Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Fundamental Analysis, December, 07 / 2011


Market's expectation regarding the situation in Europe is going through the summit on Thursday and Friday

remain the leaders of the European Union.

These summits, the results are not dissimilar to that of other mass gatherings, and are full of good

intentions, idioms and zero accomplishments, seems to give the old continent some air in your search for

internal consensus.

What is abundantly clear is that a system of decision making involving 17 countries, and need unanimity,

it is impossible to proceed.

It is even contradictory to think that Germany may have similar interests to Portugal, to name just one

example. On the other hand, trying to discipline governments that have been stored for 10 years the

slightest modesty in terms of expenditure, and their nations have borrowed to unbearable limits, is an

impossible mission.

The extreme voluntarism, without action of any kind, it appears to the pompous announcement of the search

for a common fiscal policy from here on out for members of the eurozone. But do not talk about what will

be done to cope with what has happened, which is very complex.

So think ahead is fine if circumstances permit, but here it is calling into question the validity of the

euro as euro itself moneda.Al not seem to worry too much what happens.

The single currency will not fall as might have happened in the past, in which, for reasons far less

difficult than the actual number of cents a day lost to the dólar.De However, it is tangible the low to

the Swiss franc, to which on the floor of 1.25 set by the Swiss National Bank for some time (the ceiling

was 1.20), and to the British pound, against whom he knew to be at 0.99 in his prime.


Moreover, rising oil prices and the announcement of the Bank of Canada not to lower the interest rate (at

1% was), something expected but positive at the time we live, has given strength to the Loonie over the

last 24 hours. Oil inventories in the U.S., at 10:30 Eastern, will give new Canadian currency movements,

that seems to have hit a ceiling of 1.0070 short term just hours ago.

The other major market benchmark, or at least its spirit, gold behaves no clear trend in the short term.

The Australian dollar continues its steps, and sought in the Asian session near 1.03, to give up then, in

line with the rest of the hard currencies in its low against the dollar.

We do not expect major movements of major junctions during the American session, beyond the usual at the

opening of the NYSE. Incidentally, the Dow Jones had a good closing Tuesday at 12,150 points, and their

futures are close to that level within hours of login.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/AUD Buy Above 1.3000, December 07, 2011 (Monthly Strategy)





EUR/AUD

The Euro - Australian dollar pair collapses in an exceptionally incisive way during a period of more than

two years and a half! This is one of the most aggressive major trends in the markets, certainly in the

context of serial weakening outside the euro area following the debt crisis on the continent, and the

good standing of the Australian economy as well as the large gap in interest rates, which was expanded in

recent years for Australia.

What is very interesting to discover that the pair has moved in a range of 1.2900 to 1.4200 for all the

great fall. We have good reason to believe that there is a possibility that such a correction would get

started already in the short term, following the temporary solution and the relative calm on the problem

of the European zone. It is assumed that even the smallest correction should push the pair towards the

resistance of 1.5000 Australian dollars per euro.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

November is expected to have created 120,000 new jobs, compared with 80,000 in October and the unemployment rate has remained at 9%. Of course, these data are their interpretations and revisions. Therefore, the figure is as good as last month's review in October, especially if they differ much from the series published in due time.

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Level For December 8th / 2011


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Resistance. 3 : 78.06.
Resistance. 2 : 77.91.
Resistance. 1 : 77.75.
Support. 1 : 77.56.
Support. 2 : 77.41.
Support. 3 : 77.25.

DESCRIPTION :

Please note for the levels of support. 3 (77.25) and Resistance. 3 (78.06), generally when a level is touched, the USD/JPY will turn around the opposite direction from the previous minimum of 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are managed on a breakout over 50 pips then it would be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For December 8th / 2011


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Breakout BUY Level : 1.3472.
Strong Resistance : 1.3464.
Original Resistance : 1.3451.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3438.
Target Inner Area : 1.3406.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3374.
Original Support : 1.3361.
Strong Support : 1.3348.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.3340

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3361 and 1.3451 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.3348 and 1.3464 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.3340 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.3472 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3374 and 1.3438 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.3406 level.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Buy Above 103,10 December 08, 2011 (Daily Strategy) EUR/JPY The Euro - Japanese yen pair maintains its upward trend in 4 hours charts, The pair goes to his weekly support of 103.10, at this level can enter buying euros, with a target to the 200-day moving average, it serves as a resistance level of 105.54, we believe that the pair again tried to break this level and stay above this, if the pair manages to close above this level we can enter a buy with a target around the end of last resistance at 108.50 yen per euro. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 9, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 119.31. Within this wave there are A and B waves (colored royal blue in the chart) of smaller degree, with subwave B still developing from 122.64. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 119.31-122.64, and expansions off 122.64-120.90-122.15, 122.15-120.86-121.58.
Supports:
- 120.78 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 120.58 = .618 retracement
- 120.41 = objective point (OP)
- 120.29 = OP
- 119.49 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 122.64 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 9, 2011

AUD/USD is developing potential impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0379. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored yellow in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0209. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9663-1.0379, and expansions off 1.0379-1.0145-1.0209.
Supports:
- 1.0064 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0021 = .50 retracement
- 0.9975 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9937 = .618 ret
- 0.9830 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0379 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (60-70 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (85-100 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, December, 13 / 2011


If European leaders believed that they meet and do a lot of ads, promises sanctions that are already planned for over 10 years and never met, and create commissions, corporations, chambers, equipment and other rubber stamps, would change the mood of the markets and going to restore confidence in them, on Monday had the answer.

The euro fell again, with European exchanges, accompanied by American stock markets, which of course do not believe that the EU summit last week to bring to fruition the sovereign debt crisis that bear much of the nations the old continent.

Be difficult to convince the markets with theoretical ads and no money in sight, and much more you will convince the various countries used to live with a very loose lifestyle to change their habits just because their government has wasted public money, with the approval of rating agencies now appear as severe, and advised banks to lend money at low rates.

You can not blame the banks, even if large part of responsibility, who are asked to pay, since it is their job. But it was clear that Greece or Portugal, or Ireland, could not afford the payments on the loans they took.

If it was not until now, and the summit has not left any positive conclusion as to goals of growth, exports, or creating jobs, why should change that in the future?

This interpretation is the one that markets, which in any event on Tuesday will have another focus: at 2:15 pm, ET the Fed will announce its monetary policy.

Unchanged interest rate view (the owner of his own Fed, Bernanke, canceled any possibility in this direction until within a year and a half), the expectation is to see that communicate the FOMC after the meeting that ends today .

The main macroeconomic indicators have improved markedly in the U.S. in recent months, beginning with the creation of employment, home sales and retail sales, and this is encouraging for the rest of the world.

Be seen, then, which is the view that the different governors of the Fed, whose words are usually very measures, but also very consistent with reality.

Also known in the U.S., although earlier, at 8:30, the number of retail sales, which could increase slightly from the October data.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, December 13, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)





EUR/USD

We have the Euro - U.S. Dollar, in clear strong support, historically on October 02 I come to the same level and provoke a rebound, that I take it up to the 1.4200, which has been consumed again to the fall up to the exact 1,32. at this moment we do not recommend buy or selling. Our strategy remains bearish. we must watch, if you buy the market may not lead to a fall deeper and if we sell, it may cause imminent rebound. we must be careful when there are these scenarios. Our weekly chart marks the monthly support level(M_S1) 1.3147 a strong floor. If this level is perforated, we could see a sharp fall of the euro to the level of 1.2800. On the other hand, if the rise occurs timid euro could lead to the nearest month resistance of 1.3800. at these levels can sell a long-term goal to 1.2840 dollars per euro.

The momentum indicator MACD and shows a possibility of imminent rebound. This analysis, we realize it before the fall in the Euro. instaforex.com/forex_analysis/42641/


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical analysis


The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel in 100.70 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a bearish channel more violent.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 100.70 with a 1st objective of 101.40, then 101.60. A break in 100.50 would invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD Intraday Technical analysis


The spot rate is currently testing the lower limit of its medium term bearish channel in 1.2920 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a bearish channel more violent.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.2920 with a 1st objective of 1.2980, then 1.3010. A break in 1.2900 would invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com