Thread: Iraq/Dinar News. 09/05 to 01/14/07

Originally Posted by Ranger III

What's to prevent the Foreign Investment Law from being enacted any day now? Wasn't it passed unanimously around October 10th, and didn't I read
that a typical lag time between passing and enactment is 7 to 10 days?

Maybe it's because of (i) a delay cause by the implementation committee that was appointed; (ii) Ramadan; (iii) details concerning the 10,000 dinar
gift; (iv) publication in the official Gazette being slow; or (v) pricing logistics surrounding an r/v. But it appears to me that the enactment should take place by October 31st or sooner.

Where am I going wrong?

A committee was being formed to come together and decide on an enactment date. They said it would be enacted within the month.....I'd say, latest be around the 7th November. By which time the hydrocarbon should be done.....

As we know with these Iraqi's, anything is possible.....

Topic: Oil
Iraq has resumed exports of crude oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan after an interruption of several months, according to an official of Iraq's Northern Oil Company (NOC).

This good news for Iraq's troubled oil industry came, however, as the largest refinery in the country was shut down for the fourth day running due to a lack of electricity.
"After several months of interruption, pumping resumed permanently following intermittent and irregular pumping over the past month," said the NOC company executive, who asked not to be identified for his own safety.

The interruption, stemmed from continuous attacks on the pipelines, problems with the storage facilities in Ceyhan and general deterioration of the pipelines due to age.

In June, the NOC also announced a resumption of exports to Turkey following a four-month hiatus, but the resulting flow was still sporadic.

This time around, however, the company is confident that increased security on the pipeline will ensure the exports remain steady.

The company managed to get a consistent flow going by Thursday night and now the pipeline is carrying 250,000-350,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Most of Iraq's oil production, some two million bpd, comes from the south, although international experts agree that the northern fields are under-developed.

The news came at the same time that the massive Baiji refinery in central Iraq was shut down due to a breakdown of the nearby thermal power station.

"The Baiji refinery stopped its production of products for the fourth successive day due to electricity cuts," said a refinery official.

Iraq suffers from a chronic shortage of gasoline, kerosene and other fuel products resulting in endless lines at the petrol stations.

When the Baiji refinery is working, Iraq produces 10 million liters of gasoline domestically, barely half of the 22 million liter daily demand.

Source: Turkish Daily News

Interesting,

We have seen the worse and the best of how people handle stress and uncertainty on these and other forums. This is human nature, and generally, most do not have the patience to just sit back and read and learn while they are awaiting the lottery drawing date to cash in their winning tickets. (g)

Yes, some will take it better than others, but the bottom line is this revalue has to happen, so no sense in getting upset over the delays which are inevitable in such a complex situation as Iraq is now in. Just look how far they have come in just the last month, amazing, so it only makes sense a few problems would get in the way, and they have.

We see so many put too much into CBI web site going down, who cares, this mean little about what is going on behind the scenes, heck, it was not even a gov. controled site, so don't read into it more than what it is, a sourse of published auction activity. Who cares about a web site, we all know a web site is little more than a news outlet in most cases, so why so many went off hell bent over this, who knows? Sure struck me as strange, but I guess some want to grasp at straws at this point, but look where it got us?

I see some losing hope, and this is to be expected given the crazy news we are constantly force fed in the media. The way I see it at this point is we are seeing the final stage set, and just as the play is about to begin, someone robs the box office reciepts. (g) Now picture this, the actors are in place, the stage hands have already worked tirelessly to prepare show, and now they are faced with the possibility of not getting paid. What to do? The audience is seated, what to do? Well, we all know the saying, the show must go on, and this is no different in my opinion, the show will go on, so a little more patience is required, so enjoy the show. (g)

Seriously, we are seeing corruption uncovered, thefts of billions being claimed, and all this came at the last minute just when so many peices of puzzle were finally falling into place. We got spoiled with all the good news, so it is to be expected it would get some people down when faced with the new problems of 3,000 gov. employees being ousted, top level officials are being investigated, uncertainty of Maliki's leadership as he has yet address one of the most serious issues, the armed militia.

In my opinion, corruption is the final piece, you have to get rid of the thieves and corruption at high levels first. After all, if billions of dinar were stolen or misappropriated, whatever, you cannot revalue and reward these crooks, so they had to deal with this first, and they are, so in my opinion, this is a good sign we are real close, so patience, lets see who is replaced in parliament and CBI and we will have a better picture of what is really going on. We will see a revalue, it has to happen, so be happy you were in the right place at the right time, and enjoy the action, in a peaceful and respectful way. (g)

Good luck to all, Mike

CNN accused of 'enemy propaganda'

SAN DIEGO, Oct. 20 (UPI) -- The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Friday accused CNN of showing an "enemy propaganda film" of a

U.S. soldier shot by a sniper in Iraq.

Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., sent a letter to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld -- signed by two other Republican members of Congress from California -- asking that CNN reporters be barred from being embedded with U.S. troops.

"I think Americans like to think we're all in this together," Hunter said. "The average American Marine or soldier has concluded after seeing that film that CNN is not on their side."

CNN producer Brian Doss said that Michael Ware, a Baghdad correspondent, received the tape indirectly from a spokesman for the Islamic Army, and the network decided to air it after extensive internal debate.

"Whether or not you agree with us in this case, our goal, as always, is to present the unvarnished truth as best we can," he said on the CNN Web site.



CNN SUCKS, and this is a perfect example of slanted reporting on Iraq.

Good luck to all, Mike

I have been trying to keep up with all of this, and it is difficult. There is so much info out there, but there is one thing that has been bothering me or nagging me.

Q: The HCL has it go through there 3 readings yet, through the commitee?

I am not sure, everyone one thought it passed, but am I wrong that it has to go through 3 reading and it has not and that is why it has not passed yet.

I know we all have had our ups and down on this, there has been some curve balls thrown at us, I have told a few people that are going through this period of time keep one foot in the real world and the other in the virtual plain and we can all get through this yoyo sitition.

I have a gut feeling that it will go so, but we all have to have patients.

GO DINAR/ GO R/V

I was just tooling around on the IMF site and found this. I just thought it was interesting.

Question: Do you have an estimate on what kind of range we should expect in oil prices in the coming year or two? And are there any estimates on how much high oil prices could impact general growth?
Answer: Projecting the oil price is something that is fraught with uncertainty. When we look at the futures markets, which include the expectations of what markets think are going to happen to prices, they basically see prices remaining at around the current level over the medium-term, a little bit of a rise in the short-term, a little bit of a decline in the longer-run, but around the same level overall. And I think that reflects the very tight fundamentals in the oil market, the low level of excess capacity that we have, and the fact that investment is not taking place in the oil sector as fast as we would like to see, given that demand in the world continues to increase. So we seem to be looking at a period of continued sustained high oil prices. But there is a lot of uncertainty.

Regarding the impact of high oil prices, we do have broad estimates. If you are going to use a very rough rule of thumb, I would say a 10 percent rise in oil prices reduces global growth by 0.1 to 0.15 percent. It does vary, of course, according to the reason why oil prices increase, but you are going to take a very broad rule of thumb, that is the one we use.

This is from April....and they thought it was moving slow then?

Cheers!
DayDream

Originally Posted by DayDream

I was just tooling around on the IMF site and found this. I just thought it was interesting.

Question: Do you have an estimate on what kind of range we should expect in oil prices in the coming year or two? And are there any estimates on how much high oil prices could impact general growth?
Answer: Projecting the oil price is something that is fraught with uncertainty. When we look at the futures markets, which include the expectations of what markets think are going to happen to prices, they basically see prices remaining at around the current level over the medium-term, a little bit of a rise in the short-term, a little bit of a decline in the longer-run, but around the same level overall. And I think that reflects the very tight fundamentals in the oil market, the low level of excess capacity that we have, and the fact that investment is not taking place in the oil sector as fast as we would like to see, given that demand in the world continues to increase. So we seem to be looking at a period of continued sustained high oil prices. But there is a lot of uncertainty.

Regarding the impact of high oil prices, we do have broad estimates. If you are going to use a very rough rule of thumb, I would say a 10 percent rise in oil prices reduces global growth by 0.1 to 0.15 percent. It does vary, of course, according to the reason why oil prices increase, but you are going to take a very broad rule of thumb, that is the one we use.

This is from April....and they thought it was moving slow then?

Cheers!
DayDream

This is why some are predicting Jan/Feb for a r/v........

Originally Posted by Ranger III

What's to prevent the Foreign Investment Law from being enacted any day now? Wasn't it passed unanimously around October 10th, and didn't I read
that a typical lag time between passing and enactment is 7 to 10 days?

Maybe it's because of (i) a delay cause by the implementation committee that was appointed; (ii) Ramadan; (iii) details concerning the 10,000 dinar
gift; (iv) publication in the official Gazette being slow; or (v) pricing logistics surrounding an r/v. But it appears to me that the enactment should take place by October 31st or sooner.

Where am I going wrong?

Well I received an email from Warka on friday saying that they were basically sorting out all the historical isx purchases from individual clients like me. This information came to me as part of an email informing me that they had purchased my last stock order. I had no other information of my stock order or my current balance in my account. I assumed from this email that there were preparing to transfer the shares from the company to the investors names, that tells me that they are implementing the FIL now or they will be in the next few days.

Originally Posted by Dinar Duchess

We may have had this information before, but I was looking at the auctions for the CBI and it looks as though the most days without having an auction is 5 days. Today is the 5th day assuming there have been no auctions since the 16th.

They are not likely to have an auction today and so the earliest will be monday or tuesday.. That will be 7 days .... a record i think.

Sunday is there Monday. There is normally a auction every Sunday. So tomorrow will be a very interesting day to watch.

From another site by Paynes1 “Connecting the Dots”

If I posted this in the wrong place or if we are not allowed to bring good info from other forums, please forgive me and remove this post.

A post by Paynes1 was previously posted here at Rolclub, this one is a follow up posted yesterday.

Regards,

PK


The Marshall Plan
The Marshall Proposal of Assistance to Europe, July 10, 1947; European Recovery Program; Secretary of the Treasury, Alphabetical File; John Snyder Papers.

Pg 9 last pargraph.
"The most important being the establishment of REALISTIC RATES OF EXCHANGE among the European countries. Experience has shown that when a countrys RATES OF EXCHANGE are widley out of line with realitive purchasing power - the flow of goods is impeded."

How will they be able to justify a higher peg to make thier rates of exchange in line with other countries to the International Monetary Fund.

The Justification.
Icarus posted this awhile back http://dsbb.imf.org/vgn/images/pdfs/opguide.pdf
Low and behold we have a 77 page manual called International Reserves Foriegn Currency and Liquidity on page 62 apendix v we have the start of a template that Countries can submit exchange rate fundamentals on if you look at pg 65 under futures you notice a place where oil can be sold as a future.



http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/i...eng/curmar.htm
This is the same format as the template. It has it all Sdrs, Futures, gold, Derivitives Etc. Morocco does not list oil as part of its exchange rate in the futures section. However, Morocco has a Exchange rate of http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...submit=Convert around 11 cents per us dollar, and thier Holding of currency within fund as of July 31, 2006 is http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/t...ition_flag=YES


Tunisia has a template too, and it has includes the balance of payments, gold , securites, and it is the same as Moroco because it does not list Oil as a
Future.http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/i...eng/curtun.htm
and there exchange rate is http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...submit=Convert 75 cents to US dollar. and there holding of the within the the fund as of July 31. 2006 is http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/t...ition_flag=YES

What do get when you go to a major Oil Producing country and look at thier stats. http://dsbb.imf.org/Applications/web...t/?strcode=KWT You will see no template at all huh, makes you go hmmm.
Kuwait enjoys a high exchange rate with the US. http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...submit=Convert
It does not make sense that a country such as kuwait should have such a high exchange rate unless it is do to with oil.

Morocco has 517,756 362 in Imf fund holdings with 11 cent exchage rate.
Tunisia has 266,274, 397 in Imf fun holdings with 75 cent exchange rate
Iraq has http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/t...ition_flag=YES
1,314,472,991 in Imf holdings. with a .00068 exchange rate. A tad bit undervalued exchange rate for a country that might have more reserves than Saudi Arabi and and between $1.00 and $1.50 extraction cost per barrell of oil.( Sporters Article)

Here is sporters article its a good read.
Oil in Iraq: the heart of the Crisis - Global Policy Forum - UN Security Council
This came form a prior thread.
http://www.investorsiraq.com/iraqi-g...light=peak+oil

The whole key to this is template of the Imf. They can use the foward contracts or futures options on the template to boost thier reserves position. We also know that Electonic Stabilization fund has been used stabilize the currency crisis in Mexico for oil payments an even Brazil has received some benefit from the ESF.

The Electronic stabilization fund also allows for alot of different types ways of intervention.
1. Purchase or sale of Foreign currency
2. Acquistion or use of special drawing rights.
3. Loans or Credit to other central banks such as the case with Mexico.
4.Wharehousing

The treasury seems to have more than enough money in the Esf to stablize Iraqs economy by helping defend its exchange rate.
http://www.treas.gov/offices/interna...ent_082006.pdf
Notice I said defend the exchange rate instead of backing it.

We have also learned that secratary of the United Staes has broad powers in being able to turn dollars into Sdrs.
By the way Sdrs are part of the International Monetary that allows the easier exchange rates between countries. Some Countries have thier currency pegged to the Sdr. I think I remember Jordan being one of them.

The "Secretary of Treasury" [Governor-IMF] issues an international letter of credit called a "Special Drawing Rights Certificate" to the Federal Reserve Banks "in such form and in such denomination as he may determine". The SDR is deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks which in turn credits the account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) with Federal Reserve Notes in an amount equal to the value of the SDR certificate. SDR's became the "collateral security for Federal Reserve Notes". The "Secretary of Treasury" [Governor-IMF] issues an international letter of credit called a "Special Drawing Rights Certificate" to the Federal Reserve Banks "in such form and in such denomination as he may determine". The SDR is deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks which in turn credits the account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) with Federal Reserve Notes in an amount equal to the value of the SDR certificate. SDR's became the "collateral security for Federal Reserve Notes..........................................

link The Truth About Money

We have also proved that it was this adminstrations objective to go go to war with Iraq prior to Bush taking office. Why would they go to such great lengths to go to war with Iraq unless it was about oil. If this is truly the case then the United States will back thier currency to have access to cheaper oil so we the Us will remain a super power and have a friendly mideast country to do business with that has the second largest reserve of oil in the world.

The International Community has also bought into the International Compact because it could possibly mean cheaper oil because Iraqs true potential as a Oil producing nation never has been tested and the the only thing that Goverments in the International Community care about is keeping thier own goverments running along nicely. They can only do this thru cheap oil.

I dont know when or what day but I smell money in the air.

Anybody else got any Ideas? And if you do, we have a thread for this. I will allow this post to stay. But make the responses in that thread. paynes1 has joined us here at Rolclub in that thread. Thanks-neno