Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 24, 2012

The GBP/JPY pair is developing an impulse wave A of the medium term uptrend from 127.04 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have two subwaves (red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B developing from 131.73.

The downside targets are Fibonacci retracements of 127.04-131.73 and expansions of131.73-130.14-130.92.

Supports:

- 129.94 = .382 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 129.38-33 = .50 ret and objective point (OP)
- 128.83 = .618 ret
- 128.35 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions of 127.04-131.73-130.14.

Resistances:

- 133.04 = COP
- 134.83 = OP



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it is preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices). Consider the opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 24, 2012

The AUD/USD pair is developing potential impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0451. Inside this wave we have three subwaves (royal blue in the chart) and an impulse subwave C developing from 1.0417 that comprises three subwaves (magenta in the chart); an impulse subwave C is developing from 1.0383.

The downside targets are Fibonacci expansions of 1.0856-1.0226-1.0451, 1.0451-1.0304-1.0417, 1.0417-1.0309-1.0383, 1.0383-1.0271-1.0324.

Supports:

- 1.0212-08 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0179 = XOP
- 1.0143 = XOP
- 1.0100 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses to the upside, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0383. This wave is not developed yet, so resistances are not available.



Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it is preferable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices), consider the possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Elliott wave count for April 24, 2012 EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Last week the EUR/JPY pair has finished the development of the 4 wave (coloured green). Yesterday the development of the wave 5 (coloured green) has started. During the Asian session the EUR/JPY pair has started descending movement towards the 107.15 level. Therefore during the New York session we can observe the continuation of the bearish mood and price fall to 106.31.Today in Asian session the EUR/JPY retested yesterday low at 106.31 .We can consider this move as the end of the wave 1 of the bigger wave 5. Presently we can observe the end of the 2 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 4, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracements (104.61-107-993). Take Profit 1 at 105.34(78.6% of wave 4) and Take Profit 2 at 104.62 (100% of wave 4). As Stop Loss the resistance level at 107.40 can be used. Support and Resistance levels (S3) 105.48 (S2) 106.05 (S1) 106.40 (PP) 106.97 (R1) 107.54 (R2) 107.89 (R3) 108.46 Trading Forecast Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 106.30 with Stop Loss at 107.40, Take Profit 1 at 105.34 and Take Profit 2 at 104.62 are recommended. Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012 More analysis - at instaforex.com

New Home Sales - Fundamental Analysis for April 24, 2012


On Tuesday the dollar has dropped on all fronts during the European session, while the European exchanges operate with

modest gains, recovering yesterday’s lows of its majors.

Even the Dow Jones index futures regained its in early U.S. session. The situation has proved to be favorable, as after the

opening of the NYSE the index regained more than 100 points lost on Monday.

As for the majors, the pound sterling heads a series of rises in hard currencies after reaching its highest level since

October 31. A number of economic data published in Britain in recent has not only revealed an improvement in the employment

and retail sales but also an increase in inflation, which can force the Bank of England to raise their rates interest. On

Wednesday the preliminary data on UK GDP for the first quarter will be published. This fact can leave behind the recession

of the British economy.

As for the euro, there is no breaking news. On Monday the European currency has decreased modestly after the resignation in

the middle of the Netherlands Government. But it was slowly moving the upward trend on the 4 hours charts waiting for key

data of the American session.
At 10:00 Eastern the data from the Conference Board on new home sales and consumer confidence is expected. These reports

are considered as the most relevant reports of the day.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012



More analysis - at instaforex.com



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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook for April 24, 2012 (Daily Strategy)








The Australian dollar was traded at 1.0277 above the 1.0254 second support weekly. This is a strong support level, given

that this is the daily fractal of 1.0246 and W_S2 weekly. Both support levels are held by the Aussie.

Given that the indicators MACD and Momentum are showing bullish signals, recommend Buy-deals with objectives seen at the

recent weekly resistance 1.0542. A closure above 1.0316 will increase the chances for upward growth.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com






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GBP/USD Technical Correction for April 24, 2012 (Daily Strategy)









Data on retail sales released on Friday has influenced positively on the British Pound, as the volume of retail sales in

March increased by 1.8% compared to the growth forecast of 0.4%. Overcoming expectations .

On a technical level we can say that the pound is remaining within its upward trend, although the MACD indicators shows the

overbought. The levels 1.6180 and 1.6236 are the next resistances.

Given that the pair should give a correction technique, we recommend selling on the resistance levels of 1.6180 with

targets up to the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




More analysis - at instaforex.com





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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for April 24, 2012









Wave marking analysis:
On Friday the USD/JPY pair has begun its descent that yesterday acquired additional dynamics. As a result, the price has

reached levels near figure 81. In case this descending movement develops according to the corrective scenario, then the

yesterdays low can be considered as the end of the wave A in 2 (or B). If that proves to be so, then, when the formation of

the wave B has been completed, the pair will continue the movement towards the point 80.80 or even 80.55. At the same time

the MACD divergence looks controversial, as its elaboration can lead to the fall of quotes below the minimum of April 16

(80.30).



Targets for the option with the wave 2 or B:
80.83 – 23.6% according to Fibonacci
80.55 – 11.4% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the option with the wave 3 or C:
82.02 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
82.30 – 88.6% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
Presently we can see that despite the formation of the ascending part of the trend, we cannot define properly, which part

of the trend has begun: whether this is a correction against the pair’s decline that took place in recent weeks or whether

this is the resumption of the global ascending trend. The inner wave marking of the current ascent of quotes point at 3-

wave structure. It is possible that the wave B (corrective) will be formed followed by the formation of the wave C

(impulse). Also the whole ascending structure is likely to be transformed into 5-wave one. That is why the pair is expected

to continue its downward movement towards 80.55 (wave 2 or B) and followed by the reversal towards the 82.30 level (wave 3

or C).


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


More analysis - at instaforex.com









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GBP/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 24, 2012






General situation:
On April 24 the GBP/USD pair rate continued the ascending movement enabling the continuation of the upward movement of the

trend towards the first resistance level 1.6239. The correction has not begun yet. The current signal for Buy-deals is

confirmed and strong as the Chinkou Span is fixed above the price chart and the price has overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. At

the moment the target for ascending movement is seen at the first resistance level 1.6239. If the upward movement

continues, the point 1.6356 will be considered as the next target. The uprising movement remains the same as long as the

price is located above the Kijun-Sen line (1.6020). It is recommended to place the Stop Loss below this line while bullish

trade. In case the rate goes lower than this line, this will probably indicate that the elaboration of the signal for Buy-

deals. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for Buy-deals and indicating the bearish

mood on the GBP/USD market. Billinger Bands points at the ascending movement, lines are expanding and directed upwards,

that is the reason why it is recommended to consider long positions. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current

corrective movement though yesterday the rate did not significantly decline, so the indicator’s descent (the indicator’s

reversal to downwards) is irrelevant. The Stochastic can be used instead.



Trading recommendations:
At the moment on the GBP/USD market it is recommended to consider long positions with target seen at the 1.6239 level. In

case the first target has been overcome, the new target for bullish trade – the level 1.6356 will be available. Stop Loss

is to be placed below 1.6020 and as this line goes higher, the level for Stop Loss can be replaced. When the Stochastic

leaves the overbuy zone, it is better to reduce manually the positions. With 50-60 pips of profit for long positions, Stop

Loss is to be placed to the non-loss area. Take Profits should be placed a bit lower than the target levels, i.e. at 1.6230

and 1.6345 levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

Analyst of the Year contest



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 26, 2012

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave A of medium term uptrend from 127.04 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have three subwaves (magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 130.14. Within it there are also three subwaves (red in the chart), and subwave C is developing from 130.46.

Now the immediate resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 127.04-131.73-130.14, and 130.14-131.60-130.46.

Resistances:

- 131.92 = objective point (OP)
- 132.82 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 133.04 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.04-131.75.

Supports:

- 129.95 = .382 retracement
- 129.40 = .50 ret
- 128.84 = .618 ret



Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 26, 2012

AUD/USD is developing potential impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0451. Inside this wave we have two subwaves (light green in the chart), and corrective subwave B is developing from 1.0247. Within this wave there are three subwaves (orange red in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 1.0305.

The targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0451-1.0247, and expansions off 1.0247-1.0338-1.0305, 1.0305-1.0348-1.0313.

Resistances:

- 1.0373 = .618 retracement
- 1.0383 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0396 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0426 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0452 = XOP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0247 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.



Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (5-20 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 26, 2012

AUD/USD is developing potential impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (coral in the chart) from 1.0451. Inside this wave we have two subwaves (light green in the chart), and corrective subwave B is developing from 1.0247. Within this wave there are three subwaves (orange red in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 1.0305.

The targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0451-1.0247, and expansions off 1.0247-1.0338-1.0305, 1.0305-1.0348-1.0313.

Resistances:

- 1.0373 = .618 retracement
- 1.0383 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0396 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0426 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0452 = XOP

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0247 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.



Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (5-20 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for April 26, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
The USD/CAD pair started developing 3 wave (coloured blue) last week. Yesterday during the European session we observed a descending towards 0.9855. Therefore during the session in New York this major continued to go in a bearish mood and the price reached the low of 0.9823. Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair reached a 7-month low at 0.9805. We can consider this move as the end of the (3) wave that retrace 161.8% of (1) wave. Presently we are at the start of the 4 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave (4) retraces 50% of the wave (3), we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (0.9927-0.9805) with Take Profit at 0.9864 (50% of wave 3). For Stop Loss the support level at 0.9800 can be used. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales m/m that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9788 (S2) 0.9809 (S1) 0.9823 (PP) 0.9845 (R1) 0.9866 (R2) 0.9880 (R3) 0.9902

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 0.9830 with Stop Loss at 0.9800 and Take Profit at 0.9864 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for April 30, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Last week the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward movement developing 3 wave (coloured blue). During the Friday's Asian session we could observe the price pushing higher toward 0.9870 level (100EMA resistance). Therefore during the European session the USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower. In the late New York session the major started trading in a sideways movement.Today during the Asian session the price continued to be traded in a sideways move. We expect the price go lower today in European and New York session. Presently we can observe the end of the 5 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 138.2% of the wave 1 with Take Profit at 0.9767 (138.2% of wave 1). For Stop Loss the resistance level at 0.9845 can be used.Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI and CAD GDP m/m, Gov Council Member Lane Speaks, RMPI m/m that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9753 (S2) 0.9780 (S1) 0.9797 (PP) 0.9824 (R1) 0.9851 (R2) 0.9868 (R3) 0.9895

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9800 with Stop Loss at 0.9845 and Take Profit at 0.9767 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/MXN Elliott wave count for April 30, 2012


USD/MXN Elliott Wave
During the Friday's European session the USD/MXN pair was trading in a downward movement toward to 13.165 level(100EMA). Therefore during the New York session the USD/MXN continues trading in a bearish mood to the new low at 12.960 level.We can consider this move as end of the 3 wave (coloured pink).Today this exotic currency start in a Sideways move. Presently we can observe start of the 4 wave (coloured pink).We are expecting to see price higher today.In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (13.287-13.047-13.265). Take Profit at 12.886 (161.8% of wave 1). As Stop Loss the invalidation point at 13.100 can be used.Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 12.8992 (S2) 12.9316 (S1) 12.9640 (R1) 12.9691 (R2) 13.0015 (R3) 13.0339

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 13.000 with Stop Loss at 13.100 and Take Profit at 12.886 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com