Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 19, 2011 AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0748. Within this wave there are also four subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave 4 potentially coming to an end. Tthe targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0665-1.0181 and 1.0748-1.0181. Resistances: - 1.0423 = .50 retracement - 1.0465 = .50 ret - 1.0480 = .618 ret - 1.0531 = .618 ret If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0486-1.0665, 1.0665-1.0181-1.0401. Supports: - 1.0181 = previous low - 1.0102 = contracted objective point (COP) - 0.9927-17 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP) Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (40-50 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (70-85 pips above the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 19, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 124.36. Within wave 5 there are A, B anc C subwaves of smaller degree (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 122.22.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-120.61-122.22, 122.22-120.73-121.70.
Supports:
- 120.21 = objective point (OP)
- 119.90 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.29 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 119.11 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 118.68 = XOP
- 118.47 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 124.36 - this wave is not developed, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD candlestick analysis (long-term view)

The EUR/USD currency pair closed with a sharp advance last week.
Earlier in a weekly graph the EUR/USD formed Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This combination shows that the pair dropped sharply after an attempt to advance to the resistance level 1.4700, which means that the bears started to increase their influence.
Further decline is supported by the RSI indicator demonstrating a rollback from the overbought level 70.0.
Break of the support level 1.3969 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect a decline to the support level 1.3427 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 1.4700 as its break will target the pair to 1.4900. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, September 20, 2011



The gold market is at risk of flood peaks from generation product of a series of overbought signals arising very close to the psychological level of $ 2000 per ounce. Also, the recent increase by the CME the margin required to operate an ounce (55%), makes it likely the occurrence of further decline able to quell investors more clinging and hinders any new long positions. This explains why gold has been under pressure lately despite the large capital flows shelter received after the intervention of the Swiss National Bank, SNB-market EUR / CHF and the large uncertainties regarding the sovereign debt crisis the Eurozone.

His long-term cycle suggests the formation of a peak, where his last movement sets a pronounced parabolic high-risk area. From the perspective of Elliott Wave analysis, the recent movement belongs possibly at the end of the intermediate phase of impulsive advance (wave 3). A confirmation by a weekly close below $ 1600 a collapse could generate up to 28% in early 2012 could form an important ground and generated a great buying opportunity.

Several variables of feeling recently reached extreme levels and is therefore expected to recede. The volume of speculative capital are a concern in the market since the registration of a new record in the metal is exposed to a structural decline. Given the substantial long position has been for the past two years on the market for an ounce, down from this area could lead to serious consequences. So its macroeconomic fundamentals would be temporarily frozen as traders cut benefits as a result of positioning saturated.

This whole scenario occurs in a context of escalating tensions and economic policies leads investors to demand more attractive haven assets. However, the world is running out of places to shelter. Proof of this has been the Swiss Franc intervention by the SNB, in a desperate attempt to exclude from the market the shelter category, Japan Yen still watching her lurking highs not seen since the Second World War and coins belonging to the group of commodities retreat from extreme levels.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook, September 20, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







AUD/USD

After it closed the last trading week with escalating levels of resistance near 1.0375, the aussie-dollar pair again significant operating near the 1.0270 support level.

A positive act will lead markets as reincentivar ups and support the Aussie-dollar pair. After the violent correction from peak levels of 1.1070, the pair now has a very high upside potential, the resistance level of 1.0860 can act distant target over the medium to long term, while resistance levels close 1.0480 and 1.0600 for partial points will serve as short-term exercise.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook September 20 2011 (Daily Strategy)







GBP/USD



The pair sterling - U.S. dollar once again operates around the 1.5700 support level and therefore represents an interesting opportunity for the buy. In the short term is expected to advance easily pair towards 1.5880 resistance first, but then the pair-dollar British pound will have to face the important 1.5850 level test.



The clean break from the standard of proof represents an indication of the high potential for continued upward movement also to longer ranges. Preferred price targets for the year are around the 1.6000 resistance levels. On the contrary, the continuing negative trend with the drilling of 1.5550 support will finally end the positive outlook and lead to a new analysis of the situation.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/CHF wave analysis for September 20, 2011






Yesterday’s continuing advance of the USD/CHF rate has a chance to develop into a more continuous section of the upside trend. At the same time the price might reach the marks located between the levels 0.9065 and 0.9130. If so, the inner wave structure of the estimated 3rd wave (or C) will become more complicated and continuous.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for September 21, 2011

Earlier in a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a Falling Three Methods combination that gives us a bearish signal.
This combination was formed amid a downside movement after the pair could not break the resistance level near 1.6600, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence. At the same time each rollback was considered as a pause before further decline.
Break of the support level 1.5565 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect a downfall to the support level 1.5344.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.5932 level as its break will allow the pair to reach 1.6200.  


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, September 21, 2011



Apparently, the Troika talks in Greece have been productive and encouraging. It is expected that the review of implementing austerity plans for Greece, now suspended, will resume next week. Thus, the Greek finance minister expressed confidence in getting the next tranche of the financing package so absolutely necessary, an event that has allowed collective breathe a sigh of relief to markets

Now that the possibility of risk in Greece is attenuated, the market's attention is directed to the meeting this afternoon in the CFMA, with most expected to enter a "shift in operations."

A two-day meeting of Federal Reserve policy-setting committee began yesterday and a monetary policy statement will be released after the meeting concludes today. Many expect the Fed will announce further measures to help a struggling economy, including changing the composition of your portfolio so it keeps the longer-term debt to reduce long-term interest rates. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of expectations of analysts and investors, is meant to predict the evolution of six months in advance will be reduced to less than 43.3 from 37.6 in August less. That's the lowest since December 2008. Economists expected a drop of less than 45.

The Swiss economy is showing increasing signs of slowing after expanding in the second quarter at the weakest pace since emerging from a recession in 2009. The central bank on September 15 reiterated its commitment to defend a ceiling of 1.20 franc against the euro to protect exports, while leaving borrowing costs at zero. According to reports yesterday, exports fell by 7% in August from the previous month, while imports increased 0.9% during the same period.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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CRUDE OIL Sell Below 85.00 September 21, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







CRUDE OIL



Technically, the break of the bottom line around 85.00 is a sign of continued downward movement with significant horizon downward to the $ 79 minimum. By contrast, the breakup of the top line weekly pivot around 87.70. will provide a clue to a new market recovery and a potential bullish on oil, back to the levels of resistance around $ 100 a barrel.





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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EUR/JPY Bullish Above 104.00 , September 21, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







EUR/JPY

The Euro - Japanese yen pair Technically, it is important to pay attention to strong support at 104.18.

The pair has been testing the level of 104. so it has proved a strong barrier to prevent the pair make minimal snow. All buy position, we can place above this level. itself a break of this level change our bullish outlook of the pair. and we would have to close our order only if the business day closes below this level.





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 22, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0748. Within this wave there are also five subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave 5 still developing from 1.0401.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0486-1.0665, 1.0665-1.0181-1.0401, 1.0401-1.0152-1.0312, 1.0312-1.0185-1.0263.
Supports:
- 0.9931-27 = confluence area of two super expanded objective points (SXOP)
- 0.9917-09 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0312 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (45-60 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 22, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 124.36. Within wave 5 there are A, B and C subwaves of smaller degree (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 122.22.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-120.61-122.22, 122.22-119.41-120.51, 120.51-119.04-119.76.
Supports:
- 118.29 = objective point (OP)
- 117.70 = OP
- 117.38 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 120.51-118.32.
Resistances:
- 119.16 = .382 retracement
- 119.41 = .50 ret
- 119.67 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis 22 September 2011



The long-awaited meeting of the FOMC last night has been a rather disappointing event for investors, since the official launch of "Operation Twist" has failed to stimulate them. One factor that may have destabilized the markets could be a clear division between Fed policy makers when reaching this solution. Three members of the total (Fisher, Plosser and Kocherlakota) have voted against the plan, a fact that reflects the disruption and disunity plaguing European policy decisions lately.

The "Operation Twist" from the Fed is basically in line with market expectations and involve the purchase of $ 400 billion more Treasury bonds of longer duration (6-30 years) and at the same time selling the same amount of Treasury securities in the short term of 3 years or less. Moreover, the change would maintain its current capital reinvestment program for short maturity securities. However, the bearish assessment of the economy by the FOMC has disappointed the market. As with the August meeting, Fisher, Kocherlakota, Plosser and dissent regarding the action to take. This division should not be a surprise to anyone who has heard his opinion on other monetary changes. As for the potencialeficacia, we doubt that this will provide a major change. In simplistic terms, we doubt that the U.S. loan have been hampered so far by the rates out of reach, but rather by a fear of a recession. Given that, I think it is unlikely that changing the Fed is going to have a real impact, but will be just another way to manipulate and distort asset prices. In our view, perhaps the most successful strategy, although radical, have been doing nothing, and merely expressing confidence that the U.S. economy would fit naturally by itself in due time. However, policy makers like to do something and continue to risk their already fragile credibility.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD wave analysis for September 22, 2011






During yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD currency pair confirmed our concerns over possible resumption of dynamic downside movement. At the same time, this decline became avalanche after the release of the FOMC announcement, and the 5th wave in the estimated 3rd is probably prolonged. If so, targets of the whole downtrend initiated August 19 can be moved to the 53 figure level. 

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD wave analysis for September 22, 2011







During yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD currency pair confirmed our concerns over possible resumption of dynamic downside movement. At the same time, this decline became avalanche after the release of the FOMC announcement, and the 5th wave in the estimated 3rd is probably prolonged. If so, targets of the whole downtrend initiated August 19 can be moved to the 53 figure level. 

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD Rebound , September 23, 2011 (Daily Strategy) EUR/USD The euro – United States dollar pair, there is a very high probability for the start of a corrective move upwards in the direction of price levels in the region of 1.3740. A small recovery in the markets will enable the euro – United States dollar pair to move back the important resistance level in the region of 1.4000. This is will also be the test level for the pair with regard to its ability to continue onwards and begin a new upwards trend. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== NZD/USD Rebound, September 23, 2011 (Daily Strategy) NZD/USD After fall to the historical level of 77.28, the New Zealand dollar - United States dollar pair. stagnation found in the 77.50 area, so we can see the formation of a fractal in 77.70. we have a good buying opportunity at this level as the markets have to give sellers a break and take profits. Our short term goal puts it in the weekly resistance 80.30 Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== EUR/USD wave analysis for September 23, 2011 After breaking the September 12 low yesterday the EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline and fell down to the 1.3380 level by the end of the day. Therefore we might suppose that the price is forming the inner wave structure of the 3rd wave in the indicated 5th. If so, given the correlation between the 1st and the 3rd wave in this 5th the targets for this 3rd wave might be located in a quite wide range between 1.3350 and 1.3230. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== Trading Recommendations for September 5, 2011 4-hour Timeframe Overview: According to the Forex market analysis for September 23, the price moved away from the Ichimoku Cloud and passed the first support level to begin a correction further. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 1.3302 – the second support level, which was reached by the price but not passed yet. If this level is passed the second target will be the third support level at 1.3109. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.3585), if the price fixates above this line it will denote possible end of downside movement and a signal to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show continuing downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current correction movement, this filter does not allow us to trade down now, but after the MACD reverses down we can resume selling. Trading recommendations: Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1. 3302 and further to 1. 3109. Stop Loss should be placed below 1. 3585 and stretched down as the Kijun-sen declines. It is recommended to open short positions after the MACD reverses down. In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. The chart annotation: Ichimoku indicator: Tenkan-sen — red line Kijun-Sen — blue line Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line Chinkou Span — green line Bollinger Bands indicator: 3 yellow lines MACD indicator:  The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window. Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com