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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 20, 2023

EUR/USD
The euro did not linger in the range of 1.0905/46, broke out of it and gained 57 pips on Tuesday. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive territory, and the price can continue to move to the nearest target level of 1.1033 and rise to the upper band of the price channel, coinciding with the target level of 1.1076 (the peak of April 14).



Obviously, the pre-New Year rally is in full swing, if we count the stock market since October 30th. The Dow Jones stock index sets a new record every day. The S&P 500 is slightly behind. Yesterday, oil rose by 1.80%, and copper rose by 1.36%. The crisis, along with the euro's decline, is expected in the new year.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is progressing above the indicator lines, which are rising, and the Marlin oscillator has settled and is progressing in the uptrend territory. The possible correction is supported by the level of 1.0946, but overall, we expect the pair to rise to the specified target levels.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2023

EUR/USD
The cause of yesterday's corrective move can be attributed to the stock market; the S&P 500 fell by 1.47%, and the dollar index rose by 0.26%. Of course, we won't interpret every black candle as the collapse of the pre-New Year rally or the beginning of a global crisis, as the decline was triggered by other factors, fueled by the cautious remarks of T. Barkin, R. Bostic, D. Goolsbee. Even representatives of the European Central Bank, K. Knot, M. Kazaks, J. Nagel, have leaned towards the "soft" side.

Today, the U.S. will release data on GDP for the 3rd quarter, and tomorrow, data on durable goods orders and consumer spending are expected to come out as positive. US markets open on Tuesday, and there are no clear reasons for mass closure of long positions even before the new year.



On the daily chart, the price tested support at 1.0946, and this morning, the pair is gradually rising. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is developing in a miniature triangle, a sign of an impending upward movement. The targets remain the same: 1.1033, 1.1076.



On the four-hour chart, the price is staying above both indicator lines, and there has been no consolidation below the support. Marlin has entered negative territory, which may slightly slow down the euro's recovery, possibly for the structure of the Marlin triangle on the daily chart.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 22, 2023

AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar gained 71 pips and approached the target level of 0.6815, and the upper band of the local price channel.



The Marlin oscillator has been behaving nervously recently, but a break above 0.6830 opens the way for further growth with the initial target of 0.6897 - towards the peak of July 13 with an intermediate level of 0.6872.



On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has stabilized in the uptrend territory. We are waiting for progress on this growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Analysis of Gold for December 25, 2023 - Potential for the downside movement



Technical analysis:

Gold has been trading downside in the background but I found that supply overcame demand, which is good sign for the further downside movement.

Due to the rejection of the resistance level in the background and supply present, I see potential for the further drop towards lower references.
Downside objectives are set at $2.032 and $2.017

RSI oscillator is showing downside rotation toward 50 level, which is sign od indecision and the breakout of the rising lows.

Key resistance is set at $1.270

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 26, 2023

EUR/USD
So far, the euro has reached the first bullish target at 1.1033. Now, the target is 1.1076 (the peak of April 14) at the intersection with the upper band of the price channel. Surpassing this level will open up the target of 1.1150 (the July 27 high). But first, the price needs to consolidate above 1.1033.



Today, the United States will release housing price data. The October estimate suggests a growth of 0.5%, and the composite S&P/CS-20 index, excluding seasonal fluctuations, is expected to rise to 5.0% YoY from the previous 3.9% YoY. Such data may hinder the euro's growth. On the other hand, in thin markets, movements can be unpredictable depending on the goals of major players, and these goals were bullish just a week ago.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned away from the upper band of the wedge, creating a risk of a pullback to the lower band of the wedge and an upward breakout of the line. Based on this scenario, the price may spend the entire day below the resistance of 1.1033 and only resume its upward movement tomorrow.



On the four-hour chart, the price is starting to consolidate before the reached level, and the Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive territory. Price development is occurring above the balance and MACD indicator lines. An uptrend in place.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 27, 2023

EUR/USD
The pre-New Year rally continues; S&P 500 up 0.42%, the euro up by 28 points, oil up by 1.99%, and gold up by 0.52%. The euro has surpassed the target resistance at 1.1033, and today, it opened above this level. Now the pair has one final leap to move towards 1.1076, where we might see profit-taking for the entire pre-New Year movement.



There is also room for growth in the stock market; the S&P 500 index is 0.9% away from the record high, and 2.28% away from the 4883 target along the price channel line (see the review from December 25).

On the 4-hour chart, the price has managed to consolidate above 1.1033.



Although the Marlin oscillator is in the positive territory, it feels weak, formally consolidating above the zero line. A delay in the price's growth may push the oscillator to move into negative territory. The least we can do for today is to close the day above yesterday's closing price.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Thursday December 28, 2023



Although currently Gold commodity assest still look strengthening where this is confirmed by the price movement which is above its Moving Average, but with the appearance of the Rising Wedge pattern and the deviation between price movement with Awesome Oscillator indicator, then in the near future, although gold will try to reach the level area of 2093.24-2107.79 but there is a potential for gold to fall down to its weakening up to the level of 2004.27, but this weakness potential will become invalid if the strengthen of gold still continue until it breaks above the level 2143.74.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 29, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro failed to settle above the level of 1.1076 and, with below-average volumes, returned below it. Reduced trading volumes tells us that major players are not closing long positions.



This morning, the price is rising again and pushing through the resistance at 1.1076. If it manages to stay above this mark, the 1.1185 target will become relevant again. Settling above 1.1185 will pave the way for the price to reach the target of 1.1280. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator edged down yesterday but has gone back to rising again in today's Asian session.



On the 4-hour chart, the price briefly settled below 1.1076 but quickly turned back up. This was supported by the Marlin oscillator, which reversed from the border of the downtrend territory. We expect the euro to rise further.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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EUR/USD. The first week of January: Fed minutes, Eurozone inflation, and Non-Farms

Major global trading platforms are closed on January 1st due to New Year celebrations. Therefore, we can expect a shortened but still quite interesting trading week.

Tuesday

"Monday starts on Tuesday." Typically, the first working day of the week doesn't bring important news or reports, which means that Tuesday will be no exception. During the European session, we will receive the final assessment of December's PMI data. According to most experts, the final assessment is expected to match the initial one. In particular, Germany's Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain at 43.1 points. On the one hand, this indicator remains below 50 points, indicating contraction. On the other hand, the index has been showing an upward trend for the fifth consecutive month (after plummeting to 38 points in July). If the data is not revised towards deterioration or improvement, the market will likely ignore this release. The same applies to the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which will be released during the U.S. session. Here too, the final assessment should match the initial one (48.2).

Wednesday

Key labor market data for Germany will be released. According to forecasts, unemployment in December should remain at the November level, which is 5.9%. This is a relatively high figure – the last time (before November 2023) unemployment was at this level was in June 2021.

However, the German labor market rarely has a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing Index, which will be released during the U.S. session, could provoke increased volatility. This crucial indicator has shown an uptrend from July to September (inclusive), reaching 49 points. It sharply dropped to 46.7 in October, and remained at the same level in November. According to most forecasts, it will slightly increase to 47.2 in December. This fact is unlikely to impress EUR/USD traders. However, if this indicator falls into the "red" (more precisely, if it falls below 46.7), then in that case, market participants may react strongly to the data, as dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future course of actions could rise again.



The minutes of the December Federal Reserve meeting is also set for release on Wednesday. Take note that the December meeting was the most dovish one in 2023. Instead of the widely expected "moderately hawkish" stance, the central bank expressed very accommodative comments, stating its readiness to lower interest rates in 2024 (according to the updated dot plot – by 75 basis points over the year). Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that during this meeting, Committee members discussed the timing of the rate cuts. In this context, he noted that the general expectation is that the rate cut will become the main topic for further discussion. Given the rhetoric of the accompanying statement and Powell himself, we can assume that the Fed Minutes will exert additional pressure on the greenback.

Thursday

The key economic report on Thursday is the German inflation data. According to most experts, the Consumer Price Index accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year in December, following a decline to 3.2% in November. The harmonized CPI is also expected to show growth, rising to 3.8% year-on-year (after falling to 2.8%). If these figures come in at least in line with expectations, the bulls will have another reason to push the pair higher, as German data often (almost always) correlates with the overall European data.

Friday

The euro area is set to release its inflation data on Friday. This should be viewed in light of the previous statements made by representatives of the European Central Bank. To recall, over the last two weeks of December, several members of the ECB stated that the central bank would keep interest rates at their current levels for quite a while, at least throughout the first half of 2024. The common theme of these statements is that it's too early for the eurozone to celebrate victory over inflation. If December's figures show accelerated growth, this will provide support to the euro. According to preliminary forecasts, the CPI will rise to 3.0% in December after dropping to 2.4% in November. The index will show an upward trend for the first time after seven consecutive months of decline. The core index is expected to decrease to 3.4%. If it unexpectedly surges (after four months of decline), this will place the bulls in a favorable position.

Key labor market data will be published during the U.S. session. Preliminary forecasts do not bode well for the dollar. For instance, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.9%, and the number of employed is projected to increase by just 160,000. The indicator may also disappoint dollar bulls: it is predicted that the average hourly earnings will decrease to 3.9% on an annual basis (the weakest growth rate since June 2021).

Conclusions

The EUR/USD pair still has the potential to rise. Soft Fed minutes, accelerated inflation in Germany and the eurozone, as well as weak Non-Farms, will support the pair's uptrend, assuming that all events align with the expectations of most experts. In this case, buyers can expect the pair to return to the 1.1130 level, which corresponds to the upper Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart. The primary target of the uptrend is at the 1.1250 level (the upper Bollinger Bands line on the monthly timeframe), but it's too early to talk about that price level at this point.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 2, 2024

EUR/USD
In the final trading day of 2023, the euro fell by 25 pips on below-average volume, finding support at 1.1033. Since there was no significant profit-taking, we expect the uptrend to remain intact. A break above the level of 1.1076 opens up a substantial target like 1.1185, which is the November 2021 low and the March 2022 high. We could see a bullish potential at 1.1280. The Marlin oscillator has also corrected lower, visually preparing for a reversal into a new upward wave.



All price action and oscillator movements occur within an uptrend. It's worth noting that this progress is taking place within a medium-term green-colored ascending price channel. Even if there is a break below the 1.1033 support level, we will not hastily revise the main scenario.



On the 4-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in a bearish territory but may require a trigger to return to the bullish territory. Today's reports on the final estimates of the eurozone and U.S. industrial PMIs for December may serve as a catalyst. The forecasts remain unchanged (44.2 and 48.2, respectively), but tomorrow's Manufacturing ISM for December is projected to stand at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November. We can assume that today's final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI might surprise everyone and turn out to be better than expected. Such, albeit minor, optimism could sustain risk appetite and push stock markets and counter-dollar currencies into the green zone.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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