Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 3, 2024

GBP/USD
Amid investors' flight from risk on Tuesday, the British pound lost 111 pips and breached the support of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. This morning, the price quickly returned above the line, but the bulls' main goal for now is to close the day above the nearest resistance at 1.2645, otherwise, we may see a consolidation below this mark, and the bears could gain the upper hand, pushing the quote to 1.2524.



The Marlin oscillator has settled in a downtrend, so sellers have a good chance. If the price consolidates above 1.2645, the price could rise towards 1.2745, and a breakthrough of 1.2745 will provide an optimistic outlook towards 1.2930 - the upper band of a long-term price channel.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines, as well as the level of 1.2645. The Marlin oscillator has also settled in negative territory. Considering the uptrend, we can consider the pound's decline as a short-term effect. The first signal for an upward move will be the price consolidating above the level of 1.2645, further confirmed by the price breaking above the MACD line and the 1.2705 mark. However, if the price fails to exhibit growth, it will fall, with 1.2524 as the target. We await further developments.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 4, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday's US ISM business activity data for December showed improvement, but investors continued to move away from risk, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.80%, and the euro falling by 17 pips along with it. The manufacturing PMI rose from 46.7 to 47.4, and the employment index in the manufacturing sector increased from 45.8 to 48.1. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting confirmed the December theses of Williams, Bostic, and Mester regarding the market's reassessment of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy easing. The US will release employment reports both today and tomorrow – we expect market volatility to rise.



On the daily chart, the price has tested the target support level of 1.0905, and the Marlin oscillator's signal line is indicating a potential bullish reversal. Perhaps, good data on new jobs in the private sector will restore risk appetite, and the euro will rise towards the level of 1.1033. If the price consolidates below 1.0905, it increases the risk of a decline towards 1.0825 and further to 1.0790, the MACD indicator line.



On the 4-hour chart, Marlin is preparing for an upward reversal (the green area). Currently, nothing is disrupting the technical reversal moment. We are waiting for the ADP employment data in the private sector. The forecast is optimistic – 115,000 jobs added compared to 103,000 in November.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 5, 2024

EUR/USD:
Yesterday's US employment data, as we anticipated, exceeded expectations. According to ADP, 164,000 jobs were created in the non-farm sector in December, compared to a forecast of 115,000 and 101,000 in November. Initial jobless claims also dropped to 202,000 from 220,000 the previous week (forecast was 216,000). These reports renewed optimism about today's Non-Farm Payrolls report and other unemployment sub-indices. Even the expected 170,000 new jobs in the non-farm sector are considered a good figure.



As a result, the Dow Jones inched up by 0.03% yesterday, while the S&P 500 was less responsive, with a -0.34% decline. However, European stock markets closed the day with gains, and the euro was up by 22 pips.

On the daily chart, we can see a price reversal from the balance indicator line and the target level of 1.0905. The Marlin oscillator is rising but has not yet left the bearish territory. Expectations are generally positive, with the price expected to reach target resistances at 1.1033, 1.1076, and 1.1185.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is visually rising, and the Marlin oscillator, after breaking away from the base marked by the green area, is approaching the boundary of the uptrend territory. The MACD line is very close to the 1.1033 level, emphasizing the significance of this resistance. Therefore, overcoming it could extend the price's growth in the medium-term.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 8, 2024

EUR/USD
As we anticipated in previous reviews, the US employment data came out better than expected. In the non-farm sector, 164,000 new jobs were created compared to the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at the November level of 3.7%, instead of the expected 3.8%. However, the proportion of the economically active population sharply decreased from 62.8% to 62.5%. This may be due to seasonal factors. The markets showed increased volatility in response to this data, with most assets, including currencies, gold, and even the Dow Jones, ending the day close to their opening levels.



The euro started the day with gains. The price is trying to move away from the support at 1.0905 in order to gravitate towards the target level of 1.1033. Breaking through the nearest resistance will open the path to 1.1076. By that time, the Marlin oscillator may have already risen above the zero line, providing fresh momentum for growth.



On the 4-hour chart, the price and Marlin oscillator have formed a convergence. The oscillator is already in positive territory, helping the price approach 1.1033. This level is strong and significant because the MACD line is located nearby.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 9, 2024

GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound pierced through the resistance level at 1.2745 with its upper shadow, and today's opening price is exactly at this level, indicating further upward movement. Exchange Rates 09.01.2024 analysis



The Marlin oscillator crossed into the uptrend territory during the Asian session. A short-term rise is unfolding with the initial target at 1.2826. Beyond that, the price faces a challenging decision: to either surpass the upper band of the global descending channel around 1.2910 or break through it and reach the target level of 1.2940.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to rise above the support at 1.2745. In doing so, it is moving above both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator continues to adapt to the uptrend territory. We are looking for the price to reach the initial target level at 1.2826.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 10, 2024

EUR/USD
The euro failed to develop an upward movement on Monday or Tuesday. Part of this is related to the U.S. Congress passing the budget for the current year, removing the threat of a shutdown. However, the stock market also showed some weakness yesterday, restraining the potential rise in risk currencies. However, the stock market's situation is more understandable – it is waiting for a flow of corporate reports for the 4th quarter, waiting for new data on inflation in the United States, and waiting for clarity on interest rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is forecasted to increase from 3.1% YoY to 3.2% YoY, while the core CPI may show a decrease from 4.0% YoY to 3.8% YoY. For major financial institutions reporting on Friday, profits are expected to range from $0.92 per share to $8.75 per share. For now, the outlook for the stock market is optimistic. We are waiting for the S&P 500 to surpass a historical high (4817), possibly within a week, and then it has three main targets: 4890, 5028, 5120. A reversal with a decline could occur from any of these levels in a few months, and divergences on longer timeframes (week, month) will be ready.

From this perspective, the euro certainly has the potential to rise in the coming weeks – the direct correlation with the stock market remains intact, but there may be reversals within this upward movement.



At the moment, the price is moving above the support at 1.0905 but is already pushing through the daily balance indicator line. If the price closes below this level, this would pave the way for the price to reach the target of 1.0825, and the MACD line is approaching this area, tempting the euro to test this support's strength. However, even if the price breaches the support, the uptrend is unlikely to push the price to surpass 1.0730, which is the target level near the embedded line of the global price channel. The optimistic scenario is growth within the range of 1.1033/76 from current levels. We are waiting for tomorrow's US inflation data.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance indicator line, and the MACD line has turned downward. Therefore, the Marlin oscillator may not be able to withstand this pressure and will soon move into a downtrend territory. We have to wait for tomorrow's data, and the market will reveal its choice. To reiterate, if the market's choice is not in favor of the euro (risk), the move could largely be false.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2024

EUR/USD
Wednesday was generally spent waiting for today's US inflation data. However, optimism and risk appetite prevailed; the S&P 500 rose by 0.57%, gold fell by 0.26%, and the euro gained 40 pips and continues to rise this morning.

From this perspective, the euro certainly has the potential to rise in the coming weeks – the direct correlation with the stock market remains intact, but there may be reversals within this upward movement.



On the daily chart, the euro is rising above the balance indicator line, but the Marlin oscillator has not yet left the downtrend territory. It may leave this area after the reports. In this case, the price may aim for the nearest level at 1.1033. The subsequent move above this level will open up the second target at 1.1076. Beyond that is 1.1185, the peak from March 2022.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has not yet received a full-fledged bullish signal, as it needs to move above the MACD line, above the 1.1018 level. In general, the nearest resistance for the price can be seen in the range of 1.1018-1.1033. The Marlin oscillator is confidently moving in the uptrend territory.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2024

EUR/USD
U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December: the so-called core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.9% from a year ago, compared with an estimated 3.8%, with November's value at 4.0% from a year earlier, and the CPI rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on a yearly basis in December. The monthly growth was 0.3%. The reaction to these figures was mainly seen in the stock market, where the S&P 500 initially lost 0.94%. However, the market eventually turned around, and the index closed the day down by only -0.07%, while the Dow Jones gained 0.04%. Investors did not change their opinion regarding the first rate cut in March; in fact, they increased market expectations from 67% to 70%, mostly factoring in geopolitical risks. The yield on 5-year US government bonds decreased from 3.97% to 3.87%. The euro closed the day at the same level as the previous day's closing price.



As a result, the price settled above the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe. The Marlin oscillator has not yet crossed into the positive territory but is close to doing so. The price is facing two target levels: 1.1033 and 1.1076 (the peak on April 14th). Beyond that, the price will have to fight for the 1.1185 level.



On the 4-hour chart, the technical picture has not changed. Only the MACD indicator line has slightly fallen and is now closer to the price at 1.1008. Overcoming this resistance will allow the price to confidently target the 1.1033 level. The Marlin oscillator is ready to support the price at any moment since it is in the uptrend territory.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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