Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for September 13, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP pair is rolling back slightly after a sharp decline to 0.8500. Nevertheless the viewpoint at the pair remains bearish.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was demonstrating strong upside movement after a fail to break 0.8720. However, it reversed near 0.9083. It means that the bears activated near 0.9100 and did not allow the bulls to fixate.

Fixation below the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 denotes that this point of view is correct. This caused a decline to the support level 0.8860 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located as well. Its break caused downside movement to 0.8720. Fixation below 0.8720 enabled the pair to reach 0.8500.
As mentioned before, in case the pair closes above the resistance level 0.8891 short positions should be closed as this break will target the pair to 0.9000.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, September 14, 2011



All European stock markets closed yesterday in the red, as investors are trying to escape the danger of contagion in the eurozone. The problem: the suspicion of imminent insolvency collective Greek. Even the French government is preparing for such insolvency, promising its big banks, which are flooded by Greek bonds - the liquidity necessary for ensuring its solvency.

There should be no such concern for the French banks since the summer of 200 passed the test of financial stress. But now reports suggest that most banks are severely undercapitalized French-up to 273.2 billion U.S. dollars - and this is beginning to worry investors.

Therefore, investors have fled from Europe to send money back to American and Asian markets. This has driven these markets, if only slightly, an average rise of 1% for both American DIJA (11 061) and for the Japanese Nikkei (8588). In Italy, government bonds are looking to raise their yields and the Italian government, which has a debt of 1.9 billion euros, is desperately seeking investors. According to reports, China could be your new buyer.

There is a scenario of global deceleration, mainly influenced by the debt problems of Europe and the delicate economic situation facing the U.S., which now has a population growth of around 1% that fails to reduce the high levels of unemployment. In this environment, emerging countries, mainly Latin Americans, although they are entrenched in a situation with respect to external shocks, and are not immune to a possible worsening of the fiscal crisis of the G3 debt and feel the impact, especially relating to external trade (real channel) and capital flows (financial channel).

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD wave analysis for September 14, 2011







Yesterday during the whole day the EUR/USD currency pair was trading between 1.3570 and 1.3730 levels. At the same time the formation of the expected 4th wave in the 3rd, or c, was continued. It should be mentioned that given the current inner wave structure of this 4th wave we might expect that its targets are located between 1.3750 and 1.3800. In the meantime, in case the euro finds enough power to continue the upside movement to higher price levels, the inner wave dimension of the 3rd wave, or c, will demand corresponding corrections.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/JPY Bullish Outlook September 14 2011 (Daily Strategy)







GBP/JPY



The British pound-yen pair Japanese did fall below the lowest point recorded in the fall of the beginning of August registering its new low in 120.67, just below its crucial support level of 120.82. If the pair-British pound Japanese yen, closing the week above the 120.80 level this will represent an important signal about the possible termination of the wave bearish.



It is estimated that the pair will not drop much as the other markets, can be invested so blunt. The positive deviation being carried in the MACD indicator estimation strengthens the low price of the pair can now serve as a good entry point from a long-term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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CAD/JPY Buy Above 79.00, September 14, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






CAD/JPY

The Canadian dollar-yen pair Japanese, accurately represents the state of the markets to fluctuate horizontally for more than a month, apparently in anticipation before the Fed announcement within a few days. The pair have time to build another wave downward toward the bottom of its range of stagnation around 75.90 and create a good opportunity to purchase. Still, if from here continue to rise and overcome the resistance of 79.00, this will represent a signal of low-end markets and the beginning of a new upward sequence.



Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 15, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart) from 1.0668. Within this wave there are also A, B and С subwaves (colored red in the chart).
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0486-1.0665, 1.0665-1.0259-1.0379, 1.0379-1.0181-1.0299.
Supports:
- 1.0177 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0128 = COP
- 1.0101 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9979-73 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and OP
- 0.9927 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0665-1.0181.
Resistances:
- 1.0366 = .382 retracement
- 1.0423 = .50 ret
- 1.0480 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (55-65 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 15, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 124.36.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-121.27-122.55, 122.55-120.68-121.40.
Supports:
- 120.24 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.77 = objective point (OP)
- 119.53-46 = confluence area of two OP's
- 119.11 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 118.68 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- etc.
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 122.55 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/JPY candlestick analysis for September 15, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY currency pair is demonstrating consolidation after a sharp decline earlier. Nevertheless the viewpoint at the pair remains bearish as the downtrend remains.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY formed a Long Shadows candlestick indicating a decline confirmed further. This candlestick was formed amid a rollback after a breakthrough of an upside channel, which means that the bears dominate on the market.
Besides, the currency pair broke the support level 110.10 which proves this point of view. Further another bearish combination Three Falling Methods was formed, which intensified the downside movement. At the same time a break of the Fibonacci projection level 61.8 targeted the pair to the support level 106.75. Break of 106.75 will probably lead to a decline to a psychologically relevant support level 100.00.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 107.85 as its break will cause upside movement to 110.10.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, September 15, 2011



There is a scenario of global slowdown, mainly influenced by the debt problems of Europe and the delicate economic situation facing the U.S., which now has a population growth of around 1% that fails to reduce the high levels of unemployment. In this environment, emerging countries, mainly Latin Americans, although they are entrenched in a situation with respect to external shocks, and are not immune to a possible worsening of the fiscal crisis of the G3 debt and feel the impact, especially relating to external trade (real channel) and capital flows (financial channel).

The reduction in global demand has added to concern policy makers in emerging countries, which suffer a contraction in aggregate demand in their economies. The exhibition of Latin American countries to the vagaries of the business cycle in developed economies, unlike other historical moments, is relatively low, Mexico is the exception because it depends heavily on the U.S. economic cycle. However, the main trading partners in the region, as is the case of China has a high exposure to economic problems that may arise in the advanced economies, and could spread to Latin America indirectly.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/JPY wave analysis for September 15, 2011







Yesterday the USD/JPY continued recent decline and tested the 76,60 level, thus complicating the wave situation within the almost horizontal triangle even more. In the meantime, at the moment it is quite difficult to predict the form that the c wave of this triangle can eventually get. We are waiting for the situation to become clearer.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 16, 2011 AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart) from 1.0668. Within this wave there are also four subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave 4 still developing from 1.0181. Tthe targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0665-1.0181 and expansions off 1.0181-1.0299-1.0186, 1.0186-1.0350-1.0298. Resistances: - 1.0366 = .382 retracement - 1.0377 = expanded objective point (XOP) - 1.0399 = contracted objective point (COP) - 1.0423 = .50 ret - 1.0462 = objective point (OP) If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0181 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far. Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (15-30 pips above the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 16, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 124.36.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-121.27-120.61-122.22.
Supports:
- 119.90 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.77 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.63-120.61, and expansions off 120.61-122.22-120.97.
Resistances:
- 121.96 = COP
- 122.15 = .382 retracement
- 122.58-62 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 123.09 = .618 ret
- 123.57 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD wave analysis for September 16, 2011







As expected, during yesterday trading the GBP/USD continued to form the inner wave structure of the upside correction. At the same time, the correction level 38.2% (1.6055) might act as a possible target for such correction. In the meantime, the whole correction structure would look much more convincing if the level 50.00% (1.6160) coinciding with the upper limit of the inclined corridor was hit.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/NOK Bullish Outlook September 16 , 2011 (Daily Strategy)







USD/NOK



We can see on the daily chart, the intensity of the reaction torque in relation to sub-prime crisis a few years ago shows that the pair U.S. dollar, Norwegian krone is very sensitive to extreme crisis. The pair rebounded to high levels of 6.7000 at the peak of the crisis and is estimated to reach this step to rebuild this time. The clean break of the test level of 5.7000 represents a pair of signal the start of the upward movement, to our medium term objective.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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CRUDE OIL Technical Triangle September 16, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






CRUDE OIL

The price of oil reflects the rising demand for energy when there is growth, but low in times of recession and lack of growth.

The movement upward slightly stagnating in oil prices in recent weeks, looks like a pressure cooker that was about to break into one of two possible directions. Technically, the break of the bottom line around 85.00 is a sign of continued downward movement with significant horizon downward to the $ 80 minimum. By contrast, the breakup of the top line will provide a clue to a new market recovery and a potential bullish on oil, back to the levels of resistance around $ 100 a barrel.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 19 - 23/ September, 2011 ____WEEKLY_____ Weekly - R3 = 1.4432 Weekly - R2 = 1.4184 Weekly - R1 = 1.3991 Weekly Pivot = 1.3743 Weekly - S1 = 1.3550 Weekly - S2 = 1.3302 Weekly - S3 = 1.3109 ____MONTHLY______ Monthly - R3 = 1.5091 Monthly - R2 = 1.4820 Monthly - R1 = 1.4597 Monthly Pivot = 1.4323 Monthly - S1 = 1.4103 Monthly - S2 = 1.3832 Monthly - S3 = 1.3609 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 19 - 23/ September, 2011 _____WEEKLY_____ Weekly - R3 = 1.0748 Weekly - R2 = 1.0597 Weekly - R1 = 1.0483 Weekly Pivot = 1.0332 Weekly - S1 = 1.0218 Weekly - S2 = 1.0067 Weekly - S3 = 0.9953 _____MONTHLY____ Monthly - R3 = 1.2341 Monthly - R2 = 1.1703 Monthly - R1 = 1.1207 Monthly Pivot = 1.0566 Monthly - S1 = 1.0067 Monthly - S2 = 0.9429 Monthly - S3 = 0.8930 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 19 - 23 / September, 2011 _____WEEKLY____ Weekly - R3 = 1.6054 Weekly - R2 = 1.5967 Weekly - R1 = 1.5879 Weekly Pivot = 1.5792 Weekly - S1 = 1.5704 Weekly - S2 = 1.5617 Weekly - S3 = 1.5529 _____MONTHLY____ Monthly - R3 = 1.7046 Monthly - R2 = 1.6832 Monthly - R1 = 1.6539 Monthly Pivot = 1.6325 Monthly - S1 = 1.6032 Monthly - S2 = 1.5819 Monthly - S3 = 1.5525 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For September/ 19 - 23, 2011 _____WEEKLY_____ Weekly - R3 = 78,42 Weekly - R2 = 78,00 Weekly - R1 = 77,40 Weekly Pivot = 76,97 Weekly - S1 = 76,36 Weekly - S2 = 75,94 Weekly - S3 = 75,33 _____MONTHLY___ Monthly - R3 = 83,57 Monthly - R2 = 81,90 Monthly - R1 = 79,28 Monthly Pivot = 77,61 Monthly - S1 = 74,99 Monthly - S2 = 73,32 Monthly - S3 = 70.70 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== GBP/USD wave analysis. Week review During last week trading the GBP/USD currency pair nearly passed the 57 figure level. After this it started to trade in the range trying to form the beginning of an upside correction. At the same time, given the nearness of the lower line of the old upside corridor we might suppose that the price will try to return into its limits. In this case there is a possibility that within such future upside correction structure the rate might reach 1.6055 – 1.6160. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com