Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 24, 2011

The GBP/JPY is now developing impulse subwave C (colored red in the chart) within corrective wave 4 of larger degree (colored light green). The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 129.75-135.56, 131.62-135.56, and expansions off 135.56-133.31-134.61, 134.62-133.35-133.85.
Supports:
- 133.07 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.66 = .50 ret
- 132.58 = objective point (OP)
- 132.37 = OP
- 131.97 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 131.80 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- etc.
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 134.62 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that wave C of the medium term trend down is developing, it's preferable to use overbought readings (45-55 pips away from the current price) of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level (20-25 pips away from the current price) to consider short positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD candlestick analysis for February 24, 2011

Earlier on a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD currency pair has formed Morning Star candlestick combination indicating upside movement.
This candlestick combination formed near the support level 0.9961 where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after downside movement took place. This candlestick combination provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
Break of the resistance level 1.0074-0.9961 will prove this viewpoint. In this case upside movement with a target at 1.0156 should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.9961 as break of this level will target the pair to 0.9825.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 24, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency is declining further after it could not break the resistance level near 84.00. Besides, the pair has broken the support level near 83.00-82.25, which will probably cause a decline to 81.80.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50. 
As mentioned before, if the support level 81.80 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.93.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD candlestick analysis for February 24, 2011

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading on the upside. As mentioned before, stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.3853 as its breakthrough will lead to an advance to 1.4000.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, indicating downside movement.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks. However, near the resistance level 1.3852 (3-month high) the bears started to increase their influence and a rebound took place.
Downside movement is supported by the MACD divergence and Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing candlestick combinations on the day graph.
Break of the support level 1.3538 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect a downside movement to the support level 1.3227, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 24, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is rolling back after an unsuccessful attempt to test the resistance level near 1.6260-1.6280. Nevertheless, stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.6280 as breakthrough of this level will target the pair to 1.6457.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6280, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5800-1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located, should be expected.
Bearish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator supports downside movement as well.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, February 24, 2011


Trade in the Asian stock markets have been conducted this morning at a mixed trend with a tendency for index declines, this after the Asian stock markets have already lost about 2.5% in the past few days, due to concerns of a sharp rise in oil prices and continued escalation in the unrest in the Arab world. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange drops 0.9%, the Seoul stock exchange drops by 0.6%, the Sydney stock exchange drops by 0.7%, and only the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges record slight climbs of 0.2%.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, the housing market is beginning to show signs of recovery after the rate of housing sales recorded an ascent yesterday, reaching an annualized rate of 5.36 million sales per year in January, above analysts' prediction of an annualized rate of 5.22 million sales and as compared rate of 5.2 million in the parralel period of 2010, as reported by America's NAR.

The price of crude oil crossed yesterday the bar of 100 dollars per barrel for the first time since 2008, due to the escalation of the unrest in Libya and the insistence of the country's leader, Muammar Quaddhafi, to continue fighting protestors demanding his removal. Senior economists estimate that, should the production of oil in Libya and Algeria suffer, the price of oil is likely to leap to 200 United States dollars per barrel or higher.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



================================================== ===================================

================================================== ===================================



EUR/USD , Bearish Outlook, February 24, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







EUR/USD



The Euro – United States dollar pair, is around 1st weekly resistance, from there downward turn north, due to fears in financial markets and with the escalation in the Arab world increasing in the background, it is likely the correct time for entry into a sell deal on the pair.

The RSI indicator adds weight to the negative prediction on the pair, which is likely to move back down to the lower range of the shuffle. with an exit goal around the trend line of 1.3650 United States dollars for one Euro



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com







================================================== ===================================

================================================== ===================================


The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for February 24, 2011



4-hour timeframe






Overview:
The euro is still observing a buy signal with target level 1.3764, the target level is reached and now a beginning of a correction is possible. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3795 – the first resistance level that was reached by the price, but not passed. If this level is passed the second target will be the second resistance level at 1.3898. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.3655), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuation of the upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement, if the indicator reverses down it will denote the beginning of a correction.



Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 1.3795 and further to 1.3898. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3655. If the MACD reverses down it is recommended to cut long positions manually.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



================================================== ===================================

================================================== ===================================







EUR/USD wave analysis for February 24, 2011







Yesterday the EUR/USD currency pair continued recent advance, slowly approaching early month’s high. As a result, current wave situation allows supposing that Tuesday’s low 1.3525 is the end of the e wave of the complex wave structure initiated February 2. However, its shape looks rather simplified. At the same time, if the e wave is completed, we can expect the euro to advance in the direction of targets above the 39 figure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 25, 2011

The GBP/JPY is now developing corrective subwave B (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 135.56-131.49, 134.62-131.49.
Resistances:
- 132.69 = .382 retracement
- 133.04-06 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 133.42-53 = .618 and .50 retracements
- 134.01 = .618 ret
If the price continues the downtrend it's immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 135.56-133.31-134.62.
Support:
- 130.98 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that wave C of the medium term trend down is developing, it's preferable to use overbought readings (15-25 pips away from the current price) of the Detrended Oscillator to consider short positions. The overbought area roughly corresponds to Fib resistance at 132.69.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD candlestick analysis for February 25, 2011

The AUD/USD has successfully broken the resistance level 1.0074 to continue upside movement.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD currency pair has formed Morning Star candlestick combination indicating upside movement.
This candlestick combination formed near the support level 0.9961 where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after downside movement took place. This candlestick combination provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
Break of the resistance level 1.0074-0.9961 will prove this viewpoint. In this case upside movement with a target at 1.0156 should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.9961 as break of this level will target the pair to 0.9825.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 25, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is rolling back after an unsuccessful attempt to test the resistance level near 1.6260-1.6280. Nevertheless, stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.6280 as breakthrough of this level will target the pair to 1.6457.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6280, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5800-1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located, should be expected.
Bearish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator supports downside movement as well.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

The EUR/GBP currency pair is finishing this week on the upside. However, the pair is still trading in a range between 0.820-0.8680.
At the moment the viewpoint at the pair is still bearish since the EUR/GBP has formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing on the downtrend.
Downside movement is supported by the fact that this candlestick combination has formed near the upper limit of the downtrend where the bulls did not manage to solidify and the bears started to increase their influence. Further a rebound took place.
As mentioned before, successful breakthrough of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
It is worth highlighting that in case the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is broken short positions should be closed since it will denote that the downtrend is breached and the pair will be targeted to 0.98.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com