Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 11/05/2020:



Crypto Industry News:
Vitalik Buterin believes that Ethereum can play a role in the future global crisis as a glue that helps unite nations.

Ethereum co-founder was interviewed at Ethereal Summit 2020. Describing the current global crisis as more than financial, Buterin said that levels of political discord and distrust between countries highlighted the need for a network like Ethereum.

"I strongly believe that the role of Blockchain chains - in particular Ethereum - is to play the role of a neutral global player for systems, currencies and applications for interaction. I think that anything created and maintained by nation states cannot play this role" - he said

Describing the current situation as financial only "one-third", co-founder Ethereum also discussed the current situation compared to the global financial crisis in 2008 and whether the event could help fuel a new wave of cryptocurrency. Buterin said that cryptocurrencies like Ethereum could grow this time, solving "non-financial problems" in the world.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has dropped significantly towards the level of $177.50, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement for the price and is currently hovering around this level. The momentum remains weak and negative, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of $164.45. The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of $188.86 and $193.78. Please bear in mind, that there is only 13 hours left to the halving, which is highly anticipated event for all cryptoenthusiasts.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $241.59
WR2 - $228.78
WR1 - $204.66
Weekly Pivot - $191.03
WS1 - $168.45
WS2 - $154.83
WS3 - $130.49

Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets, nevertheless the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 12/05/2020:



Crypto Industry News:
The South Korean government plans to create a blockchain-based platform for storing and verifying the identity of digital independent vehicles in the city of Sejong, which is a testing ground for the introduction of new technologies.

Asian media has announced that South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT, along with the national internet technology supervisory body, Korea Internet & Security Agency, will guide the development of an identity management and verification platform. Although autonomous vehicles are still far from the mainstream, Sejong has already started preparing to fight the crimes associated with these advances.

The LG Group technology wing, LG CNS and the Korean independent vehicle manufacturer will work with the authorities of the city of Sejong to develop a blockchain-based encrypted identifier, called a decentralized identifier or DID. This can help prevent illegal identity copying or hacking into independent vehicles. The report explains that the identity verification system will implement multiple layers of data encryption shared between cars and road objects using vehicle-to-everything or V2X communication.

Although previously the government was uncertain about crypto, it did show consistent efforts to legitimize cryptocurrencies and develop favorable regulations. It is worth recalling that the Bank of Korea has launched a pilot program for assessing the logistics of the digital currency of the central bank or CBDC

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has dipped 15% just before the halving and now, after the halving is done, there is no sign of the shopping frenzy behavior. Still the key level of support is still seen at $7,943, but the nearest technical support is currently seen at the level of $8,464. Any violation of this level will deepen the correction towards the level of $7,934 which is a key short-term technical support for bulls. Weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook about 13 hours before halving.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,485
WR2 - $10,709
WR1 - $9,512
Weekly Pivot - $8,760
WS1 - $7,652
WS2 - $6,835
WS3 - $5,708

Trading Recommendations:
The recent rally in Bitcoin was made in anticipation of Bitcoin halving and it is a classic pump and dump scheme. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for May 13, 2020:



Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD was rejected for the second time at the level of 38% Fibonacci located at 1.0862 after a Shooting Star candlestick pattern was mad around the level of 1.0878. The bears are pushing the price towards the level of 1.0767 again. The bulls hasn't made a new local high yet, so the next target for them is still seen at the level of 38% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0862 and 1.0878. This level must be clearly violated in order to rally towards higher levels. The momentum remains neutral, but might turn negative any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1136
WR2 - 1.1058
WR1 - 1.0936
Weekly Pivot - 1.0853
WS1 - 1.0718
WS2 - 1.0627
WS3 - 1.0520

Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets. On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for May 14, 2020:



Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD was rejected at the level of 50% Fibonacci located at 1.0892 after a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the end of the wave up. The bears are pushing the price towards the level of 1.0767 again. The bulls hasn't made a new local high yet, so the next target for them is still seen at the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0921. This level must be clearly violated in order to rally towards the swing high at 1.1017. The momentum remains neutral, but might turn negative any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1136
WR2 - 1.1058
WR1 - 1.0936
Weekly Pivot - 1.0853
WS1 - 1.0718
WS2 - 1.0627
WS3 - 1.0520

Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences has decreased among the global investors on the financial markets. On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 20, 2020:



Crypto Industry News:
Robert Kiyosaki, businessman and author of the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, again visited Twitter to announce his bullish position to Bitcoin. In a published tweet, Kiyosaki states that fear of a dying economy led him to buy more three assets, which he considers valuable outside of the traditional financial system: gold, silver and Bitcoin. The author's tweet describes how valuable he thinks every resource will be in the coming years.

"I bought more silver and Bitcoin gold. GOLD [currently] at $ 1,700. I forecast $ 3,000 in 1 year. Silver [currently] at $ 17. I predict $ 40 for 5 years. Bitcoin [currently] at $ 9,800. I anticipate $ 75,000 in three years. "

In numerical terms, this forecast reflects the expected annual increase of around 76%, 19% and 97% for gold, silver and Bitcoin, respectively. This indicates, at least according to Kiyosaki's calculations, that Bitcoin has the most favorable profit potential out of three.

This is not the first time Robert Kiyosaki has used his platform to explain the benefits of Bitcoin and Blockchain. In recent months, the businessman has repeatedly talked about his faith in the future of these technologies.

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen hovering around the level of $10,000, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls. The recent local high was made at the level of $9,884, so any violation of this level will lead to the local up trend extension towards the level of $10,227 - $10,430. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,381. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,194
WR2 - $10,994
WR1 - $10,553
Weekly Pivot - $9,337
WS1 - $8,765
WS2 - $7,555
WS3 - 7,013

Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for AUD/USD on May 21, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar grew by 60 points on Wednesday, and it almost returned to yesterday's opening today in the Asian session. This is a sign that the price will not reach the target level of 0.6677, the aussie aimed to overcome the price channel line in the region of 0.6492, which will be a good reason for continuing the fall to 0.6338. A slightly veiled double divergence is formed on the Marlin oscillator.



The price returned to the signal level of 0.6562 on the four-hour chart - yesterday's exit above it turned out to be false. The MACD indicator line is located at the 0.6492 level taken from the daily time, which strengthens this level. Accordingly, overcoming it will become a significant condition for opening short positions with a target above 0.6338.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 22, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro grew during the first half of Thursday due to optimistic rates of European business activity for the current month: Manufacturing PMI of the euro area grew from 33.4 to 39.5, Services PMI showed even greater dynamics - an increase from 12.0 to 28.7. The euro has decisively reversed since the US session opened. US PMIs came out better than expected, but not as much as we expected: Manufacturing PMI grew from 36.1 to 39.8 against 39.3, Services PMI grew from 26.7 to 36.9 with 32.6 expected. Nevertheless, the trading volumes were comparable to those observed on May 18, which indicates a massive closure of purchases and even the opening of sales. A more interesting story awaits us next week, when sales of new housing, orders for durable goods, incomes and expenses of consumers will be published in the US.



The price was re-marked at the upper border of the price range and with the turn of the oscillator, Marlin headed down on the daily chart. The closest support for the price is the price channel line at 1.0918, below it is the MACD indicator line at 1.0888, overcoming it will confirm the euro's intention to go much deeper down to 1.0767 and 1.0578.



The signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrated into the downward trend zone after forming a double divergence on the four-hour chart. The closest target is the 1.0888 level, at which the MACD lines coincide on both scopes. Consolidation under the level opens the way to the lower border of the range 1.0767.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 26, 2020:



Crypto Industry News:
New strict rules, in which many ways of using digital resources are punishable by a fine or imprisonment, may soon become law in Russia.

New bills specifying how Russia should regulate cryptocurrencies were sent to the parliament of the country, the State Duma, earlier this week. Although the official site for the planned regulations has not yet been updated, both documents were published in the OrderCom telegram channel and were confirmed as authentic by the sources of the Russian news channel RBK.

Legislative proposals were reportedly written by employees of the Digital Economy think tank and the Skolkovo business accelerator. They are looking for a new version of the Digital Resources Act that has been stuck in the Duma for over two years, as well as cryptocurrency-oriented additions to the national criminal code.

The first bill would regulate digital currencies in Russia, or more precisely, prohibit the issuance and operation of digital currencies. It would even be forbidden to disseminate information on such activities.

Individuals and companies will not be able to accept digital currencies as payments, unless they are inherited, transferred to the debtors of a bankrupt company or confiscated as a result of a court decision. People with cryptocurrency should declare it at the tax office, as well as provide information on how to buy.

A second draft would introduce a new article in the Criminal Code imposing sanctions for illegal operations using digital resources. If the regulations are adopted, the issue of digital assets in Russia without permission to enter in the register, which is yet to be created in the central bank of this country, will result in a fine of up to two million rubles (almost $ 28,000). The same level of penalty is suggested for organizing operations with digital resources and cryptocurrencies without permission, while people would face fines of up to $ 2,800.

Buying a cryptocurrency for cash or a bank transfer from a Russian bank would be subject to a fine of up to one million Russian rubles ($ 14,000) or up to seven years in prison, depending on the scale of the contract. A similar penalty would apply to those who accept crypto for goods and services.

If such a business brings "particularly large" profits or particularly large damage to citizens and the state, the proposal would cause the person (s) involved to be imprisoned for up to seven years, or even forced labor.

Mention of the central bank register suggests that legislators are free to some officially sanctioned entities to issue and use digital assets, while most general operations would be banned.

According to the RBK report, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Duma of the Financial Markets Commission, confirmed the authenticity of the documents, but stated that they had not been finalized.

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $8,576 after breaking through the key trend line support located around the level of $8,800. The bounce is so far very shallow and the next the nearest resistance is located at the level of $8,919 and $9,013. On the other hand, the next technical support is seen at the level of $8,464 and $8,357.The momentum remains weak and negative, so the odds for another wave down are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,568
WR2 - $10,245
WR1 - $9,478
Weekly Pivot - $9,098
WS1 - $8,333
WS2 - $7,968
WS3 - 7,231

Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for May 27, 2020



EUR/GBP is finally back to test the neckline support at 0.8866. This former resistance which now acts as support should be able to protect the downside for renewed upside pressure through minor resistance at 0.8930 indicating the next impulsive rally towards 0.9065 on the way higher to and above the peak at 0.9495.

In the short-term, we should see a final dip to test the key-support at 0.8866 before EUR/GBP will be ready to turn higher again.
R3: 0.9000
R2: 0.8955
R1: 0.8930
Pivot: 0.8910
S1: 0.8880
S2: 0.8866
S3: 0.8844

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 0.8760 and our stop is placed at 0.8815.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 28, 2020

GBP/USD
The British pound lost 70 points on Wednesday due to investors' concerns regarding the Bank of England's lower rates towards the negative area. The current rate of the BoE is 0.10%. In addition, UK Brexit negotiator David Frost announced the country's refusal to extend the transition period ending at the end of this year and actually reported the failure of the current stage of negotiations.



The pound's growth on the daily chart was suspended on the balance indicator line. Currently, the price is at the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. But the price is higher than the MACD indicator line, consolidated above it, and if the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves to the zone of positive values, the upward trend can be restored with the immediate target of 1.2540 at the Fibonacci level of 123.6%.

The price may return to the downward trend after the price goes below the MACD line (1.2165 - match with the April 7 low). Decreasing goals are also determined by Fibonacci levels: 1.1935, 1.1750.



The price develops between two signal levels on the H4 chart: its exit above 1.2362 - yesterday's high, opens up the prospect of growth to 1.2540, consolidation below 1.2165 opens the first bearish target of 1.1935.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.