Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 1, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C (from 1.0315) of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0418. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315, 1.0315-1.0533-1.0418, 1.0418-1.0685-1.0621, 1.0621-1.0720-1.0651, 1.0651-1.0719-1.0668.
Resistances:
- 1.0730 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0736 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0750 = OP
- 1.0771 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0778 = XOP
- 1.0786 = COP
- 1.0811 = XOP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0418-1.0728.
Supports:
- 1.0610 = .382 retracement
- 1.0573 = .50 ret
- 1.0536 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 1, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 126.55.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-124.26-125.33.
Supports:
- 123.91 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.71 = objective point (OP)
- 123.04 = OP
- 122.65 = COP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 126.55-124.16.
Resistances:
- 125.41 = .50 ret
- 125.68 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Oil Review for 31 August 2011

After the U.S Government announced last week a sharp increase in oil reserves, futures on crude oil closed on Wednesday with a slight decline. The decline was quite modest as the data also showed a decrease in petroleum reserves.
At the close of NYMEX trading, WTI oil futures decreased 9 cents (0.1%) to $88.81 per barrel. At the close of ICE trading, Brent oil futures increased 62 cents (0.5%) to $114.64 per barrel.
According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), petroleum reserves jumped 5.3 mln barrels last week. Refining capacity usage decreased 1.1 ppt. Petroleum reserves lost 2.8 mln barrels which supported petroleum prices and prevented them from a decrease. DOE indicator of petroleum demand advanced 2.4%. According to the data, distillates reserves went up 400 000 barrels including fuel oil and diesel oil.
Analytics expected 200 000 barrels growth of oil reserves, one million barrels decrease of petroleum reserves, and 700 000 barrels rise of distillates reserves.
Normally, a significant growth of oil reserves influences oil prices, but this time its influence was moderated by a slump of petroleum reserves and an increase of petroleum demand.
Market actors monitor weekly data releases on DOE reserves to follow oil supply and demand in the U.S., the largest oil consumer worldwide. The U.S. oil demand and its economic climate are increasing their influence on oil market against the escalating concerns of possible recovery slowdown.
However, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may break oil extraction and encourage increase of prices. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 30% chance that a “tropical wave” in the Caribbean may develop into a hurricane within 48 hours.
Wednesday’s moderate decrease shows that NYMEX quotes on oil futures dropped 7.2% in August. Futures stay below their maximum level of approximately $115 per barrel reached in May.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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EUR/CHF candlestick analysis for September 1, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the EUR/CHF currency pair is rolling back after it could not test the resistance level 1.2000. Nevertheless, the viewpoint at the pair remains bullish as the uptrend remains.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the pair formed a Long Shadows candlestick giving a bullish signal.
This candlestick shows that the pair was demonstrating downside movement during several months after an unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance level 1.3238. However it reversed near 1.0070, which means that the bears did not manage to solidify here and further the bulls started to dominate.
Break of the 1.0800 level and the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this point of view. This resulted in an upside movement to the resistance level 1.1400 where the Fibonacci level 38.2 is also located. Its break targeted the pair to 1.2000.
Upside movement is supported by the RSI divergence.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, September 01, 2011


The meeting yesterday was on the stock rises on both sides of the Atlantic, due to the expectation generated after the publication of its Proceedings, Federal Reserve that the economy will introduce new measures of monetary stimulus (QE3). In Europe, increases were more pronounced due to a fact that can ease tensions Peripheral Merkel in principle has gotten the enough support to increase the skills and power of the European rescue fund (EFSF), measures to be voted on in the German parliament on 29 September.

The news from Europe still dominate the currency market, given the persistence of the rumors about the health of financial institutions, sovereign debt and potential measures to create stability. Political officials of the European Union are pursuing a public debate about the dilemmas that exist, but fail to reach agreement.

Today the market is looking forward to the publication of official employment data difficult to read: If you could either feed disappoint even the expectation of a QE3, helping the market, or bring back the market in its downward course, if the published data is positive, the same scenario but in reverse. That is why there is additional stress not only for the data but also regarding its interpretation.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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CAD/JPY Buy Above 79.00, September 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







CAD/JPY



The sharp decline in the price of Canadian dollar-yen pair Japanese stopped exactly on the crucial support level of 77.50, representing a potential signal of a base floor of a new sequence that can reach upward climb to the top price levels of around 83 Japanese yen and higher still.


To convince flatly that the intentions of the pair will remain positive in the period close, for it has to overcome the resistance level of 79.00 and testing. On the contrary, it is important to note the possibility of a new wave downward based on the pattern of stagnation that developed during the last month. The bottom of the pattern is around the 77.00 price levels, so that a drop to this level can act as a trigger for a new purchase at a low price and attractive.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD Bullish Above 1.6190 , September 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD

During yesterday the pound lost ground, because the Net Lending to Individuals turned out to be negative. Anyway the fact of keeping intact the U.S. interest rate for two years and comments about a third incentive plan impede the dollar will rise.



In my view, the pound-dollar pair is also convenient to purchase their current price levels, but should pay attention to the level of proof of $ 1.6020. This level has to be overcome to allow the pair to continue to rise. Our price target over the medium term is located around the significant resistance level of 1.6560, dollars per pound.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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GBP/USD wave analysis for September 1, 2011






As expected earlier, during yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD resumed downside movement within the 5th wave of the whole trend downside section initiated August 19. At the same time the inner wave structure of this 5th wave has become quite complicated. In the meantime given the current MACD divergence we have all reasons to suppose that the current downside movement is about to be finished and the price might move to the 1.6400 after the 62 figure level is tested.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 2, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C (from 1.0315) of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0418. And the latter has four subwaves (colored red in the chart), with wave 4 still developing from 1.0771. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315, 1.0315-1.0533-1.0418, 1.0418-1.0685-1.0621.
Resistances:
- 1.0771 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0786 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0888 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0418-1.0771.
Supports:
- 1.0636 = .382 retracement
- 1.0595 = .50 ret
- 1.0553 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 2, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 126.55. And the latter also has its A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 125.33.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-124.26-125.33.
Supports:
- 123.91 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.71 = objective point (OP)
- 123.04 = OP
- 122.65 = COP
- 121.95 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 126.55-124.11.
Resistances:
- 125.04 = .382 retracement
- 125.33 = .50 ret
- 125.62 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for September 2, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP pair is rolling back slightly after an unsuccessful attempt to break the upper limit of the trading range 0.8891-0.8642. Nevertheless in case the pair closes above 0.8891 short positions should be closed as it will target the pair to 0.9000.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was demonstrating strong upside movement after a fail to break 0.8720. However, it reversed near 0.9083. It means that the bears activated near 0.9100 and did not allow the bulls to fixate.
Fixation below the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 denotes that this point of view is correct. This caused a decline to the support level 0.8860 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located as well. Its break caused downside movement to 0.8720. Fixation below 0.8720 enabled the pair to reach 0.8600.
As mentioned before, in case the pair closes above the resistance level 0.8891 short positions should be closed as this break will target the pair to 0.9000.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD wave analysis for September 2, 2011






Yesterday’s positive sentiment of the currency markets towards the dollar enabled the GBP/USD pair to decline further and reach the 1.6130 level later in the day, and the 5th wave in the 5th became prolonged. In the meantime given the inner wave dimension of the whole downside section of the trend initiated August 19, the upside correction movement might begin either from the high reached yesterday or from the levels near the 60 figure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/JPY Bullish Outlook ,September 02, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






EUR/JPY



The pair euro-yen Japanese usually reflects the market conditions that directly affect it. The technical picture suggests that the pair is on the threshold of very important support level. From a technical perspective, accumulating signs of a possible change in direction of movement of the pair. A new sequence could lead to bullish euro-yen Japanese to previous peak levels around 113.50 or even more up to 117.00 yen per euro.







Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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EUR/USD Technical Overview Based on the Regression Channels System for September 2, 2011



4-hour Timeframe




Technical Data:
Head channel of linear regression: direction – side
Low channel of linear regression: direction – up
Moving average (20; smoothed): direction – down
CCI: -138.8983.



Commentary:
On September 2, the euro is trading below the low channel, but the both channels are not moving downward. Therefore, speculating on a fall is not recommended. A sideward movement of the head channel signalizes an upward reversal of a global downward trend. A downward movement of the low channel means a trend’s short-term upward movement. Currently, the price is trading below the moving and the Murray level of 5/8. Therefore, the price target is at the Murray level of 4/8 at 1.4160. In case the price reaches the target, its next target will be at the level of 3/8 at 1.4038. Please also note that the Heiken-Ashi indicator colored bars blue signifying a local downward movement. As the moving average is moving downward with the price trading below it, a downward movement is the most promising. Wait until one channel has turned downward and start trading. The CCI indicator is approximately at the -100 level indicating a slight overbought.

The Closest Support Levels:
S1 – 1.4160
S2 – 1.4038
S3 – 1.3916

The Closest Resistance Levels:
R1 – 1.4282
R2 – 1.4404
R3 – 1.4526

Trading Recommendations:
EUR/USD Forex market analysis reveals renewal of a downward movement. The current price target is the Murray level of 4/8 at 1.4160. However, speculating on a fall is not recommended. Speculate on a rise only after the price has fixed above the moving.
Besides technical data, please always take into account fundamental data and its release date.

The Chart Annotation:
Head channel of the linear regression – unidirectional blue lines.
Low channel of the linear regression – unidirectional purple lines.
CCI – a blue line in the indicator’s window.
Moving average (20; smoothed) – a blue line in the price chart.
Murray levels – multicolored horizontal lines.
Heiken-Ashi indicator – indicator coloring bars blue of purple.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Nice analysis. Instaforex the best.