Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Fundamental Analysis, August 23, 2011


Asian stocks rose on Tuesday after a moderate increase in major stock indexes in Europe and the United States on Monday on expectations that the SFR will announce additional incentives to support economic growth. However, the dynamics of the gold price, which has already exceeded the level of $ 1900 per troy ounce, confirms predominance of feeling pessimistic. September contracts rose today to its highest of all current - 1912.80 dollars. In the opinion of former President of the IMF, Johannes Witteveen, who headed the organization from 1973 to 1978, the crisis in global financial system has already exceeded the capacity of developed countries and requires creation of a new stability fund under the IMF . "The world financial system is threatened by a new crisis, which may have consequences more serious than the financial crisis of 2008," said Witteveen. While the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S., most have already exceeded their capacities, a new fund may use foreign exchange reserves of China, Japan, Middle East and, say, Germany.



The U.S. economy is not going through its best moment: macroeconomic indicators have generated much concern on investors, resulting in lower than previous estimates in many reports published in recent months. Such is the case of the labor market, with an unemployment rate above 9%, the housing market, where prices are declining, and an economy that is growing very slowly, with a GDP growth for the second quarter of such only 1.3% and a downward revision of first quarter growth to 0.4%. Finally, the manufacturing sector also showed a slowdown from the previous year.

Given this grim picture, and amid instability in financial markets, the Fed met Tuesday to define new monetary policies and interest rates. The meeting decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at the current minimum levels until mid-2013. Investors awaited the implementation of a new incentive compensation plan, for the moment not apply but were dropped for the medium term.

We believe that once again will conduct an expansionary monetary policy by buying back assets (QE3), which could be implemented on the end of this year or early next year in order to inject liquidity into the markets, seeking to stimulate economic activity as well financial markets.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 23, 2011






Yesterday EUR/USD was trading within a narrow price range during the whole day between the correction levels of 23.6 and 38.2%. Thus, if the situation develops by the correction scenario it will be possible to assume that the price is forming a wave structure of the wave b in this correction. Meanwhile, after finishing of this b the euro may continue the decline to the 43rd figure or to the correction level 76.4%. At the same time, considering a difficult situation on the markets the renewal of the increasing movement should not be excluded, possibly from the current euro prices.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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AUD/CHF Bullish Outlook, August 23, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)






AUD/CHF



The Australian dollar-franc Switzerland pair on back Price (PULL-BACK) Most striking of all financial assets. At the height of the wave downward the price of the pair reached the levels of 0.7143 and has since managed to return more than 1000 points!

The investment pattern shows the weekly chart of the pair supports the reversal and continuation of the upward sequence. In the long run, it is estimated that the pair can get to fluctuate back to their recent peak levels around 0.9850 and higher still. But before this significant progress, we hope to gather the most bottom price, to take a long position.


Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Fundamental Analysis, August 24, 2011


The banks are better capitalized today than in 2008 to address the crisis. Why remains the sector most beaten of all? There are moments of turbulence in international markets: the lower the credit rating of U.S. your new level "AA +" deepens the global economic slowdown.
On the other hand in Japan's economy minister, Noda, announced today that the government will go to the foreign reserves, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation State for making grants to exporters and foreign purchases.

The Japanese funding program, which lasts a year, aims to encourage "the private sector to exchange yen funds in foreign currencies, by supporting exports of small and medium businesses, securing energy resources and helping Japanese companies to buy foreign businesses. " The announcement came after Moody's downgraded the credit rating of the country at one point, Aa3 with a stable outlook. The strong yen hurts the economy and may aggravate the country's fiscal problems. Moody's said it is unlikely the agency will take action on a negative credit rating over the next 18 months.

The fundamental news to move the markets or act as a catalyst market is still in expectations about what you say on Friday the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, when he could at least make it clear that the U.S. central bank is ready to act (some speculate the announcement of QE3).

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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CAD/JPY Buy Above 77.01, August 24, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)






CAD/JPY

Since the start of casualties in the financial markets about four months ago, the loonie-yen pair Japanese lost about 1300 points! After all the way down from the peak recorded in the month of open around 89.50 and up to the minimum recorded 76.80 for fifteen days. It is a deep, aggressive bearish sequence that was stopped exactly the last level of support 77.01.
We recommend buying above the 77.01 level as it is an indication of a high potential for reversal and the start of an upward sequence. The objective of short-term price is around the level of 80.30 Canadian dollar Japanese yen.


Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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USD/CAD Triangle Pattern August 24, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





USD/CAD

The analysis of short-term dollar-CAD pair reflects possible points of take a position on the eve of the sequence can bearish turn out to be long and deep. This point represents the breaking down of the triangle pattern, a pattern that was developed recently in the context of the movement of stagnant par. The price targets for short terms are consistent with the 0.9630 support level

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for August 24, 2011





For the last 24 hours the wave situation concerning the USD/CHF pair has not changed much and the price has continued the horizontal motion under the level of the 79th pattern. Thus, the price is making a complex wave structure of a horizontal correction within the assumed 2dn wave (or b). It should be mentioned that despite a slightly extended process of this formation this horizontal correction may get a more complex form. At the same time the possibility of a decline renewal still exists.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - August 24, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse subwave С (colored magenta in the chart) that is part of wave B of longer term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-126.95-125.66.
Resistances:
- 127.93 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 retracement
- 129.34 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-127.31, and expansions off 127.31-126.15-126.95, 126.95-126.13-126.74.
Supports:
- 125.92 = OP
- 125.79 = OP
- 125.41 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 125.29 = .50 retracement
- 125.07 = XOP
- 124.81 = .618 ret
- 124.59 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (5-15 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - August 24, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within potential wave C (from 1.0600) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 1.0315. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0600, 1.0111-1.0600, and expansions off 1.1079-0.9928-1.0600.
Supports:
- 1.0398 = .618 retracement
- 1.0264 = .50 ret
- 1.0185 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315, 1.0315-1.049-1.0363, 1.0363-1.0521-1.0445.
Resistances:
- 1.0543 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0603 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0628 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0639 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (35-45 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for August 24, 2011

The GBP/CHF pair is demonstrating a sideways motion having tested the Fibo correction level of 38.2. Earlier on a 4-hour chart GBP/CHF formed a candlestick Long Shadows, which is signaling an upturn, and was confirmed thereafter.
This candlestick shows that the currency pair was showing a lowering movement for a few months after a failure to break through the resistance rate at 1.5686. Though near 1.1467 it will retrace which means that the bears have not fixated. Further on the bulls have started to strengthen.
Breaking through the resistance level at 1.2350 and of the Fibo correction level 23.6 confirms the viewpoint. This triggered a rise with the target to the resistance level near 1.3028, where the Fibo correction level 38.2 is positioned. Their breaking through has targeted the pair to 1.3700. the stop orders are recommended to be placed slightly below the support level at 1.2210 as its puncture will cause a downfall to 1.1467.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, August 25, 2011


The major stock exchanges in Europe, USA, and Asia generally posted gains, while the increase in gold came to an abrupt end Wednesday as investors took profits driving prices down around by 9%. Gold fell to 1.702. dollars, while Treasury bonds broke three days of low, investors value what Ben Bernanque, president of the Federal Reserve will do to support economic growth. However, there is Jede precoupación that the Fed may disappoint investors holding the commitment to step stimuli.


On the other hand, a reason why forex movements are calm, is that on Thursday, Friday and Saturday there is an event called "Jackson Hole Symposium" where governors (chairmen) of banks, finance ministers, experts gather to discuss market conditions, currency, debt crises, markets, etc.

Either way, will have to wait until next semanana, For traders and investors around the world can take any decision on the market on Monday.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for August 25, 2011






Yesterday USD/CHF was still within the borders of the horizontal corridor, marked by the maximum of August 17 (0.8010) and minimum of the 19th (0.7815). Thus, it can be assumed that till the price lives this corridor it will be too early to speak about the finishing of the expected 2nd wave (or b). At the same time as we mentioned the possibility of the uprising movement renewal (within the future 3rd wave or c) is vivid.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/JPY Bullish Outlook August 25 2011 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/JPY





The pound-yen pair showed a great weakening as the bearish wave was recorded on the financial markets over the past five months. The pair lost about 1,600 points after it collapsed so sharply from the recent peaks, about 140 Japanese yen, and even the low levels in operating the pair now, about 126 Japanese yen. After all this impressive string downward from a technical perspective now there is a fairly high chance of a possible settlement of a base on the eve of a new uptrend.




The pair is still operating at very low levels and is expected to continue the upward movement. It is worth recalling the objectives of price in the short to medium term and 129.00 - 127.50 respectively.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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AUD/NZD Buy Above 1,2510, August 25, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)





AUD/NZD

The technical picture of the pair shows the possibility of ending the downward trend and the continuation of the new uptrend. In the weekly chart of the pair crossed the line downtrend, increase the chances of a positive outlook on the pair.

The continacion of this trend is expected to push up towards the previous peak levels around 1.3150. It is anticipated that the way the pair could run into the nearest resistance level of 1.2830, which can serve as a key point for the partial exercise of the buying.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for GBP/JPY, August 25, 2011



4-hour timeframe




General view:
The analysis of Forex for August 25 shows that the pound-yen pair is in the sideways channel now between 126 and 126.89 and currently the formation of false signals from Ishimoku is possible. On the whole the flat continues for 7 days already. The lines of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen demonstrate the formation of Sell signal though I have already mentioned that now false signals can be formed, as the Ishimoku is a trend indicator. That is why before the beginning of the trend movement it is recommended to stay out of the market. The Chinkou Span is below the price chart which shows bearish sentiment of the market participants. The Bollinger Bands demonstrate sideways motion; the bands are not diverging and are directed sideways. MACD is declining which confirms the current lowering movement in the sideways channel.
Trading recommendations:



It is recommended to stay out of the market before the start of the trend movement. The Bollinger Bands will show the trend beginning by starting to diverge.

Besides the technical picture, it is important to consider the fundamental reports and time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 25, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within potential wave C (from 1.0600) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0533. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0600, 1.0111-1.0600, 1.0315-1.0533, and expansions off 1.1079-0.9928-1.0600, 1.0600-1.0315-1.0533, 1.0533-1.0448-1.0521.
Supports:
- 1.0424 = .50 ret
- 1.0398 = .618 ret
- 1.0383 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0357 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0298 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and .618 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315.
Resistances:
- 1.0639 = .618 ret
- 1.0730 = contracted objective point (COP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-60 pips above the current prices

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 25, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-127.31, and expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-126.15-126.95, 126.95-125.61-126.28.
Supports:
- 125.45 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.29 = .50 retracement
- 125.07 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 124.94 = objective point (OP)
- 124.81 = .618 ret
- 124.11 = XOP
- etc.
If the price reverses to the upnside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-127.31-125.61.
Resistances:
- 127.93 = .618 ret
- 128.11 = COP
- 129.65 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (10-20 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 26, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within potential wave C (from 1.0600) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0533. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0600, 1.0315-1.0533, and expansions off 1.1079-0.9928-1.0600, 1.0600-1.0315-1.0533.
Supports:
- 1.0398 = .618 retracement
- 1.0357 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0264 = .50 ret
- 1.0248 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0185 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315, 1.0315-1.0533-1.0418.
Resistances:
- 1.0553 = COP
- 1.0636-39 = confluence area of OP and .618 ret
- 1.0730 = COP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for August 26, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 125.61.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 123.27-127.31, and expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-125.61-126.51, 126.51-125.82-126.48.
Supports:
- 125.79 = objective point (OP)
- 125.46 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.36-29 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .50 retracement
- 124.81 = confluence area of OP and .618 ret
- 124.67 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- etc.
If the price reverses to the upnside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-123.27, and expansions off 123.27-127.31-125.61.
Resistances:
- 127.31 = 0% ret
- 127.93 = .618 ret
- 128.11 = COP
- 129.65 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com