Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for February 27, 2012


Market Overview
On Friday the USD/CAD pair was trading within an upward movement. In the early Asian session the major started pushing higher to the 0.9985 level. The USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level, therefore during the European session the pair moved to the new daily low 0.9965. In the course of the New York session the pair climbed to new high 1.0000. Today we can observe the continuation of the bullish mood as the price is above the 1.0020 level. Today the pair is expected to test the resistance level 1.0030 before the beginning of the downside movement. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the USA Pending Home Sales m/m that could affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9950 (S2) 0.9964 (S1) 0.9973 (PP) 0.9987 (R1) 1.0001 (R2) 1.0010 (R3) 1.0024

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished the (B) wave of the bigger (2) wave at 0.9953. Presently we can observe the end of (C) wave. According to our wave rules and taking into consideration that the wave (3) is the longest, we can define the potential targets with help of Fibonacci extension (1.0050-0.9906-1.0030) with the first take profit at level 0.9940 (61.8% of wave (1)) and the second take profit at 0.9888 (100% of wave (1)). For stop loss we can use invalidation point in our count at 1.0050

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short position at levels 1.0010 with Stop Loss at 1.0050, Take Profit 1 at 1.0750 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0630 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis for February 28, 2012




As Greek default continues to be the object of voting and agreements due to the need of new loan, the rating agencies make attempts no to touch upon its fall.

This game is dangerous as it combines the lack of political will and the veracity of the rating that worsens the credit situation of a country whose poverty is increasing and continuous and reveals the results.

One may wonder how many votes and approval by large majorities are needed to solve this problem. If these votes were given by Germany, no one would doubt them.

The rhythm of stock markets move is influenced by the timid European governments and the fact that their contributors won and lost assets held in incessantly.

While Monday was an inappropriate day, the Tuesday’s European session showed the decrease of the major indexes including the modest losses of the old continent that remained almost unchanged compared to the day before.

The coins follow the same pattern of movement, and most of them are still in very narrow price range, although today they are (at least the European currencies) in a slight short-term uptrend, which could be consolidated during the American session.

These steps were followed by the Canadian dollar, which again strengthened the hand of oil, below the Monday’s high and the Australian dollar, which remained the gold also very strong.

The current data including the durable goods orders, was released at 8:30 Eastern. The key report and the consumer confidence index issued by the Conference Board were released at 10:00 (both in the U.S).

Germany rate of retail inflation is expected to appear soon, though it is necessary to consider that the schedule is not confirmed yet due to the flexibility of the European Central Bank. An increase in inflation in Germany naturally affects the economy and the whole Europe.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD Wave Analysis for February 28, 2012






Wave marking analysis:

After the yesterday’s repulse from the level of the figure 59 that took place during the Pacific session, the GBP/USD pair had lost over 100 pips by the end of the day. The inner wave structure of the ascending part of the trend that was formed on Friday does not seem to be very convincing. This enables the Pound to resume the growth to the targets located near the point 1.5930. At the same time, as it has been mentioned before, the 2nd wave (or the wave B) is likely to transform in more complicated corrective structure which, in turn, is expected to acquire the properties of diagonal triangle.

Targets for the variant with the wave 2 or B (in case it is complicated):
1.5662 – 38.2% according to Fibonacci
1.5581 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the variant with the wave 3 or C:
1.5933 – 261.8% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The formation of the ascending part of the trend within the wave 3 (or wave C) with targets seen at the 1.5933 (equal to 261.8% of Fibonacci) is very likely to resume. The continuous correction is considered as negative factor for the uprising part of the trend. Though it is possible that the ascending part of the trend will turn downwards, the Friday’s movement stimulated the formation of the uprising part of the trend. The renewal of the high of the wave 1 (or wave A) will be confirmed by the formation of the wave 3 (or wave C) indicating the further growth of the pair.




Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com






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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook for February 28, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD



The Australian dollar - U. S. Dollar pair, as well as the ounce of gold, once again is very strong, The aussie is trading at level 1.0772 and continuous the movement within the range of 200 pips, as it is evident in the yellow box. It provides the signs that the trend is likely to change and acquire the greater intensity.



As it is indicated on the chart, the Australian dollar is in the stage of stagnation though we believe that it will remain there for a short time. Therefore, we recommend sell-deals around the weekly R_1 at 1.0800 level. In case of a pullback sell-deals on weekly R_2 1.0920 with targets seen at the support level 1.0484 are recommended.
On the other hand, the range indicator is providing the overbuy signals.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com





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GBP/USD Buy Above Pivot Point, February 28, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD



The GDP /USD pair has failed to close the Friday’s deals above its 200 day moving average. This is the third attempt made by the pair. Given that the pair remains above the weekly pivot point, the upward trend is likely to continue. And the moving average of 200 periods is passed through, the psychological level 1.6060 will be considered as next target.



It is necessary to be cautious with bullish positions. The situation will probably change abruptly and it is possible that the pair will move within a correction to the area 1.5712 S_1. The best position for setting Stop-loss is below the weekly pivot point around 1.5810.

The Momentum indicator provides bullish signals.





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 29, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed five waves of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart) from 119.53 to 129.71. Now potential corrective wave A is developing from 129.71. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 119.53-129.71, and expansions off 129.71-126.63-128.39.

Supports:

- 126.49 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.82 = .382 retracement
- 125.31 = objective point (OP)
- 124.62 = .50 ret
- 123.42-41 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret

If the uptrend continues the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-126.77-125.41, 125.41-129.71-126.63.

Resistances:

- 130.56 = OP
- 130.93-99 = confluence area of OP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (65-85 pips above the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 29, 2011

AUD/USD finished the downwave from 1.08944 to 1.0597 - this is corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Now potential impulse wave C is developing from 1.0597. Within this wave we have A, B, and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0650. The latter, by the way, also has three subwaves (colored red in the chart), with impulse subwave C still developing from 1.0728.

Now the targets above the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0597-1.0754-1.0650, 1.0650-1.0786-1.0728.

Resistances:

- 1.0864 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0904 = expanded objective point (XOP)

However if the price reverses to the downside and breaks below 1.0728, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0650 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to go long when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for February 29, 2012


Market Overview
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading in downward movement. During the European session this major pair started pushing in bearish mood to the support level 0.9940. USD/CAD did not manage to hold this level, therefore during the New York session the pair started pushing higher to resistance level 0.9985 (100EMA).Today we can observe continuation of the bearish mood as price is lower then 0.9920 level.Today the USD/CAD pair is expected to go higher. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the EUR 3-y LTRO, USD Prelim GDP q/q,Chicago PMI,Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifie and Crude Oil Inventories that could affect the rate of the pair.


Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9909 (S2) 0.9929 (S1) 0.9942 (PP) 0.9962 (R1) 0.9982 (R2) 0.9995 (R3) 1.0015

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished corrective (C) wave of the bigger wave (2) at 1.0049, Presently we can observer wave (3). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave (3) is the longest, we can define the potential targets with help of Fibonacci extension (1.0050-0.99060-1.0049) with first Take Profit at level 0.9865(127.2% of wave (1)) and second Take Profit at 0.9815 (161.8% of wave (1)). For Stop Loss we can use the resistance level 0.9950.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. Therefore, Short position at levels 0.9900 with Stop Loss in the point 0.9950 Take Profit 1 at 0.9865 and Take Profit 2 at level 0.9815 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 1, 2011

GBP/JPY has developed five waves of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart) from 119.53 to 129.71. Now potential corrective wave A is developing from 129.71. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 119.53-129.71, 126.63-129.56, and expansions off 129.71-126.63-129.56.

Supports:

- 128.44 = .382 retracement
- 128.10 = .50 ret
- 127.75 = .618 ret
- 127.66 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 126.48 = objective point (OP)
- 125.82 = .382 retracement

If the uptrend continues the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 119.53-123.11-121.62, 121.62-126.77-125.41, 125.41-129.71-126.63.

Resistances:

- 130.56 = OP
- 130.93-99 = confluence area of OP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-40 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 1, 2011

AUD/USD finished the downwave from 1.08944 to 1.0597 - this is corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Now impulse wave C is developing from 1.0597. Within this wave we have A, and B subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 1.0856. The latter, by the way, also has two subwaves (colored yellow in the chart), with corrective subwave B still developing from 1.0715.

Now the targets above the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0844-1.0597, 1.0597-1.0856-1.0715.

Resistances:

- 1.0875 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0974 = objective point (OP)
- 1.1029 = COP

However if the price reverses to the downside and breaks below 1.0715, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0597-1.0856.

Support:

- 1.0696 = .618 ret


Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to go long when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 2, 2011

GBP/JPY is now moving within wave 5 of medium term uptrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 125.41. Within this wave we have subwaves A, B, and C (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 126.63. The latter, however, also has its subwaves (they're colored red in the chart), and subwave C is developing from 128.69.

Now the targets above the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 119.53-126.77-125.41, 125.41-129.71-126.63, 126.63-129.56-128.69.

Resistances:

- 129.88 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.50 = COP
- 130.93 = objective point (OP)
- 131.62 = OP

However if the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 126.63 - this wave is not developed, so no supports are available so far.



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for March 2, 2011

AUD/USD finished the downwave from 1.08944 to 1.0597 - this is corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Now impulse wave C is developing from 1.0597. Within this wave we have A, and B subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 1.0856. The latter, by the way, also has two subwaves (colored red in the chart), with corrective subwave B still developing from 1.0715.

Now the targets above the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0844-1.0597, 1.0597-1.0856-1.0715.

Resistances:

- 1.0875 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0974 = objective point (OP)
- 1.1029 = COP

However if the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0597-1.0856, and expansions off 1.0856-1.0715-1.0817.

Support:

- 1.0730 = COP
- 1.0696 = .618 ret
- 1.0676 = OP
- 1.0598 = XOP



Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving up, so it's prefereable to go long when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-25 pips below the current prices), watch for possibilities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for March 2, 2012


Market Overview
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading in downward movement. During the European session this major pair started pushing in bearish mood to the 0.9870 level, therefore during the New York session the USD/CAD pair continued to following the trend and price reached a new low at 0.9840 level.Today we can observe bullish mood in the Asian session.

Today the USD/CAD pair is expected to test 50 EMA resistance before we can see price reaching a new low.

Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the Canadian GDP that could affect the rate of the pair.


Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9808 (S2) 0.9830 (S1) 0.9844 (PP) 0.9866 (R1) 0.9888 (R2) 0.9902 (R3) 0.9924

USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis
The USD/CAD pair finished the 5th impulse wave of the bigger ((3)) wave at 0.9840.

Presently we can observe the end of ((4)) wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave ((4)) will finish in 3 corrective waves under 0.9906 level we can enter short in Final ((5)) wave. Assuming that wave ((5)) will be equal as ((1)) wave we can project our targets to First Take Profit at 0.9800(61.8% of ((1)) wave) and Second Take Profit at 0.9745(100% of ((1)) wave).For Stop Loss we can use invalidation point at level 0.9906.

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. Therefore, short position at levels 0.9865 with Stop Loss in the point 0.9906 Take Profit 1 at 0.9800 and Take Profit 2 at level 0.9745 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com