion to countries like Spain and Italy.
In the first case, the French banks seem to be the most affected, but do not forget the Germans. The fall of these values �‹�‹in the last few days speak for themselves. And in the contagion spreads are reflecting it. Today's auction of 5 years in Italy has reached historic highs of the bond return if the amount raised is approaching the maximum of the target.

What does the future hold?, Authorities in Greece seem committed to keeping the ship afloat, but there may come a time when the Greek people have to evaluate the actual cost of implementing austerity measures in order to maintain their membership in the euro area, and decide that you no longer worth it. Either that, or the increasingly discontented members of the main euro zone states may wonder what exactly they are getting in exchange for all the bailout money, and if they are investing more and more funds in the rescue, with little hope of recovering their investment. There seems to be an easy solution to the dilemma of Greece.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/USD wave analysis for September 13, 2011







Yesterday during the whole day the GBP/USD currency pair was trading in a narrow price range stuck between the levels 1.5800 and 1.5880. At the same time the price tried to finish the formation of the 5th wave in the estimated 5th of the whole downtrend section initiated August 19. Thus, we might suppose that after observing the target level at the 1.5757 level the spot rate will start a correction movement to the upside to the 61 and 62 figure levels.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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EUR/JPY Bullish Above 104.18 , September 19, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







EUR/JPY

The euro – Japanese yen pair fell to new low levels, the like of which it hasn’t seen for some 11 years. reaching the price of 103.86.

Technically, it is important to pay attention to weekly support located at 104.18 and 102.40 only to the extent that weekend to negotiate the pair above this level will get confirmation of a real support and the possible beginning of a new wave bullish is expected to lead to the euro-yen in the long term to the price levels of 118.50







Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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EUR/USD Technical Correction, September 13, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)






EUR/USD



The analysis of long-term (weekly chart) euro-dollar pair shows that the last upward wave euro-dollar trend began in June 2010 and is still ongoing as long as the pair is trading above the level of support Finally, about $ 1.3200 per euro.


Given that markets are now unlikely to exist not agitated when the dust settles to make ends meet. However, chances are you have a break until the weekly pivot level 1.3840, then resume their downward trend in short term. We expect that the price reaches down to the level of important test of 1.3222, in order to locate positions of long-term purchase and return to the upward trend with target price of 1.3830 and $ 1.4464 per euro in the long term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 13, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 124.36.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-121.27-122.55.
Supports:
- 120.85 = objective point (OP)
- 120.64 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.77 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.36-121.27.
Resistances:
- 122.45 = .382 retracement
- 122.82 = .50 ret
- 123.18 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (50-60 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com