Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 2, 2011 GBP/JPY is now moving within impulse wave 5 of long term downtrend. Wave 5 started from 128.50 (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A and B waves of smaller degree, with wave B still developing from 124.16 (colored orange red in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 128.50-124.16. Resistances: - 126.84 = .618 retracement - 128.50 = 1.0 ret If the long term downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-124.87-128.50. Supports: - 123.91 = contracted objective point (COP) - 123.61 = expanded objective point (XOP) Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (50-75 pips above the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

Corn review for August 2, 2011

Futures on corn closed with abrupt gain on Monday amid concerns over the harvest condition due to a continuous drought in the US Middle West. By the end of CBOT trades December futures on corn grew by 17 cent (2.5%) up to 6.85 ¾ dollars per bushel.
In the beginning of this week traders bought futures on corn as market concerns over the condition of autumn harvest exacerbated owing to a continuous harsh drought in the US Middle East in July. It resulted in expectations of lower US Agriculture Department forecasts regarding grain reserves.
Traders keep on monitoring the weather conditions as farmers are expected to have good crops this year in order to prevent the supply crisis. Grain reserves have been at their 15-year highs in the USA. Meanwhile, demand for corn has been strong which puts more pressure upon the reserves. It causes market participants concerns.
Last month corn prices grew up to their all-time highs, yet they have declined since then by 15%. However, traders have been confused amid uncertainties over the harvest condition. Some analysts predict that the US Agriculture Department will downgrade its corn forecast to 150 bushels per acre from 152.7 bushels per acre.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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USD/CHF candlestick analysis for August 2, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF currency pair is refreshing all-time highs. The viewpoint at the paoir is still bearish as the downtrend remains.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF formed a Shooting Star candlestick indicating downside movement confirmed further.

This candlestick shows that the USD/CHF was demonstrating upside movement for several days, but rebounded after a fail to break 0.8946. At the next attempt of the bulls to fixate above 0.8900 the bears started to increase their influence, which resulted in formation of this candlestick.
Successful testing of the support level 0.8747 proved this point of view. Break of 0.8458 which is also the 61.8 Fibonacci projection 0.9342-0.8552 to 0.8946 targeted the pair to 0.8350. Break of the 0.8350 level caused downside movement to psychologically relevant support level 0.8000. Its break targeted the pair to 0.7700.
Stop loss should be placed slightly above the 0.8082 level as a break of this resistance level will target the pair to 0.8277.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, August 02, 2011


Obama announced yesterday afternoon with great fanfare that both parties (the ruling Democratic and Republican opponent) had reached an agreement to raise the deficit in the global power and end the speculation. It was passed in the House late yesterday with 269 votes in favor and 161 against. Today you will pass the Senate where it is taken for granted approval by a majority ruling as a final movie must exit the printer directly to the Oval Room of the White House for Obama to sign and enter into force.

Several scholars have lambasted the agreement, considering a halt to the recovery of an economy already weakened. The tax cuts in times of economic recovery may be a bucket to cool the numbers of recovery. Another issue that is unclear and remains in suspense more than one is how they will react rating agencies Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's to such a decision because even though the deficit rising default preventing little information exists on the target the tax cut.

The initial reaction was positive on the market, perhaps too impulsive. Both in Asia, America and Europe were the main selective welcomed the news coming from the U.S. Asian stocks were infected aggravated further by the stronger yen, which undermines the possibilities of a country's export sector clearly exporter and Japan: Nikkei -1.20%, -1.07% and Hang Seng Shanghai Comp. -0.91%.

In the currency market's initial reaction was the massive sale of dollars but gradually returned to investors wanted green haven. The EUR / USD after the announcement was only 1.4452 cracked down hard and now we're picking at 1.4170 where it looks fetching 1.4156 today to make a double floor. A similar situation of the sterling tried three times higher on drilling unsuccessful 1.6470, a level from which slumped to 1.6235. The tone is the same pairs that include the Australian dollar, Canadian, New Zealand, have called ground against the U.S. dollar.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook August 02, 2011 (Daily Strategy)








CRUDE OIL

In the daily chart we can see the oil has corrected down to the level of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the price of crude oil could resume its upward sequence he had in previous day, only if the price remains above weekly support around the 93,72 , for a long position. With A goal of take profit around the 102,80 level .




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/JPY wave analysis for August 2, 2011





Yesterday’s differently directed USD/JPY trading has slightly complicated the wave structure of the last three trading days, enabling us to interpret it as the 2nd wave in the estimated 3rd of the whole downside movement initiated July 8. If so, current recovery of the yen might grow stronger which in turn will enable the price to continue declining in the direction of target levels located up to the 74.50 level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 3, 2011

AUD/USD has developed wave A of long term uptrend from 1.0390 to 1.1079 (colored coral in the chart). Now corrective wave B is developing. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves - colored red in the chart - with subwave C still developing from 1.1063.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0390-1.1079, and expansions off 1.1079-1.0910-1.1063, 1.1063-1.0923-1.1006.
Supports:
- 1.0653 = .618 retracement
- 1.0639 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0621 = SXOP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-1.0679, 1.1006-1.0679.
Resistances:
- 1.0804 = .382 ret
- 1.0826 = .382 ret
- 1.0842 = .50 ret
- 1.0871 = .50 ret
- 1.0881 = .618 ret
- 1.0916 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (10-25 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 3, 2011

GBP/JPY is now moving within impulse wave 5 of long term downtrend. Wave 5 started from 128.50 (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and potential C waves of smaller degree (colored red in the chart).
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-124.87-128.50, 128.50-124.16-126.96.
Supports:
- 124.28 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.91 = COP
- 123.61 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 128.50-124.16, and expansions off 124.16-126.96-125.29.
Resistances:
- 126.84 = .618 retracement
- 127.02 = COP
- 128.09 = objective point (OP)
- 129.82 = XOP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (50-75 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for August 3, 2011


4-hour timeframe



Overview:
Forex market analysis for August 3 shows that at the moment the currency is still observing a sell signal with target level 1.4079, the price passed the Ichimoku Cloud, which strengthened the current signal. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 1.4081 – the second support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the third support level at 1.3933. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4300), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show continuing downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending, which indicates current downside movement, this filter enables us to trade down now, but after the MACD reverses up the correction should be expected.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1.4081 and further to 1.3933. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.4300 and stretched down as the Kijun-sen declines. It is recommended to cut short positions after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.



The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
 The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 4, 2011

AUD/USD has developed wave A of long term uptrend from 1.0390 to 1.1079 (colored coral in the chart). Now corrective wave B is developing. Within this wave there are five subwaves - colored red in the chart - with subwave 5 still developing from 1.0784.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0390-1.1079, and expansions off 1.1079-1.0910-1.1063, 1.1063-1.0679-1.0784, 1.0784-1.0681-1.0778.
Supports:
- 1.0653 = .618 retracement
- 1.0621 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0611 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0547 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0508 = SXOP
- 1.0400 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.1079 - this wave is not developed, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (40-45 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (65-80 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 4, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed the wave from 135.11 to 124.16 and is now moving in a corrective wave against this movement. Current wave A of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) now has A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 125.29 (colored red in the chart).
The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 139.94-124.16, 135.11-124.16, and expansions off 124.16-126.96-125.29.
Resistances:
- 129.63-82 = confluence area of .50 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP), already reached (!)
- 130.19 = .382 ret
- 130.93 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 125.29 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (120-130 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (170-200 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Cattle review for August 4, 2011

Futures on cattle grew on Wednesday amid increasing cash prices due to fewer beef supplies on the market. The prices were supported by a weakening US dollar.
By the end of CME trades August futures on cattle gained 0.57 cent (0.5%) and rose up to USD 1.1312 per pound. October contract increased by 0.22 cent (0.2%) and constituted USD 1.1827 dollars per pound. August futures on well-fed livestock lost 0.5% and equaled thus USD 1.3435 dollars per pound.
Traders say that futures grew as market participants have been concerned about fewer meat supplies owing to a continuous drought in the US Middle West. In Kansas and southern states many farmers specializing in cattle breeding had to sell large part of their livestock as high temperatures may well cause more losses.
In July mass cattle death was registered in the US Middle West and the Great Plains since the animals were not able to bear that high temperatures. Yet the part of cattle that managed to endure the drought considerably lost weight. Farmers say that despite good feeding these animals will not be able to gain any weight.
This news exacerbated concerns of market participants over cash prices for beef in Texas that equaled USD 1.08 per pound while in some states they grew up to 1.12-1.13 dollars per pound.
According to the reported data, this week wholesale prices gained 4 cent.
The market was also supported by a weaker US dollar. Declining American currency makes futures less expensive for holders of other currencies.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com