Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 13, 2011

AUD/USD is developing impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0525, that is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now this wave has subwaves A and B, with subwave B still developing from 1.0844 (colored magenta in the chart). Within the latter there are A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 1.0639.

The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844.

Supports:

- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

If the price keeps moving up, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0639.

Resistances:

- 1.0836 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0958 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (45-60 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 14, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.34. Subwave C was confirmed when the price broke above 122.79 (top of subwave A). However it will be over if the price breaks below 121.34.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-122.79-121.34, 121.34-123.11-121.62.

Resistances:

- 122.71 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.35-39-42 = confluence area of COP, objective point (OP), and .618 retracement
- 123.75 = OP
- 124.29 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.53-123.11, and expansions off 123.11-121.98-122.86.

Supports:

- 121.32 = .50 ret
- 121.03 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 120.90 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-35 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (60-75 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 14, 2011

AUD/USD is moving wihtin impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, and B, with subwave B still developing from 1.0777 (colored magenta in the chart). Within the latter there are A, B, and C subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0777.

The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0639-1.0777.

Supports:

- 1.0650 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0577-72 = confluence area of .382 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0445 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

If the price keeps moving up, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0639.

Resistances:

- 1.0836 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0958 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-35 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 15, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.00-122.45.

Resistances:

- 123.42 = .618 retracement
- 123.83 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 124.29 = OP
- 124.68 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 121.62 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 15, 2011

AUD/USD is still developing impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, B, and C, with potential subwave C still developing from 1.0628 (colored magenta in the chart).

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0844-1.0628, and expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0629.

Resistances:

- 1.0761 = .618 retracement
- 1.0825 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0947 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

If the price reverses to the downside the targets below will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844.

Supports:

- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
- 1.0412 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (40-45 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (70-85 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 16, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62. Within C we have A, and B subwaves (colored red in the chart), with subwave B still developing from 123.44.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.44-122.55.

Resistances:

- 123.42 = .618 retracement
- 123.67 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.83 = COP
- 124.29 = objective point (OP)
- 124.37 = OP

If the price keeps falling the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-123.44, 119.53-123.44, and expansions off 123.44-122.55-123.12.

Supports:

- 122.57-53 = confluence area of COP and .50 retracement
- 122.32-23 = confluence area of .618 ret and OP
- 121.95 = .382 ret
- 121.68 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 121.49 = .50 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 16, 2011

AUD/USD is now trading within impulse wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0525, this wave is part of wave A of a larger degree from 1.0145 (colored light green in the chart). Now the former wave has subwaves A, B, and C, with potential subwave C is still developing from 1.0628 (colored magenta in the chart). This wave also has its subwaves, they are A, and B (colored red in the chart) that is developing from 1.0775.

The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525, 1.0525-1.0844-1.0628.

Resistances:

- 1.0825 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0947 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0981 = OP

If the price keeps falling the targets below will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0775, 1.0775-1.0679-1.0737.

Supports:

- 1.0641 = OP
- 1.0582-77 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .382 retracement
- 1.0559 = OP
- 1.0495 = .50 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (current prices as well), watch for possibilities of going long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Elliott wave count for February 16, 2012


Market Overview
The EUR/JPY pair was trading in a bullish mood for the last 10 days, yesterday in a European session after raising doubts about the Greek debt this major pair started falling under the 50 and 100 EMA support line and reached a new low few pips above the 200 EMA support around the 102.20 level.today in the early Asian session price continued a downward move to the 102.00 level slightly under 200 EMA support line. The EUR/JPY pair did not manage to hold this level and price started rising to 100 EMA Resistance, we are expecting to see price back to 102.00 before we can see price under the 101.50 level.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 101.41 (S2) 101.91 (S1) 102.22 (PP) 102.71 (R1) 103.21 (R2) 103.52 (R3) 104.01

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair finished 5 waves in the i wave at 101.91, and started a new 3 wave correction in ii wave.According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave ii will retrace 61.8% or 78.6% of wave i we can project our targets with Fibonacci retracement(103.47-101.91) to first take profit level at 102.87(61.8% of wave i) and second take profit at 103.14(78.6% of wave i).For stop loss we can use end of wave i at 101.91.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the upward movement to go higher today. That is why Long position at levels 102.50 with Stop Loss at 101.91, Take Profit at 102.87 and Take Profit 2 at 103.14 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for February 16, 2012


Market Overview
The USD/CAD pair was trading in a upward move yesterday, in a early European session this major pair tested 50 EMA 2 time before a price broke above the 200 EMA resistance line.Today in a Asian session price continued in a bullish mood and price reached a new high at the 1.0030 level, in a European session price continued to push reaching the 1.0050 level.We are expecting to see breaking to the 0.9954 level today.We need to take a look at USA Building Permits, PPI m/m,Unemployment Claims,Philly Fed Manufacturing Index that could affect this pair

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9914 (S2) 0.9939 (S1) 0.9954 (PP) 0.9979 (R1) 1.0004 (R2) 1.0019 (R3) 1.0044

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished (1) wave of the bigger iii wave at 1.0051 today, and started 3 corrective waves in (2) wave.According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that wave (2) will retrace 61.8% or 78.6% of wave (1) we can project our targets with Fibonacci retracement(1.0051-0.9937) to first take profit level at 0.9981(61.8% of wave (1)) and second take profit at 0.9962(78.6% of wave (1).For stop loss we can use end of wave i at 1.0051.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules the trend is expected to begin the downward movement to go lower today. That is why Short position at levels 1.0020 with Stop Loss at 1.0051, Take Profit at 0.9981 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9962 are recommended

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, For February 17 / 2012




Exit a week in which little has been done in Europe to revive Greece and solve the problem of debt.

As in several months, taking meetings and summits, conferences, warnings and even threats. It has called on Greece to impose very harsh adjustment plans, which he did. But no sign of an agreement committing their future.

It's simple. In light of the public, no one can be exposed to the best deal for Europe is that Greece abandon the euro area. But it's the truth. Then look further complicate the situation in the country Hellene changing conditions that are necessary to send money to save their collapse.

Greece, who since joining the euro area had a policy on waste of resources and political patronage, through the support of whom the request and falsified statistics to enter it now appears as the only culprit in this situation.

But did all of Europe that, and so did the banks and rating agencies, whose task is to investigate and advise, and seems to have discovered too late that Greece was not perhaps the best destinations for investment.

So the intermediate output, which appeared in these days is to approve aid for Greece, but to delay implementation until the elections scheduled for april. Before, of course, you will receive 14.4 billion euros, payable on 20 in March. The worst solution, doing things by little, without conviction, and courage will deliver both partners: Europe to send money that you know will never recover, and Greece in the euro zone out of it just because it would mean a catastrophe worse the present.

Besides all that the euro's fall was arrested Thursday in the U.S. session, and began to catch up on par with other leading currencies.

Friday's meeting operating on the European stock markets higher, with moderate gains, with the Dow Jones index futures recovered their losses on Wednesday.

As for the other currencies, the pound was strengthened by a retail sales data in Britain is much higher than expected, while the yen continues its downward trend, with the U.S. economic recovery for investors from currency refuge.

Particularly in the United States is expected to publish the retail inflation index of 8:30 Eastern, which could show an increase of 0.3% in January. Also be known, issued by the Conference Board leading indicators indicator which would have a positive tone for the fourth consecutive month, highlights the progress of the world's largest economy.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook, February 17, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD

The British pound - U.S. Dollar pair, yesterday broke its downtrend line short term due to rumors of a move by the ECB in an exchange of Greek bonds. Investors appear on guard and are awaiting further news and fundamental news, especially from Europe on the issue of Greek rescue plan.

On a technical level, the pair is trading right now at 1.5820, is backing its maximum yesterday, if the trend continues, we expect a reversal to the fractal 1.5700 and buy at this level with a medium term objective 1.60 the key psychological level.

Indicators of MCD, and range, show levels of resistance and overbought.

instaforex.com/sp/forex_analysis/50890/




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com






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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 17, 2012 (weekly Strategy)






AUD/USD



The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair remains bullish trend line for the moment we expect to continue rising.
On the other hand, only a definitive break its line of short-term trend. and a close below this will be the beginning of a sequence bass.

We therefore recommend selling only if the pair breaks its trendline, targeting 1.0480 medium term and as our ultimate goal to 1.0280 dollars per Australian.

The breakpoint will be above the maximum monthly.

The MCD indicator shows overbought levels and depletion of upward force.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com