Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Fundamental Analysis/ 19 October 2011



Since this morning gold is trading around 1666.00 dollars an ounce away from

its peak in the short term as evidenced by strengthening the dollar. The

precious metal remains a focus for investors who are trying desperately to

assess the vulnerability of the euro and compare it to the safe haven status

of gold. If doubts surround the euro back to a massive, gold could witness a

sudden burst of volatility when investors come into your field of trade.

During the oil yesterday had to face serious difficulties, so it will be of

great interest to follow their evolution over the next few days. After

having gained value over the past week by a sudden wave of optimism, oil and

general physical resources may be under greater scrutiny, particularly if

economic data still appear disappointing.

Moody's, one of the three major rating agencies, note down the debt of Spain

on Tuesday, following the footsteps of Standard & Poor's and Fitch. These

firms, whose credibility is at stake in a while, and have lost much of it

after Standard & Poor's slashed U.S. note last August, are making decisions

of this type with similar foundations, but very inconsistent

As for today, there will be a series of reports on housing and inflation,

following the similar readings court yesterday in the long-term investment

and the IPP. Liquidity is likely to be higher in afternoon trade today, as

it is when these releases are beginning to be published. With consumer

confidence, inflation, retail sales in the spotlight for this week and next,

the picture of future demand and growth levels are expected to be clarified

and this could moderately weigh heavily in the direction currency in the

short and medium term.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook, October 19, 2011





GBP/USD

The British pound waiting to be seen in trade with bullish results this week

after reports on inflation in the country revealed a slight rise last month.

The United Kingdom pound – United States dollar pair is testing the strong

resistance of 1.5850, this level of resistance, has served as a strong

barrier in continuation of its upward sequence, if on this occasion the pair

manages to close the daily quote, above this level for the following days we

will have a pound to trade at levels 1.6000 or more. On the other hand the

breakdown of the channel trendline could lead to the previous minimum 1.5500


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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USD/JPY wave analysis for October 19, 2011






During yesterday’s trading the USD/JPY currency pair was trading in a quite

narrow price range with price alteration amplitude less than 30 basic

points. At the same time in regard with such slightly continuous horizontal

correction there are reasons to suppose that the currency pair cannot resume

declining to the level of the 76 figure and return to the Monday’s high.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - October 20, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are two subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 122.58. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 116.91-122.58, and expansions off 122.58-119.93-121.64.
Supports:
- 120.00 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.75 = .50 ret
- 119.08 = .618 ret
- 118.99 = objective point (OP)
- 117.35 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-116.78 and expansions off 116.78-120.78-116.91, 116.91-122.58-119.93.
Resistances:
- 123.38-43 = confluence area of XOP and COP
- 123.80 = .50 retracement

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices as well).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - October 20, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A, and B subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave B is developing from 1.0371 against the uptrend. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9865-1.0371, 0.9387-1.0371, and expansions off 1.0371-1.0117-1.0353.
Supports:
- 1.0118 = .50 retracement
- 1.0099 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0058 = .618 ret
- 0.9995 = .382 ret
- 0.9942 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9879 = .50 ret
- 0.9763 = .618 ret
- 0.9688 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the upside and breaks above 1.0371, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9387-1.0371-1.0117.
Resistances:
- 1.0371 = previous peak
- 1.0725 = COP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices as well).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, 20 October 2011



According to its status as world reserve currency, the dollar began to

strengthen yesterday and continued to grow during the Asian trading session.

The dollar strengthened against all currencies with greater liquidity,

except the Japanese yen, with the overall negative tone, as well as internal

factors. According to the "Beige Book" of the Fed, which was published

yesterday, the expectations of companies in the U.S. about the

sustainability of economic recovery have worsened, despite signs of growth

in September. However, the president of the Atlanta federal bank, Dennis

Lockhart, and the chairman of reserve bank of St. Louis, James Ballard,

expressed confidence in the U.S. avoid recession.

In Athens, on the other hand, the Parliament may approve today a new package

of austerity measures, despite the continued protests in the streets, which

are crippling the economy. The new package includes further reductions in

pensions and public sector wages, higher taxes and even layoffs of 30,000

employees. "Without these measures, the budget of 2011 will not run as well

as the budget for 2012," said the finance minister of Greece before the

vote.

Since this morning gold is trading around 1620.00 dollars an ounce, shedding

light on the confusion felt by many investors. The precious metal reached

record highs just a couple of months ago, but over the past month languished

entirely, as traders decided to wait a clear way forward. Economic data

proved to be quite pessimistic in the world, including countries from the

likes of China. This put a brake on the commodities market, but

nevertheless, in the last week of physical resources experienced some

improvement in performance. The same could be said of the stock market, as

evidenced by a degree of stability after experiencing a massive wave of

sales during the months of August and September. It is worth noting that

investors who bet on further erosion in the stock exchange and some must be

wondering when will the desired results. Perhaps the wave of sales

experienced by the euro and the international stock market found grounds for

rest.

What is certain is that in the coming days will know each other significant

economic data. In this sense, today in the United States will publish the

Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales, the fact is that all signs

indicate that the U.S. housing sector still in the midst of a depression.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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GOLD Bullish Outlook, October 20, 2011


[img]http://forex-images.instaforex.com/userfiles/20111020/goldoctober20.gif

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GOLD

The spot gold prices, failed to move above the resistance level at 1701.50

dollars (weekly resistance), which limits the time to rise. Forex traders

should note that a break below $ 1,594 could open the door to go back again,

at least $ 1,530 in September and continue to fall to 1450 dollars an ounce.

However, this level of 1594 dollars in the price of gold, is a good point of

enter for a bullish position, we are very vigilant because at this level may

be a rebound, we must be careful about buying positions, can be increased

positions as the price level to rise, the stop loss level, place it just

below 1590 dollars an ounce. . Our short term goal we will place in 1755

dollars for an ounce of gold.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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USD/CAD Buy Above 1.0015, October 20, 2011



[img]http://forex-images.instaforex.com/userfiles/20111020/cadoctober20.gif[

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USD/CAD

The U.S. Dollar - Canadian Dollar pair, rose so sharplyas a result of

declines in financial markets and the flight to the U.S. dollar, reaching

its peak on 04 October at 1.0645. since there has corrected nearly 500 pips.

Today the pair is negotiated within the range 1.0100-1.0230. According to

estimates, we believe the pair finds the strong support of the weekly pivot

around 0.9998
The key enters level, can be placed on this level 1.0015 will be a good

point for a long position buying up to 1.0500 resistance levels.

The MACD indicator, continues to show that the downtrend not yet finished

and that could have a strengthening of the Canadian dollar.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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USD/JPY wave analysis for October 20, 2011





Yesterday the USD/JPY currency pair was trading in a narrow price range with

price alteration amplitude at 18 basis points. Tedious trading in such a

narrow corridor implies the calm before the storm. However, among equivalent

scenarios of price directions the most probable at the moment is a downward

movement towards a 76 figure level.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - October 21, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A, and B subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave B is developing from 1.0371 against the uptrend. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9865-1.0371, 0.9387-1.0371, and expansions off 1.0371-1.0117-1.0353.
Supports:
- 1.0118 = .50 retracement
- 1.0099 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0058 = .618 ret
- 0.9995 = .382 ret
- 0.9942 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9879 = .50 ret
- 0.9763 = .618 ret
- 0.9688 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the upside and breaks above 1.0371, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9387-1.0371-1.0117, 1.0117-1.0353-1.0146.
Resistances:
- 1.0382 = OP
- 1.0528 = XOP
- 1.0725 = COP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - October 21, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are two subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 122.58. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 116.91-122.58, and expansions off 122.58-119.93-121.64.
Supports:
- 120.00 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.75 = .50 ret
- 119.08 = .618 ret
- 118.99 = objective point (OP)
- 117.35 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-116.78 and expansions off 116.78-120.78-116.91, 116.91-122.58-119.93, 119.93-121.64-120.31.
Resistances:
- 122.02 = OP
- 123.08 = XOP
- 12343 = COP
- 123.80 = .50 retracement

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, 21 October 2011



The meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels has created uncertainty

about who is given a solution to the debt crisis in Europe. This has limited

the purchase of precious metals this week. just as the expectation of

growing markets, and makes the movements, as the currency market is

concerned, be deliberate and slow.

Anyway, it was announced that the summit on Sunday will not be final, and

there will be another meeting of leaders in the coming days. In this way it

is delaying a decent exit the debt problem in Greece, and the capitalization

of banks.

This also suggests that the solution to be provided will not be sustainable,

or at least not that will satisfy the markets. In line with what has been

happening in recent months, offer measures that solve the problems for a few

days, and much worse, several times announced and not carried out.

On the other hand, in Greece riots continue, if current economic conditions

persist, ie, if the debt crisis in Europe continues to escalate or violence

in the country Hellenic European leaders continue or are unable to find

solutions their real crisis, probably the greenback could again be a haven

asset. However, a greater pressure of the debt crisis in the euro could lead

to new highs in gold.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com



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EUR/AUD Buy Above 1.3600, October 21, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)




EUR/AUD

The Euro - Australian dollar pair collapses in an exceptionally incisive way

during a period of more than two years and a half! This is one of the most

aggressive major trends in the markets, certainly in the context of serial

weakening outside the euro area following the debt crisis on the continent,

and the good standing of the Australian economy as well as the large gap in

interest rates, which was expanded in recent years for Australia.

What is very interesting to discover that the pair has moved in a range of

1.2900 to 1.4200 for all the great fall. We have good reason to believe that

there is a possibility that such a correction would get started already in

the short term, following the temporary solution and the relative calm on

the problem of the European zone. It is assumed that even the smallest

correction should push the pair towards the resistance of 1.5180 Australian

dollars per euro.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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USD/JPY wave analysis for October 21, 2011






The 30 basic points growth that the USD/JPY demonstrated during yesterday’s

trader is a good indicator of yen market activity in the current conditions.

At the same time such upside movement makes us remember about unreached

close targets located near the levels 77.70 – 78.00. In the meantime the

possibility of the currency decline resumption to the 76 figure level still

remains.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for October 21, 2011





Overview:
According to the Forex market analysis for October 21, the sideways movement

is still on, which is indicated by the Bollinger bands, therefore it is

recommended to stay out of market. In the flat the Ichimoku is forming false

signals, which is another reason to refrain from trading in the nearest

time. The price is in the corridor between the levels 1.3680 and 1.3910. The

Bollinger band show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and

directed sideways, therefore it is recommended to wait for the trend

direction to be determined and start trading afterwards. The MACD is

ascending, which indicates current upside movement within the sideways

channel, however the trading should not be started before the trend movement

begins.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the end of the sideways movement.

The Bollinger bands should start diverging and the the signal from Ichimoku

is formed.


In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental

data and the time of their release.



The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
 The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - October 24, 2011 GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are two subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 122.58. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 116.91-122.58. Supports: - 119.75 = .50 ret - 119.08 = .618 ret If the price keeps advancing the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-116.78 and expansions off 116.78-120.78-116.91, 116.91-122.58-119.93, 119.93-121.64-120.31, 120.31-122.02-120.71. Resistances: - 122.42 = objective point (OP) - 123.08 = expanded objective point (XOP) - 123.43-48 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and XOP - 123.80 = .50 retracement Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (30-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (60-75 pips below the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - October 24, 2011 AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave C is developing from 1.0117. The targets above the current price are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9387-1.0371-1.0117, 1.0117-1.0353-1.0146, 1.0146-1.0298-1.0163, 1.0203-1.0364-1.0305. Resistances: - 1.0466 = objective point (OP) - 1.0528 = expanded objective point (XOP) - 1.0561-65 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and XOP If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0146 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far. Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (40-50 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (70-85 pips below the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 24- 28 / October, 2011


While many individual traders planning to enter the pivot, and negotiating

the move to outside the pivot, professionals think backwards. Novice traders

need to take a different approach to enter with better odds that might be

missing.

It is almost always more successfully (a) to look for a stage of congestion

instead of a stage of trend - due to the fact that to that the majority of

days are days in congestion, and (b)exit at the pivot, because most traders

are looking to start an investment and the volume increases.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4249
Weekly - R2 = 1.4081
Weekly - R1 = 1.3988
Weekly Pivot = 1.3820
Weekly - S1 = 1.3727
Weekly - S2 = 1.3559
Weekly - S3 = 1.3466







____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5083
Monthly - R2 = 1.4733
Monthly - R1 = 1.4060
Monthly Pivot = 1.3710
Monthly - S1 = 1.3037
Monthly - S2 = 1.2687
Monthly - S3 = 1.2014




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 24- 28 / October, 2011


While many individual traders planning to enter the pivot, and negotiating

the move to outside the pivot, professionals think backwards. Novice traders

need to take a different approach to enter with better odds that might be

missing.

It is almost always more successfully (a) to look for a stage of congestion

instead of a stage of trend - due to the fact that to that the majority of

days are days in congestion, and (b)exit at the pivot, because most traders

are looking to start an investment and the volume increases.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4249
Weekly - R2 = 1.4081
Weekly - R1 = 1.3988
Weekly Pivot = 1.3820
Weekly - S1 = 1.3727
Weekly - S2 = 1.3559
Weekly - S3 = 1.3466







____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5083
Monthly - R2 = 1.4733
Monthly - R1 = 1.4060
Monthly Pivot = 1.3710
Monthly - S1 = 1.3037
Monthly - S2 = 1.2687
Monthly - S3 = 1.2014










Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 24- 28 / October, 2011



While many individual traders planning to enter the pivot, and negotiating

the move to outside the pivot, professionals think backwards. Novice traders

need to take a different approach to enter with better odds that might be

missing.

It is almost always more successfully (a) to look for a stage of congestion

instead of a stage of trend - due to the fact that to that the majority of

days are days in congestion, and (b)exit at the pivot, because most traders

are looking to start an investment and the volume increases.

_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 78,94
Weekly - R2 = 78,21
Weekly - R1 = 77,24
Weekly Pivot = 76,51
Weekly - S1 = 75,54
Weekly - S2 = 74,81
Weekly - S3 = 73,84






_____MONTHLY___
Monthly - R3 = 79,64
Monthly - R2 = 78,74
Monthly - R1 = 77,91
Monthly Pivot = 77,01
Monthly - S1 = 76,18
Monthly - S2 = 75,28
Monthly - S3 = 74.45




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 24- 28 / October, 2011

While many individual traders planning to enter the pivot, and negotiating

the move to outside the pivot, professionals think backwards. Novice traders

need to take a different approach to enter with better odds that might be

missing.

It is almost always more successfully (a) to look for a stage of congestion

instead of a stage of trend - due to the fact that to that the majority of

days are days in congestion, and (b)exit at the pivot, because most traders

are looking to start an investment and the volume increases.




_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6416
Weekly - R2 = 1.6194
Weekly - R1 = 1.6074
Weekly Pivot = 1.5852
Weekly - S1 = 1.5732
Weekly - S2 = 1.5510
Weekly - S3 = 1.5390





_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7066
Monthly - R2 = 1.6667
Monthly - R1 = 1.6125
Monthly Pivot = 1.5726
Monthly - S1 = 1.5184
Monthly - S2 = 1.4785
Monthly - S3 = 1.4243






Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 24- 28 / October, 2011




While many individual traders planning to enter the pivot, and negotiating

the move to outside the pivot, professionals think backwards. Novice traders

need to take a different approach to enter with better odds that might be

missing.

It is almost always more successfully (a) to look for a stage of congestion

instead of a stage of trend - due to the fact that to that the majority of

days are days in congestion, and (b)exit at the pivot, because most traders

are looking to start an investment and the volume increases.

_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0723
Weekly - R2 = 1.0551
Weekly - R1 = 1.0462
Weekly Pivot = 1.0290
Weekly - S1 = 1.0201
Weekly - S2 = 1.0029
Weekly - S3 = 0.9940





_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1564
Monthly - R2 = 1.1167
Monthly - R1 = 1.0414
Monthly Pivot = 1.0017
Monthly - S1 = 0.9264
Monthly - S2 = 0.8867
Monthly - S3 = 0.8114




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011




More analysis - at instaforex.com