Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Corn review for August 16, 2011

Futures on corn closed with a gain on Monday amid concerns over fewer supplies later this year. December contract reached its new record highs.
Traders carry on purchasing futures after the US Agriculture Department unexpectedly downgraded forecasts on grain crop yield last week. Thus, the national government forecasts that corn production will drop by 1.4% to 12.914 bln. bushels owing to the continuous drought that damaged the crops considerably.
The market reflects this news and opinions that corn harvest will shrink further by August 2012 in quotations. Still traders attempt to find levels which would help to push demand down.
Uncertainties over the US crops condition have been supporting the market, as at the moment it is rather sensitive to news about crop yield and weather. Traders have also been concerned about further downgrading of the official assessments of the grain crop condition.
Nevertheless, on Monday futures on corn failed to remain at their record highs amid favourable weather conditions in August and concerns over the global economic situation.
By the end of CBOT trades December futures on corn grew by 5 ½ cent (0.8%) and equaled USD 7.20 per bushel.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, August 16, 2011



The U.S. economy not going through its best moment: macroeconomic indicators have generated much concern on investors, resulting in lower than previous estimates in many reports published in recent months. Such is the case of the labor market, with an unemployment rate above 9%, the housing market, where prices are declining, and an economy that is growing very slowly, with a GDP growth for the second quarter of such only 1.3% and a downward revision of first quarter growth to 0.4%. Finally, the manufacturing sector also showed a slowdown from the previous year.

Given this grim picture, and amid instability in financial markets, the Fed met Tuesday to define new monetary policies and interest rates. The meeting decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at the current minimum levels until mid-2013. Investors awaited the implementation of a new incentive compensation plan, for the moment not apply but were dropped for the medium term.

We believe that once again will conduct an expansionary monetary policy by buying back assets (QE3), which could be implemented on the end of this year or early next year in order to inject liquidity into the markets, seeking to stimulate economic activity as well financial markets.

In Europe, the pump is getting bigger, do not pass or two weeks when we hear that one of the countries in the sector have to their debt problems, recently, Italy "advance" a budget-cutting plan to avoid falling into the situation where live Greece, this was the initiative, but we know that results will be as a result of this plan, Spain is in a similar situation and problems of Greece, although the injections are still latent.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD wave analysis for August 16, 2011




In general as expected, but with a little more dynamics, during yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD pair advanced by over two figures having tested the 1.4470 level. At the same time, give the current dynamics we might suppose that the price is forming the 3rd wave in the estimated 3rd (in the 3rd) of the new uptrend section. If so, given the inner wave dimension of this 3rd wave (in the 3rd, in the 3rd) its targets might be located slightly above the 1.4500 level. 

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GOLD Sell Short, August 16, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





GOLD

The price of gold is finally beginning to signal a reversal of its trend and the start of a corrective movement that could be very deep. This is against the background of the exceptional wave of increases that brought the price of gold to the astronomical height that it is traded for at the moment.


According to our technical perspective, the price of gold has to correct at least until the 1615,00, so we recommend selling only if price closes below the first weekly resistance, around 1812,70.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook, August 16, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





AUD/USD

After such a deep and incisive correction, the Australian dollar – United States pair now has great potential to change its direction and renew its main rising trend. In the long term, the big difference in interest rates between Australia and the United States – which is constantly getting bigger – can be expected to provide continuous support for the strengthening of the Australian dollar at the expense of the United States dollar.

In the 1.0210 level, there has formed a fractal, which is confirmed by the weekly pivot line, this would be a good entry point to take a bullish position on the long term. Our medium-term goal we can locate just the fractal formed around 1.1000



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 17, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within wave B (from 1.0928) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111, 1.0111-1.0511-1.0406.
Resistances:
- 1.0597 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0639-53 = confluence area of .618 ret and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0806 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0511.
Supports:
- 1.0288 = .382 ret
- 1.0219 = .50 ret
- 1.0151 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (20-25 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (50-60 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 17, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B of medium term downtrend from 123.27 (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave 5 still developing from 125.27.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, 128.87-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-124.96-123.95, 123.95-125.99-125.27.
Resistances:
- 126.53 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 126.68-73 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 retracement
- 127.04 = .50 ret
- 127.31 = objective point (OP)
- 127.93 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the targets of the downmove will be Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-126.42.
Supports:
- 125.22 = .382 ret
- 124.85 = .50 ret
- 124.47 = .618 ret
[img]http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110817/0817-02-gj-en.gif[img]
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major trend is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (45-65 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Oil review for August 17, 2011

Futures on crude oil closed with a loss on Tuesday amid concerns over the pace of global economic growth and strengthening US dollar.
By the end of NYMEX trades, September futures on WTI oil declined by 1.4% (USD 1.23) and constituted USD 86.65 dollars per barrel. October futures on Brent and ICE oil lost 71 cent only to equal USD 109.13 per barrel.
As it was announced on Tuesday, the GDP of Germany, the largest eurozone economy, in the second quarter grew just by 0.1% as compared to the previous quarter, while growth by 0.4% was in fact expected. Eurozone GDP growth slowed down for the second quarter to 0.2%. This is a two-year low, which raised concerns about the ability of the region to solve is debt problems.
Market participants will focus their attention on Paris meeting of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s president Nicolas Sarkozy. Oil futures fell after these two leaders decided not to support eurozone obligations which, as many traders believe, are of crucial importance for settling debt troubles of the region.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s president Nicolas Sarkozy agreed on the details of the plan on creation of a eurozone economic council, yet they turned down the idea of introduction of eurozone obligations as potentially harmful for the healthiest European economies. They called for cutting expenditures and other long-term measures of reducing the debt. Still the leaders did not put forward any immediate solutions.
Germany and France, the two large eurozone economies, are expected to manage efforts on curbing any damage related to the debt. Nevertheless, lack of any precise suggestions following the Tuesday meeting disappointed traders.
The data released in Tuesday in the USA was contradicting. New housing construction in July shrank by 1.5% after growth during two preceding months. The fall exceeded the expectations. Prices for imported goods in July gained 0.3%, while analysts had not predicted any changes.
Additionally, industrial production in July increased by 0.9% versus forecasted 0.6%. As traders say, this growth will bring about higher demand for distillates, but prices did not grow amid such news.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, August 17, 2011



BOE policy makers, Dale and Weale, were terminated its campaign of higher interest rates this month, when the EU crisis and signs of a global economic slowdown have increased the risks of inflation negatively. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the reference rate at a record minimum of 0.5%, according to the minutes of the meeting on 3-4 August. Posen maintained his vote to expand the program of purchases of bonds in 50 billion pounds. The committee also said that new asset purchases, which would increase the current program 200 billion pounds, "could be ensured if the downside risks materialize."


The central bank also noted that "overall, the news over the months have strengthened the weak tone of the indicators of growth in global activity in recent months."

The other hand, the Gold continues to trade near its highs, and this morning it does around 1780.00 per ounce, highlighting the fact that investors continue to seek safe havens. While there is some degree of speculation about the progress of the precious metal, there is no doubt the fear helped push gold to rise significantly. Last Thursday, gold reached its record high in trading around 1812.00 per ounce, while the stock market plummeted. Other commodities were also able to gain ground during the day yesterday, including oil. Operators who intend to participate in the short term must remain vigilant against any sudden event. The outlook for the market remains volatile and could not rule out the possible occurrence of rapid movements.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/JPY Bullish Above 125,60 August 17, 2011 (Daily Strategy)




GBP/JPY

The United Kingdom pound – Japanese yen pair showed excessive weakness during the wave of price drops that hit the financial markets. Interestingly, the price of two single "punctured" the crucial support level of 124.00 not really make him settle down. It seems that this is a very strong with a real chance to support the reversal and the move to new highs.


It is assumed that a short brief correction of the last wave bass player should push the pair toward the first target price is around 128.00 resistance.Later, the pair has a high potential for continuation resistance to the level of higher 131.50.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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NZD/USD Bullish Outlook, August 17, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





NZD/USD

After his fall last week to the level of 79.80, the New Zealand dollar - United States dollar pair has rebounded more or less around 300 points. This can be seen as a very strong sign for a change in direction and the start of a new wave of price increases in accord with the direction of the pair's main trend.

We note that the price is above the line of the triangle. We can point to a short-term goal to the level of 87,09, the stop loss, we can place under the edge of the triangle.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD wave analysis for August 17, 2011





Yesterday after a certain decline in early trading the GBP/USD currency pair resumed upside movement and tested the 1.6470 level by the end of the day. At the same time more complex wave situation of the current upside section can be considered as a 5-wave structure of the estimated 1st wave (or a) with extension in its 3rd wave. If so, the pound might correct from the high reached yesterday to the level of the 63 figure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 18, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within wave B (from 1.0928) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0414-1.0111, 1.0111-1.0511-1.0406.
Resistances:
- 1.0639-53 = confluence area of .618 ret and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0806 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0600.
Supports:
- 1.0343 = .382 ret
- 1.0264 = .50 ret
- 1.0185 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 18, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B of medium term downtrend from 123.27 (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 125.24.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-126.42-125.24.
Resistances:
- 127.04 = .50 ret
- 127.19 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 127.93 = .618 ret
- 128.39 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the targets of the downmove will be Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-126.95.
Supports:
- 125.54 = .382 ret
- 125.11 = .50 ret
- 124.68 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major trend is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/CAD candlestick analysis for August 18, 2011

The AUD/CAD currency pair is rolling back slightly after it failed to break the resistance near 1.0378.
Earlier in a daily graph the AUD/CAD has formed an Evening Star candlestick combination indicating bearish signal, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level 1.0550, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level means that this point of view is correct. If the pair fixates below the support level 1.0123 will probably lead to downside movement to 0.9937 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located. At the same time the break of 1.1023 denoted the formation of Double bottom.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.0378 level as its break will target the pair to 1.0550.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, August 18, 2011


The gold price correction is still recovering after he suffered late last week, going back to $ 1,810 per ounce, while silver prices again flirt with the $ 40 per ounce.

The euro crisis continues to unfold unsurprisingly, after the Franco-German proposal will result in a stronger fiscal union between the countries of the eurozone. At the same time, the Swiss monetary authorities, concerned at the strength of the Swiss franc, are considering measures to devalue its currency.

Unfortunately, this attitude of "unit to print" and competitive devaluations have a negative side effect: the currency ceases to transmit reliable and easily understandable information about the value of goods and services. While the free fall speeds, and we have no clear reference point to which we stick to measure the speed, and suffer from money illusion. On the contrary, central banks obviously can not print gold and silver - the main reason that demand for these metals are shooting.

The agenda of today set in the U.S., jobless claims, leading indicators, sales of home built and above all, the very important report on inflation. Today we could also have a statement of Dudley, the Fed

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/CHF Technical Correction, August 18, 2011 (Daily Strategy)




EUR/CHF

The Swiss central bank has been working diligently to suppress the rise in rise of the Swiss franc, which is making business more difficult and more expensive for Swiss companies.

In the long term the policy of the SNB is to take all measures deemed necessary and within its mandate to maintain the Swiss franc below.

Therefore, we believe that the upward sequence the Euro - Swiss Franc pair even still has a long way to go before the couple should seek confirmation support around 1.0742 or even lower and then continue its upward sequence, this level would be a good exit point our short position,



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/CHF Technical Correction, August 18, 2011 (Daily Strategy)




USD/CHF



The Swiss bank faces the sudden strengthening of the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar after speaking last week to sell a large amount of Swiss francs while. parallel, the interest rate remains at its lowest level indefinitely. And indeed, attempts were successful Bank intervention at the moment, after the pair U.S. dollar-Swiss franc rallied over 800 points to its current price levels.

In view of the uncertainty in the market, and if we note the technical analysis, the pair need to correct before the high levels reached to then resume their upward sequence, therefore, suggest to sell below the weekly resistance around 0.8019, with a target to the nearest support around 0,7543.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/JPY wave analysis for August 18, 2011





During yesterday’s trading the USD/JPY currency pair started to decline to August 11 low. At the same time, by the end of the trading the price did not manage to test the 76.33 level. As a result of such downside pressure current situation can be interpreted either as accumulation of potential before a dynamic decline within the future 3rd wave or as careful selling of the yen before a significant increase in favour of the dollar.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com