Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 20, 2012






General situation:
Despite the quite successful start, on February 20 the USD/CHF pair has lost positions gained and moved down to the lower border of Ichimoku Cloud, forming the “dead cross”. The current signal for BUY-deals is confirmed but weak as the Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price has failed to overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, the first support level 0.9099 is considered as target for downside movement. Nevertheless, as long as the Ichimoku Cloud has not been overcome, it is recommended to refrain from entering the market. In case this level has been overcome, the second support level 0.8998, which is considered as new target for descending movement, will be available. The downward movement continues as long as the price is located below the Kijun-Sen (0.9215). While bearish trading it is recommended to set Stop Loss higher than Kijun-Sen. In case the price goes higher than this line, the signal for SELL-deals will weaken. Therefore, the further descending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span remains lower than the price chart confirming the current signal for SELL-deals and indicating the bearish mood of the USD/CHF pair. Bollinger Bands shows the beginning of downside trend, lines are expanding and directed downwards. Therefore, it is recommended to consider short positions. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current descending movement and enabling short positions. Nevertheless, it is recommended to enter the market only when the signal for BUY-deals has been strengthened.

Trading recommendations:
As to CHF operations it is recommended to consider SELL-deals with first target seen at the 0.9099 level but only after the breakdown of the Ichimoku Cloud. When this level has been overcome, the next target for short positions will be seen at the 0.8998 level. Stop Loss is to be placed higher than 0.9215. In case this line goes downwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. While opening the short positions MACD must indicate descending movement. With profit of 50-60 pips Stop Loss can be placed to zero area. Take Profit can be set higher than target levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 21, 2012


The five waves of AUD/USD from 1.0145 to 1.0844 now constitute one wave A of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Now we have corrective wave B that is developing from 1.0844 against the uptrend. Within this wave there are A, B and potential C waves (colored royal blue in the chart), with subwave C still developing. And within the latter there are also A, B and C subwaves (colored yellow in the chart).
The targets of the downmove are Fibnoacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0815, 1.0815-1.0745-1.0795.
Supports:
- 1.0683-82 = confluence area expanded objective point (XOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0614 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0599 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0815 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-45 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities of going short at or near the indicated resistances.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 21, 2012


GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62. Within C we have 1, 2, 3, and potential 4th subwave that is developing from 126.77 (colored red in the chart).
Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.44-122.55, 122.55-126.77-125.72.
Resistances:
- 127.23-31-41 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP), objective point (OP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 128.33 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-126.77.
Supports:
- 124.80 = .382 retracement
- 124.19 = .50 ret
- 123.59 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.




Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 22, 2012


GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 121.62. Within C we have 1, 2, 3, and potential 4th subwave that is developing from 126.77 (colored red in the chart).
Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-123.44-122.55, 122.55-126.77-125.59.
Resistances:
- 127.23-31-41 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP), objective point (OP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 128.20 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-126.77.
Supports:
- 124.80 = .382 retracement
- 124.19 = .50 ret
- 123.59 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-65 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis For February 22, 2012




No significant changes are taking place on Wednesday the European session, the currency market.

Except for the euro, which is still without a clear trend, the dollar is taking some strength against other currencies leaders, and stand out in this context its growth against the yen, which fell from 80 units in the last hour minimum value since mid- July.

Of course, the weak yen leads to lose ground against the euro too, which is still slightly firmer against the dollar and pound sterling to a lesser extent, as the low, who has been the same since the beginning of European session.

It is also remarkable the strength that has an ounce of gold, and oil, not yet filled a gap left in the Asian session on Monday, so it does not provide for $ 105.00, but no one is stronger.

At this point there is a growing concern in Europe. It is known dependence of the old continent with imports of oil which do not produce, and recently suspended as a measure of pressure, its commercial ties with Iran.

It is naive to believe that Europe will run out of oil, just because Iran did not send it, and that Iran will stop selling oil. These maneuvers are always speculative, and ultimately seek to increase the price of oil is too old.

For Europe to get the same oil from Iran, just enough that it will sell the crude to a country outside Europe and that Europe will not buy another country, other costs of course. If that was the concern should not be.

Gold also strengthens in these times, and positions with the upward trend in short-term charts, and search the area at $ 1,800. It is known that one ounce not long to go 20 or $ 30, and any shocking news could have that effect these days, something tumultuous markets.

No major reports to be published, the most relevant and was released in Europe, and certainly has not been encouraging, with European exchanges operate down to another day and the Dow Jones index futures to move away, down from the heights Monday, the rest of the day presented with good business opportunities in the short term charts.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.3320 February 22, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)






EUR/USD


The Euro - U.S. Dollar pair, remains without a definite trend, and forming a figure reversal technique, if we see in the picture, the gap opening earlier this week, has not yet been covered. So, that adds strength to our bearish outlook. According to the table pivots, the euro - dollar, is trading below the first resitencia weekly, so we think we could go back at least to 1.3130 or more down to 1.3050.

Therefore, we recommend selling at current price levels, and with a stop loss, a little above the monthly maximum around 1.3320, and our ultimate goal in this bearish strategy, we will place on the 61.8% retracement of fibinacci.

MCD indicator. is in a neutral point showing bearish signals.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com






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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 22, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD


The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair, continuous in the range of 200 pips, as we noted in the yellow box, and showing signs of a possible change in trend and a fall with greater intensity. We can not discard the possible pullback, which can take place, as almost always happens when a pair breaks its trendline.

Therefore, we can enter selling, only if the pair closes below 1.0610 or we can wait for the pullback expected to happen, and sell the bearish sequence.


The Range Indicator shows overbought signals.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 23, 2012


AUD/USD is now developing corrective wave B of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0844. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B, and C (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0815. This subwave was confirmed when the price broke below 1.0628 (top of wave A). However there are also smaller waves within the latter wave - they are A, and B (colored red) that is now developing from 1.0597.
Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0815.
Supports:
- 1.0599 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement
- 1.0495 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0815-1.0597.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 23, 2012


GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also waves of a still smaller degree - they are A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart), and potential corrective subwave 4 is developing against the uptrend from 126.77. Within this wave we have A, B, and C subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 126.55.
Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62.
Resistances:
- 127.23 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 127.41 = XOP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.62-126.77, 119.53-126.77, and epxansions off 126.77-125.59-126.55, 126.55-125.54-126.06.
Supports:
- 125.37 = objective point (OP)
- 125.05 = OP
- 124.80 = .382 retracement
- 124.64 = XOP

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-50 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis For February 23, 2012




Although from the European Commission have been planted gloomy forecasts about the future that awaits many countries of the old continent this year, the euro reached its annual maximum in the beginning of the session.

The occasion is the publication of the German IFO survey, which gathers more than 7000 executives on the business climate in that country, which in turn turns into an index. This value was 109.7 points today, above expectations, and the highest since last July.

This demonstrates the radically different picture presented by members of the eurozone. While Germany is doing better and better, and soon will affect the exchange rate of the euro, countries that follow in economic power began to falter and suffer cuts ratings on their debt, high unemployment rates, bewilderment. And the European periphery is the most suffering, with Greece as a prime example: 5 years of recession, a default disguised in euphemisms and money last minute, and a host of difficulties facing most basic expenses.

But Germany alone is able to support a currency that was responsible for design, build and operate, and that is what you see at these times. Beyond that, as mentioned several times in recent days, the euro has more to lose than to win in the near future, the strength of the first European power is reflected in movements like today.

The rest of the euro currency has followed a more attenuated. The franc, mirror of the single currency was the biggest beneficiary, with the highest since Nov. 14 so far. British pound also managed to take hold above 1.57, and yen positions seems to recover very slowly after the sharp decline in recent days.

The currencies linked to commodities also followed the upward trend, with the Canadian dollar once again breaking the deadlock before the dollar and the Australian aussie following an ounce of gold, which again is very strong, looking for $ 1800 .

Thursday's U.S. session will bring important as data requests per week of unemployment, at 8:30 Eastern, and oil inventories at 10:30.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD Sell Below Trendline, February 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD

The British pound - U. S. Dollar pair, has recovered from the sharp drop that was yesterday, the level of 1.5640. has proved to be strong support, because in four previous sessions the pair has not been able to break this level. the 50-day moving average,supports the strong level of support.

As we can see the yellow box, shows that the pound has been stagnated at range of 230 pips and is trading below its downtrend line short term.

Therefore recommend you sell below the trend line and the stop loss above the second resistance weekly, our short-term goal, it is placed right in the second weekly support around 1.5560 dollars per pound.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com






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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD

The Australian dollar - U. S. Dollar pair, following an ounce of gold, which again is very strong, trading at 1.0703 and continuous in the range of 200 pips, as we noted in the yellow box, and showing signs of a possible change in trend and a fall with greater intensity.

As we see in the graph the autraliano, is preparing a pullback, and entering an area of �‹�‹strong resistance, so we recommend waiting for the daily close, to sell. Believe that all this sharp rise the pair must correct at least to the level of 1.0280 U.S. dollars per Australian dollar.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 27, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) that is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 117.22. Within the former subwave there are also five waves of a still smaller degree (colored magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 125.41.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53, 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-126.77-125.41.

Resistances:

- 130.56 = objective point (OP)
- 130.99 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.41-129.71.

Supports:

- 128.07 = .382 retracement
- 127.56 = .50 ret
- 127.05 = .382 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 27, 2011

AUD/USD is now developing corrective wave B of long term uptrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0844. Within this wave there are subwaves A, B, and C (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0815. This subwave was confirmed when the price broke below 1.0628 (top of wave A). However there are also smaller waves within the latter wave - they are A, and B that is now developing from 1.0597 (colored magenta in the chart). The latter contains A, and B as well (colored red in the chart).

Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0844, 1.0597-1.0754, and expansions off 1.0844-1.0628-1.0815, 1.0815-1.0597-1.0754, 1.0754-1.0702-1.0748.

Supports:

- 1.0657 = .618 ret
- 1.0619 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0612 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0599 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0577 = .382 retracement

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions of the wave 1.0597-1.0754 and its retracement - the retracement is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com