Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/CAD candlestick analysis for August 9, 2011

The AUD/CAD currency pair is still trading down. Earlier in a daily graph the AUD/CAD has formed an Evening Star candlestick combination indicating bearish signal, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level 1.0550, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level means that this point of view is correct. If the pair fixates below the support level 1.0123 will probably lead to downside movement to 0.9937 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located. At the same time the break of 1.1023 will denote the formation of Double bottom.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.0550 level as its break will target the pair to 1.0600.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD candlestick analysis (long-term view)

The EUR/USD currency pair is still trading down this week.
Earlier in a weekly graph the EUR/USD formed Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This combination shows that the pair dropped sharply after an attempt to advance to the resistance level 1.4700, which means that the bears started to increase their influence.
Further decline is supported by the RSI indicator demonstrating a rollback from the overbought level 70.0.
Break of the support level 1.3969 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect a decline to the support level 1.3427 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 1.4700 as its break will target the pair to 1.4900. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for August 9, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP currency pair is still trading in the downtrend. However, MACD and RSI demonstrate divergence.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was demonstrating strong upside movement after a fail to break 0.8720. However, it reversed near 0.9083. It means that the bears activated near 0.9100 and did not allow the bulls to fixate.
Fixation below the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 denotes that this point of view is correct. This caused a decline to the support level 0.8860 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located as well. Its break caused downside movement to 0.8720. Fixation below 0.8720 enabled the pair to reach 0.8600.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 0.8891 as its break will target the pair to 0.9000.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, August 09, 2011


The economic agenda for today and the most important would be the rate decision from the FOMC, which could cause the Fed to announce changes in monetary policy and talks on a QE3.

In the U.S. economic recovery remains tentative and downgrade the credit crunch has left large falls in equity markets. The only hope left for the stock to soar, or at least stabilize their descent, is that the Fed would indicate in its statement today any further action on monetary policy. If this were to occur, considering also that the indices are oversold, we could see an intense surge in bags, but we think that this will not be center stage.

The Federal Reserve held its meeting today on interest rates and could discuss the introduction of a QE3 after two rounds of previous purchase of bonds, which totaled 2.3 billion dollars, and have not been enough to encourage economic growth and reduce unemployment below 9%. The central bank could announce today that the economic slowdown is more persistent than expected. Policy makers could also announce that the portfolio of the Fed could remain on record for "more time" and replace the short-term securities for longer maturities to reduce the types of long-term debt. Investors believe the Fed might leave the state to encourage both the interest rate as the balance sheet or two longer.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GOLD Sell Short, August 09, 2011 (Daily Strategy)




GOLD

This morning, gold traded at around 1776.00 U.S. dollars per ounce. Note that the precious metal remains a focal point for investors, given the large number of issues relating to the financial environment.

According to our technical perspective, the price of gold has to correct at least until the 1650,00, so we recommend selling only if price closes below the number three weekly resistance, with a target to the uptrend line.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/JPY Bullish Outlook, August 09, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





USD/JPY

The technical picture of the dollar-Japanese yen reflects the pair rebounded following the intervention, but quickly ran into resistance level (former support significant) 80.25.

The Japanese Finance Minister announced that the Bank of Japan could continue to take measures that aim to accelerate the recovery of the local economy., So any decrease in the price of the pair represents a better opportunity to take long position with a horizon upward to the high levels of resistance to 80.30 Japanese yen per dollar.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 10, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within subwave 4 (from 1.09928) of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. These four waves are part of wave A of larger degree from 1.1079 (colored royal blue in the chart). Within wave 4 there are three subwaves (colored yellow in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0064.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0255-1.0064.
Resistances:
- 1.0391 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0496 = .50 retracement
- 1.0593 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0629 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9928 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (50-80 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 10, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend from 128.87 (colored red in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves with subwave C from 127.01 still developing (colored orange red in the chart). The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-127.38-128.87, 128.87-125-36-127.01, 127.01-124.48-126.22.
Supports:
- 123.69 = objective point (OP)
- 123.50 = OP
- 123.32 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 122.13 = XOP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-124.48.
Resistances:
- 126.90 = .382 retracement
- 127.65 = .50 ret
- 128.39 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-60 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Oil review for August 10, 2011

Futures on crude oil closed with a loss on Tuesday; they dropped down to their 10-month lows after the FRS promised further economic stimulation.
By the end of NYMEX trades September futures on WTI oil declined by USD 2.01 (2.5%) to USD 79.30 per barrel. September futures on Brent and ICE oil grew cheaper by USD 1.17 and constituted USD 102.57 per barrel.
Futures on oil demonstrated abrupt fluctuations for the second session in a row. However, oil futures closed with a loss amid the US FRS having failed to curb pessimism regarding ability of politicians to support weakening economy.
The FRS signaled that it is planning to leave its key interest rate near zero level for two years more at least. At the same time it sharply increased the assessment of the US economy. Still, as there were no measures of economic growth stimulation traders continued to retreat.
Oil prices declined by more than 17% this month amid weak US economy and worsening problems of the European sovereign debt.
On Friday Standard & Poor's agency downgraded the US rating which incited concerns over the second wave of recession. It may further lower demand for oil. On Tuesday the US Energy Information Administration claimed that national demand for gasoline dropped by 2% during summer and forecasted that in 2011 demand will shrink to its low since 2002.
On Monday Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analysts stated that mild recession can push the prices down to USD 50 per barrel.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, August 10, 2011


Yesterday, the Fed pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record minimum of at least half of 2013, to encourage a recovery that is being "significantly lower" than expected. The U.S. central bank is "ready to use" additional measures to strengthen the economy, hobbled by weak recruitment and low consumer spending, said in a statement.

The problems in Europe continue the crisis is far more disturbing edges than the 2010 when it was Greece, Ireland and Portugal the epicenter.

Therefore, to curb fears that the European Central Bank is looking to enable the purchase of Italian debt securities in order to keep interest rates on such bonds will continue to rise affecting the cost of debt service in Italy and until perhaps marginalized from access to capital markets, an event that could spark a major crisis and unpredictable consequences.

A scenario like this could bring Europe back to 2008. The difference is that this time there are tax adjustments throughout the region, the ECB is raising interest rates (but signaled on Thursday that could keep pausing the rate rising cycle) and economics growing ever less.

Today there is almost nothing relevant in the macro environment, which has its next milestone on Friday with a new test to the American consumer through the retail sales figure.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/JPY wave analysis for August 10, 2011




Yesterday after a brief consolidation near the 77 figure level the USD/JPY currency pair resumed declining, having finished the day near the 76.70 level. Thus, given the current wave situation we might suppose that the price started to form the 5th wave within the downside section initiated August 4. At the same time, given the inner dimension of this downside section its first target might be located slightly lower than the August 1 high 76.25. If it is tested this will probably cause the yen to rebound significantly to the 78.00 level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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EUR/JPY Figure Pattern, August 10, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/JPY

The Japanese yen is considered to be a safe haven for investors in a time of crisis and uncertainty. The euro-Japanese yen pair on the short graph (4 hours) appeared a triangle pattern that can be used as a trigger for an entry into a long or short position in the event of an upwards breakthrough. A closure daily above the level of 111.60 will confirm the pairs upwards breakthrough. On the other hand, a downward movement could lead to its nearest support around 106.16, this level will be a good entry point to buy in view of the price objective of short to medium term is evaluated around the previous peak levels of 118 , 00 yen per euro.





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook, August 10, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)





AUD/USD



The Australian dollar – United States dollar is highly influenced by the fluctuations in the financial markets and so, yesterday's steep price increases did indeed cause the Australian dollar – United States dollar pair to shoot up by over 400 points in a single day of trading. the pair which created a pattern of Japanese investment,"BULLISH KEY REVERSAL" The pattern reflects the strength of buyers around the weekly pivot line serves as a strong support level.

It is estimated that Aussie will resume its upward movement towards the 1,0870 resistance level in regard to prognosis in the short to medium term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for August 10, 2011



4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The pound is continuing sideways movement, the price has been located between 1.6470 and 1.6260 for a long time, now the Ichimoku might form false signals. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are now forming a buy signal, but as it was already mentioned, false signals are likely to be formed as the Ichimoku is a trend indicator. Therefore it is recommended to stay outside the market until the trend movement starts. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which indicates bullish sentiment of market participants. The Bollinger Bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is descending, which demonstrates current downside movement withing the sideways price channel.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to stay off the market until the trend movement starts. The beginning of trend movement will be shown by the Bollinger Bands that will start to diverge.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 11, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend from 128.87 (colored red in the chart). Within this wave there are four subwaves with subwave 4 from 123.27 still developing (colored orange red in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.23, 128.87-123.27.
Resistances:
- 125.41 = .382 retracement
- 126.07-15 = .50 and .382 retracements
- 126.73 = .618 ret
- 127.04 = .50 ret
- 127.93 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the targets of the downmove will be Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-127.38-128.87, 128.87-125-36-127.01.
Supports:
- 121.33 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 119.89 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (40-60 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 11, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within subwave 4 (from 1.09928) of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. These four waves are part of wave A of larger degree from 1.1079 (colored royal blue in the chart). Within wave 4 there are two subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 1.0414.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1063-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111.
Resistances:
- 1.0414 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0496 = .50 retracement
- 1.0597 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0629 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements 0.9928-1.0414.
Supports:
- 1.0114 = .618 ret
- 0.9928 = 100% ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (50-60 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (110-140 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com