Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 28, 2011

GBP/JPY is moving within wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. And within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta) that are completed. Now there's a corrective wave going against 132.30-128.19. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.51-128.19 and 132.30-128.19.
Resistances:
- 129.62 = .618 retracement
- 129.76 = .382 ret
- 130.25 = .50 ret
- 130.51 = 100% ret
- 130.73 = .618 ret
If the price keeps moving down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.90-130.51, and 130.51-128.19-129.53.
Supports:
- 128.10 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 127.21 = objective point (OP)
- 127.11 = OP
- 126.93 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 28, 2011

AUD/USD is now developing wave C of long term downtrend from 1.0649 - colored light green in the chart. Within this wave there are A, B and C waves that are completed - colored red in the chart. Now a corrective wave coming against subwave C, the targets of this upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0600-1.0390.
Resistances:
- 1.0470 = .382 retracement (already achieved)
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0520 = .618 ret
If the price keeps moving down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9707-1.1011, and expansions off 1.0774-1.0477-1.0649, and 1.0649-1.0454-1.0600.
Supports:
- 1.0359 = .50 retracement
- 1.0352 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0284 = expanded objectve point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (35-45 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Gold review for June 28, 2011

Futures on gold declined lower USD 1500 on Monday amid fewer purchases with an aim to hedge against inflation. By the end of COMEX trades August futures on gold dropped by USD 4.50 (0.3%) and hit the mark of USD 1496.40 per ounce. It is the lowest closing rate since May 19.
Futures on gold and other metals decreased in the beginning of the week following France’s president Nicolas Sarkozy having approved the plan of French banks to prolong the terms of settling Greece’s obligations. It caused the euro to increase versus the US dollar.
Yet analysts of large banks note that futures on gold are unlikely to dip considerably, as there are still uncertainties over Greece’s default. Voting on measures of tough saving is to be held on Wednesday. These measures are necessary for providing further financial assistance to Athens by the EU and IMF.
Unclear situation with Greece helped large funds to boost long position on gold. In accordance with CFTC data, for June 14-21 net long positions on gold futures amounted to 206 300 which is the highest number for the last 9 weeks.
Meanwhile, July futures on silver dropped by USD 1.05 (3%) and equaled thus USD 33.59 per ounce.
Gold in its turn is still in a downtrend which followed the last week announcements of the IEA to supply 60 mln. barrels of oil to the market with an aim to cover the insufficient supplies from Lybia. It led to decrease in oil futures rates which alleviated inflation expectations and pushed the prices for gold down. Buying gold is often a means to hedge against inflation.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Bullish Outlook June 29 2011 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/JPY

The United Kingdom pound – Japanese yen pair that is traded in positive correlation with

the financial markets is hinting at the creation of a bottom line on its daily graph. The

assessment is that so long as the pair is traded above the critical level of 128.80

(Fractal), it is worth a buy position with views towards price rises to the high levels of

135,00 and 140.00.

In the event of a daily closure above the weekly support level of 129.02, this will

constitute an indication for a change in direction and the start of a move in the opposite

direction upwards and towards the resistance level of 133,20 (Fractal).








Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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USD/CHF Bullish Above 0.8390 June 29, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





USD/CHF

The United States dollar – Swiss Franc pair technically could present stagnation and change

the trend in the short term.

Recommend to buy only if the price is above the bearish trend line or the weekly pivot

point around the 0.8390 level. It is possible to enter a buy deal already at the present

price levels, although another wave downwards the important support level at 0.8280 is also

likely. Such a move will serve us to increase the buy position with a brief stop loss order

set around the 0.8200 level. A partial realization can take place towards the weekly

resistance level, 0.8650.





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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USD/JPY wave analysis for June 29, 2011






During yesterday’s trading the USD/JPY currency pair continues upside movement and tested

the 81.25 level by the end of the day. At the same time the price formed a little more

complicated 4th wave in the estimated c, and at the moment is moving in the direction of

the target level at 81.35. Thus, if the situation follows the corrective scenario, after

testing this target a decline to 80.50 might follow.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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Fundamental Analysis, June 29, 2011




Despite public protests and violence that erupted yesterday in the streets of Athens,

investors seem confident that the vote of the Greek parliament needed to push through

further austerity measures will pass. That sentiment is helping to boost the euro against

the U.S. dollar.

During today the vote on the Greek Parliament's austerity plan is expected, as hundreds of

investors define their strategies based on the outcome of treatment that provides the

Hellenic Parliament.

All publications of the day will remain in the background, as the market will be very

attentive to Greece.

For now a volatile day is expected while awaiting several U.S. publications, plus the day's

key from the hand of Greece.

In the United States housing data and oil inventories will be published, after Obama said

he would release some oil reserves to combat the constant rise of this commodity.

Therefore, be attentive to the level of risk aversion and treatment of Hellenic austerity

plan.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 29, 2011

GBP/JPY is moving within wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. And within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored royal blue), with subwave B still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 132.30-128.19 and expansions off 128.19-129.53-128.62, 128.62-129.3-129.39.
Resistances:
- 129.96 = objective point (OP)
- 130.20-25 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 retracement
- 130.70-73-79 = confluence area of OP, .618 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 131.51 = XOP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 128.19-129.93.
Supports:
- 129.27 = .382 ret
- 129.06 = .50 ret
- 128.85 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 29, 2011

AUD/USD is now developing wave C of long term downtrend from 1.0649 - colored light green in the chart. Within this wave there are A, B and C waves that are completed - colored red in the chart. They formed wave A of larger degree - colored magenta in the chart. Now a corrective wave B is developing against wave A, the targets of this upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0649-1.0390, 1.0774-1.0390, and expansions off 1.0390-1.0479-1.0435.
Resistances:
- 1.0550 = .618 retracement
- 1.0579-89 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .50 ret
- 1.0627 = .618
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0390 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for June 30, 2011

AUD/USD has finished the whole downmove from 1.1011 to 1.0390 and now is developing either a correction to this wave or brand new wave A of long tern uptrend. Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1011-1.0390, and expansions off 1.0435-1.0548-1.0519.

Resistances:

- 1.0774 = .618 retracement
- 1.0815 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0390 - this wave is not developed yet therefore no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (40-50 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Wheat review for June 30, 2011

Wheat futures grew on Wednesday amid closing short positions before an important report on grains reserves of the US Agriculture Department is released. Increasing futures also supported the market.
By the end of CBOT trades September futures on wheat gained 1 ½ cent and constituted USD 6.74 ¼ per bushel.
As corn futures showed growth prices for wheat declined on Wednesday. Moreover, rising wheat futures in Europe also spurred the market up which was oversold, traders say.
Market participants are anxiously waiting for the US Agriculture Department report which will reveal the grain reserves state and seeding area. The latter will be particularly important for traders as heavy rains earlier this spring caused delays in seeding in Northern parts of Grain Plains. However, negative influence of natural disasters was already reflected in the governmental report published earlier this week. The US Agriculture Department announced on Tuesday that 60% wheat harvest is estimated as being in decent condition which is 3% less as compared to the previous assessment. Meanwhile, the national government lowered the estimation of harvest in Minnesotta and North Dakota by 4% and South Dakota - by 6%.
Analysts forecast that the wheat harvest constituted 12.32 mln. acres which is much lower than March forecast of 14.43 mln. acres. This fall may be caused by heavy raining and cold weather earlier this year.
According to the data published on Wednesday, exported wheat sales equaled 120 000 tons in an unknown direction with 2011-2012 supplies.
South Korea bought 220 000 tons of wheat. These announcements supported the market.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, June 30, 2011




Asian stocks traded in positive territory this Thursday, after growth in European and U.S.

markets due to growing investor optimism with the adoption of austerityg program in the

parliament of Greece. But there are many fronts and Greece has a long way to receive 12bn€

and much more for CE/FMI to approve the 2ª package of assistance (120bn€ , which is

actually much less).

At least in the short term the euro will be calm and managed to advance. Before that vote,

the EUR / USD was trading at $ 1.43, but after the Greek parliament approved the pair

reached $ 1.45.
In any long-term issue of European public debt continue to affect the euro, while

industrial and manufacturing data in the region continue to show deterioration.

The price of oil also showed strong growth in two days after the output of oil reserves in

the U.S., which showed a sharp drop in crude oil reserves of 4.38 million barrels, instead

of the expected decline 1.5 million.
Contracts for crude oil rose yesterday in August to its maximum of two weeks - 95.84

dollars per barrel. Investors are now carefully monitoring the output of the U.S. labor

market

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com




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GBP/USD wave analysis for June 30, 2011





During yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD currency pair continued growth in favour of the

British currency limited by the estimated upside correction. At the same time, its inner

wave structure is forming the first waves of a more continuous future uptrend. In the

meantime, there is a possibility that the current upside movement will stop near the 61

figure level, which in its turn can complicate the whole wave situation of the 3rd wave.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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EUR/JPY Technical analysis








EUR/JPY

The pair will find support at 115.30 levels to resume their upward sequence, this level

would be a good entry point.

The major resistance of 117.20 is the real test of the euro-yen Japanese and only clean

break of this level represent for me a sign to take buy position on the pair. Another

break, the higher resistance of 118.00, added confidence in the positive sequence is

estimated to reach the end of the process to the high peaks of 132.80 Japanese yen per

euro.







Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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NZD/USD Technical Correction, June 30, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






NZD/USD

The analysis of the 4 hours graph of the New Zealand dollar - United States dollar pair

show the potential change of trend in the short term or a technical correction, the price

of the pair is fluctuating near the second weekly resistance around 0.8274. If in the

course of the day the price of the pair trades below this level, it would be a clear signal

to sell with a goal in the fractal formed around the 0.8050 level.

The momentum indicator and the RSI are showing a possible Correction of prices.







Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 1, 2011

AUD/USD has finished the whole downmove from 1.1011 to 1.0390 and now is developing either a correction to this wave or brand new wave A of long tern uptrend. Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1011-1.0390, and expansions off 1.0390-1.0750-1.0673.

Resistances:

- 1.0774 = .618 retracement
- 1.0895 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price reverses down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0390-1.0750.

Supports:

- 1.0612 = .382 ret
- 1.0570 = .50 ret
- 1.0528 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com