Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 5, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within corrective subwave 4 (colored yellow in the chart) from 1.0577 that is part of wave B of larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0771. Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0418-1.0771, 1.0315-1.0771, and expansions off 1.0771-1.0686-1.0735.
Supports:
- 1.0553-43 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements
- 1.0512 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0489 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0771-1.0577.
Resistances:
- 1.0651 = .382 ret
- 1.0674 = .50 ret
- 1.0697 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 5, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 126.55. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 124.76.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-124.11-124.76.
Supports:
- 123.71 = objective point (OP)
- 123.25 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.65 = COP
- 122.32 = OP
- 121.95 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 126.55 - this wave is not developed so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 05 - 09 / September, 2011



_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6723
Weekly - R2 = 1.6588
Weekly - R1 = 1.6403
Weekly Pivot = 1.6268
Weekly - S1 = 1.6083
Weekly - S2 = 1.5948
Weekly - S3 = 1.5763




_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7046
Monthly - R2 = 1.6832
Monthly - R1 = 1.6539
Monthly Pivot = 1.6325
Monthly - S1 = 1.6032
Monthly - S2 = 1.5819
Monthly - S3 = 1.5525






Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 05 - 09/ September, 2011



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0965
Weekly - R2 = 1.0867
Weekly - R1 = 1.0757
Weekly Pivot = 1.0659
Weekly - S1 = 1.0549
Weekly - S2 = 1.0451
Weekly - S3 = 1.0341


_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.2341
Monthly - R2 = 1.1703
Monthly - R1 = 1.1207
Monthly Pivot = 1.0566
Monthly - S1 = 1.0067
Monthly - S2 = 0.9429
Monthly - S3 = 0.8930





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 05 - 09/ September, 2011


____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4806
Weekly - R2 = 1.4677
Weekly - R1 = 1.4441
Weekly Pivot = 1.4312
Weekly - S1 = 1.4076
Weekly - S2 = 1.3947
Weekly - S3 = 1.3711





____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5091
Monthly - R2 = 1.4820
Monthly - R1 = 1.4597
Monthly Pivot = 1.4323
Monthly - S1 = 1.4103
Monthly - S2 = 1.3832
Monthly - S3 = 1.3609




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For September 05-09, 2011


_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 78,63
Weekly - R2 = 78,16
Weekly - R1 = 77,40
Weekly Pivot = 76,93
Weekly - S1 = 76,17
Weekly - S2 = 75,70
Weekly - S3 = 74,94


_____MONTHLY___
Monthly - R3 = 83,57
Monthly - R2 = 81,90
Monthly - R1 = 79,28
Monthly Pivot = 77,61
Monthly - S1 = 74,99
Monthly - S2 = 73,32
Monthly - S3 = 70.70



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for September 5, 2011



4-hour Timeframe





General review:
According to the Forex market analysis for September 5, a sell signal is being carried out, and the price is steadily moving downwards. Therefore, short positions are recommended. A Chinkou Span being below a price chart, with the price below the Ichimoku cloud, confirms the strong sell signal. The current target level is the second support level at 1.4075. The downward movement continues as long as the price is below a Kijun-Sen line at 1.4335. In case the price is fixed above the line, the current signal weakens and calls for closing short positions. Currently, the Chinkou Span is below the price chart which supports the current sell signal and reflects bearish intentions of traders. A Bollinger Bands reveals a continuation of the downward movement, and the bands are extending and moving downwards. Therefore, speculating for a fall is more profitable. Falling MACD reflects the current downwards movement, and a filter allows trading for a fall. In case MACD turns upward, it signifies the beginning of a correction and calls for closing short positions.



Trading recommendations:
Given the current euro trading situation, speculation on a fall is recommended, with a target of -1.4075. In case the price breaks this level, the next target is 1.3947. It is recommended to put a stop-loss above 1.4335 and lower it following a decrease of the Kijun-Sen line. In case MACD turns upward, manual close of short positions is recommended.

Besides the technical review please take into account fundamental data and the date of its release.

Annotation to the Chart:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – a red line
Kijun-Sen – a blue line
Senkou Span � – a light-brown dashed line
Senkou Span B – a light-purple dashed line
Chinkou Span – a green line
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
A red line and a bars chart with white bars in the indicator’s window




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011




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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 6, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave 5 (colored orange red in the chart) from 1.0590 that is part of wave A of larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0771. Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0771, 1.0315-1.0771, and expansions off 1.0735-1.0518-1.0590.
Supports:
- 1.0489 = .618 retracement
- 1.0456-49 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .382 ret
- 1.0373 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0350 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0771-1.0504.
Resistances:
- 1.0606 = .382 ret
- 1.0638 = .50 ret
- 1.0669 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (25-35 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 6, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 126.55. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 124.76.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-124.11-124.76, 124.76-123.50-123.99
Supports:
- 123.25-21 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 122.73-65 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and COP
- 122.32 = OP
- 121.95 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 124.76 - this wave is not developed so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-45 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Awaiting Barack Obama's Address: Review for September 6, 2011 (EUR/USD)

Facing reelections in a little more than a year, Barack Obama is expected to call for substantial investments in the U.S. faltering infrastructure. He may also call for another extension of benefits and allowances to stimulate consumer spending. However, the Republicans are likely to oppose Obama’s proposals being greatly concerned about public expenditures. The White House lowered its economic forecast on Thursday and claimed that unemployment level would probably average 9% until 2012.

Head of the Fed Ben Bernanke announced a week ago that the Fed could not mitigate U.S. problems including unemployment level and weak real estate. In other words, he sent a signal to Obama and the Congress to take responsibility for strengthening the economy. In case they assume that responsibility, the Fed will retain its right to intervene if the U.S economy seems in danger because of the Government’s non-feasance. Several chiefs of the central bank announced their readiness to consider a possibility of a third round of quantitative easing at the last Fed session on August, 9.

According to a report released on Friday, 42.9% of Americans, which is 6.0 mln people, had been unemployed for more than 6 months as for August. The longer they are unemployed, the more difficult it is for them to find a job.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, September 06, 2011



Concerns about the euro-zone debt was again the main focus of investors in yesterday's session, reeling the euro, and bringing down markets. The German DAX stock was one of the hardest hit, closing the day at -5.3%. The CAC 40 in France was a -4.7% and even the UK's FTSE 100 closed the session at -3.6%. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, fresh from their fifth loss in direct local elections in Germany, says that Greece will not receive financial aid this month if the conditions of its rescue package, a statement made to crystallize the fears of many operators and further spurred both the sale of EUR / USD as sovereign bonds.

Today we have the reference of the U.S. stock market, although the focus will remain focused on Europe. Finance ministers from Germany, Finland and the Netherlands will meet in Brussels to discuss the collateral required by the Helsinki exchange for their participation in the rescue of Greece. Hellenic And the country will face a € 1.000m issue in letters to 6 months, but do not expect problems because it is probably placed in advance with the backing of the ECB in the secondary market.

In the macro front, In the U.S., the likely decline in the ISM services will help to push the Fed to implement new incentive programs (QE3). Ta is the absence of catalysts will continue to risk aversion today very much in the markets, we expect another round of setbacks

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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USD/JPY wave analysis for September 6, 2011






Yesterday the USD/JPY moved further within the limits of a narrow horizontal corridor. At the same time, as we have already mentioned, we can suppose that the price is forming the c wave in the c of a horizontal triangle. It is quite difficult to predict the length of this c wave, however its target levels might be located near 77.50 or 77.65.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/USD Bullish Above 1.6030 , September 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







GBP/USD

The pair-United States Dollar pound sterling. Since the recent peak levels around 1.6600, which ran two weeks ago, the pair managed to lose 450 points of its value. From a technical perspective, it is estimated that if drilling support 1.6030, apparently continue to decline. However, if the pair manages to stay above the level of proof seems to begin a new upward movement, and may reach peak levels of 1.6720 earlier and higher still. The first price target is is in near the resistance around the 1.6403.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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GBP/JPY Bullish Outlook September 06 2011 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/JPY





Yesterday morning, the British pound-Japanese yen pair showed signs of a potential minimum point recorded after they slumped to levels of 123.45, then rebounded to close above the important support level of 123.57. The performance of pair decidedly hints that it is possible that it is a soil that represents a basis for a new upward sequence.





Technically, the pair is in the very low price levels and has a huge upside potential. It is estimated that the pair may stumble upon the significant level of testing around 127.50 Japanese yen per pound.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 7, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C (colored red in the chart) from 1.0624 that is part of wave A of larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0771. Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0771, 1.0315-1.0771, and expansions off 1.0771-1.0502-1.0624.
Supports:
- 1.0489 = .618 retracement, reached already (!)
- 1.0458-49 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .382 ret
- 1.0355-50 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0771-1.0486.
Resistances:
- 1.0629 = .50 ret
- 1.0662 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 7, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 126.55. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 125.05.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.36-125.05, 125.05-123.04-123.93.
Supports:
- 123.08 = contracted objective point (COP), already hit (!)
- 122.69-65 = confluence area of two COP's
- 121.95-92-86 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and two objective points (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.05-123.04.
Resistances:
- 124.05 = .50 ret
- 124.28 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-50 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis 07 September 2011



ECB President Trichet called on euro zone states immediately pass the strengthening of the rescue fund to fight the debt crisis. Also stressed that the euro area needs a series of economic reforms and structural improve productivity, increase growth and boost employment.

What has been happening lately is that downward movement of euro sovereign rebalancing flows appear, which eventually mitigate the fall of the single currency, the euro is needed is a catalyst strong enough to get him out of his range with the dollar, leading the euro to fall against most currencies.

The Swiss franc weakened against the dollar and euro after the Swiss Central Bank (BNS) declared that it would buy unlimited amounts of currency in the country to curb the strength of the currency and lower its value to a target of 1.20 francs against the euro. The EURCHF reached a price of 1.21 and this also caused the rise of the dollar against the franc and the USDCHF was at 0.8579 francs.

On the other hand the price of gold reaching back to 1920 dollars an ounce, rising expectations that the U.S. re-launch a QE and the aforementioned European debt fears. It is quite clear that any event that generates some fear in financial markets by strengthening the gold finish, at least for the remainder of the year.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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EUR/USD Bullish Outlook September, 07 2011






EUR/USD

On the short graph 4 hours for the euro – United States dollar pair we can see that the wave of price drops was stopped exactly at the support level of 1.3975. It is still to early to state with any degree of certainty if the euro – dollar pair has established strong enough foundation in order to change its direction and begin, once again, to move upwards towards its previous record levels in the region of 1.4525. In the short term, there is a very good chance for a move that can be expected to reach the resistance level of, at least, 1.4360 euro to the dollar.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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CAD/JPY Bullish Outlook for 07/september/2011







CAD/JPY

Since the start of casualties in the financial markets about four months ago, the loonie-yen pair Japanese lost about 1300 points! braking was exactly the last support level of 76.90. The estimation about the strength of the support level was surpassed for the pair failed to close below this important support of 77.00. This is indicative of a high potential for reversal and go to hikes. The price target over the medium term is around the 83.60 level, Japanese yen per Canadian dollar.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for September 7, 2011






Yesterday the market was highly volatile which provoked rather a dynamic expected though USD/JPY growth to 77.70. In spite of this, the pair still moves within a horizontal range of a current correction. However, yesterday’s maximum probably marked the end of C, B and C waves of a horizontal triangle. If this is the case, the price will recommence a downward movement to a 76.50 level forming a future D wave of the triangle.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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EUR/USD wave analysis for September 7, 2011







As expected, another attempt of the EUR/USD to pass the 1.4050 level resulted in a rebound of the rate to the upside. At the same time in force majeure conditions such 200 point move was quite dynamic and ended near 1.4245. Therefore, we might suppose that the price finished to form the estimated a wave of the current downside correction. In the meantime, further resumption of the euro decline has probably indicated the beginning of developing b wave of the current correction.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com