Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 20, 2011

The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective wave 4 of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-132.48, expansions off 132.48-131.40-131.86, 131.86-130.80-131.25.
Supports:
- 130.78 = objective point (OP)
- 130.59 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.38 = .50 retracement
- 130.19-11 = confluence area of OP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 129.89 = .618 ret
- 129.53 = XOP
If the price reverses up and moves above 131.25 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 132.48-130.80.
Resistances:
- 131.44 = .382 retracement
- 131.64 = .50 ret
- 131.84 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up but current wave is corrective it's preferable to wait until wave 5 manifests itself by at least breaking above 131.25, therefore stand aside in the meantime.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD technical analysis for January 20, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 0.9980, 1.0212, 1.0290
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is testing the resistance level at 0.9980. Earlier the USD/CAD has bounced off after refreshing a multi-month low. The viewpoint to the pair is still bearish as the downtrend remains. As mentioned before, the breakout of the 0.9890 support level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Moreover, this breakout has provided certain interest to selling and quite significant interest to purchase from corporate market participants.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for January 20, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP currency pair is rolling back after it could not break the support level near 0.8337.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP pair has formed the Shooting star candlestick that indicates further downside movement. This candlestick shows that earlier the EUR/GBP rebounded sharply after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level at 0.8283. However, it reversed near 8500. In its turn it means that the bears were active on this level and the bulls could not solidify here.
The breakout of the 0.8389 support level proves this viewpoint. Now downside movement targeted to the support level 0.8283 should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop-loss signals should be placed slightly above 0.8500 as the break of this level will target the pair to 0.8650.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 20, 2011

The USD/JPY pair is declining further from 83.67 after it could not break the 83.67 resistance level. As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, January 20, 2011


A declining trend has been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets led by financial sector stocks after the Goldman-Sachs bank recorded a decline in profits and the publication of Chinese growth data awakened concerns of continuation of monetary tightening policies by the Chinese government. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange declined by 1.1%, Seoul dropped by 0.6%, while the Hong Kong stock exchange dropped by 1.3% of its value.

In the global macroeconomic sphere, the United States Department of Trade reported yesterday that the amount of new construction projects in the United States has dropped by 4.3% to an annualized rate of 529 thousand, the lowest rate since October 2009, below that predicted by analysts. That said, the amount of building permits leaped up by 16.7% to an annualized rate of 635 thousand, the highest rate since March.

China's GDP grew by 9.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010, this due to growth in industrial production and retail sales. Accelerated growth in China has raised concerns that decision makers in the country will make additional steps to tighten monetary policy, such as an additional rise in the interest rate.

The IEA has warned yesterday of the possibility of oil prices rising to 100 United States dollars for one barrel of oil. The agency announced that a price of 100 United States dollars for one barrel may form a burden, knocking down the global GDP by 5%. Crude oil prices have declined yesterday due to disappointing data from the United States construction sector and a strengthening of the United States dollar against the leading currencies. Crude oil futures for February have declined by 0.6%, locking at a price of 90.85 United States dollars for one barrel of oil on the New York Commodities Exchange. Also at the commodities exchange, the price of gold rose yesterday by 0.2%, locking at a level of 1,370.20 United States dollars for one ounce of gold.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 20, 2011


4-hour timeframe




During yesterday's trading the GBP/USD pair continued to advance and gained 150 pips. At the same time the upward movement was located within the estimated 3rd wave (b, or 3rd) forming inner wave structire of its 5th wave. If so, this 3rd looks pretty complete, which implies certain decline before the pound tries again to test the 1.6055 level, reached yesterday. Moreover, MACD divergence indicates possible decline.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010Overview:
The buy signal with target level at 1.5722 is being developed; though the target level has been reached, there are no signs of upside movement yet, we can also see the current correction. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. At the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.6010 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.6155. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.5935), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is descending, indicating the current corrective movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.6010, and further to 1.6155. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.5935. Resume trading up after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com







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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 20, 2011



4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The euro is still developing a buy signal with target level at 1.3298; however, correction movement is continuing as well. The formed signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price got over the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3606 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3824. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3390), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up, which indicates corrective movement as well. The MACD is descending, indicating the current corrective movement.




Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3606, and further to 1.3824. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3390. Resume upward trading after the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 20, 2011








The EUR/USD currency pair resumed growth and gained 150 pips during yesterday’s trading. At the same time the formation of estimated 5th wave (in the 5th) inner wave structure of the whole uptrend developed since January 10. It is also worth mentioning that further testing of yesterday’s target level (with the price coming to 1.3540) and complication of the 5th wave structure (in the 5th) allow the euro to reach the levels near the 36 figure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD Fractal Analysis , Janaury 20, 2011 (Daily Strategy) EUR/USD Today, the important levels for EUR/USD are 1.3538, 1.3465, 1.3456. A short-term high is expected in the range of 1.3538-1.3570, An impulsive descendant movement can take place after the breakout of 1.3414, here potential target is 1.3240. Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD Fractal Analysis , Janaury 20, 2011 (Daily Strategy) EUR/USD Today, the important levels for EUR/USD are 1.3538, 1.3465, 1.3456. A short-term high is expected in the range of 1.3538-1.3570, An impulsive descendant movement can take place after the breakout of 1.3414, here potential target is 1.3240. Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 21, 2011

The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective wave 4 of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-132.48, 130.65-132.24, expansions off 132.48-130.65-132.24.
Supports:
- 131.63 = .382 retracement
- 131.44 = .50 ret
- 131.26 = .618 ret
- 131.11 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.41-38 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 ret
- 129.89 = .618 ret
If the price reverses up and moves above 132.24 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-132.48-130.65.
Resistances:
- 133.24 = COP
- 134.66 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 134.84 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up but current wave is corrective it's preferable to wait until wave 5 manifests itself by breaking above 132.48, therefore stand aside in the meantime.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

This week the EUR/GBP pair is trading up this week after a slight rollback. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD technical analysis for January 21, 2011

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650

Resistance levels: 1.0050, 1.0212, 1.0290

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has successfully broken the resistance level at 0.9980 to roll back further. Earlier the USD/CAD has bounced off after refreshing a multi-month low.
At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is neutral. As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9980 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com