Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/USD candlestick analysis for October 12, 2011

The GBP/USD currency pair is demonstrating a rebound after it could not fixate above the support level 1.5565. Nevertheless the viewpoint at the pair remains bearish.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD pair formed a Falling Three Methods combination that gives us a bearish signal.
This combination was formed amid a downside movement after the pair could not break the resistance level near 1.6600, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence. At the same time each rollback was considered as a pause before further decline.
Break of the support level 1.5565 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect a downfall to the support level 1.5344. Its break will cause downside movement to 1.5290.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.5932 level as its break will allow the pair to reach 1.6200. 
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, October 12, 2011 European leaders have postponed a summit on the debt crisis through Sunday, October 23, after Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Union, requested more time to find a package that includes solutions for Greece, aid to banks and greater strength of the bailout funds. Amid these developments risk appetite remains strong, as the flow of news from the EU and IMF officials suggested that Greece should get your sixth tranche in early November. The next installment of € 8 billion will provide capital to Greece through the year, although the troika recognizes that Greece does not meet the deficit reduction targets for 2011. The suggestion that there will be a short term solution to the problems of Greece has given a clear boost to forex risk operations, but the actions are struggling despite the strong performance last week. Another good news for Europe is queel President Barroso of the European Commission is expected to announce a proposed recapitalization of banks. A movement that now, without doubt, stop the speculation of contagion. The main focus of the day will be the publication of the minutes of FOMC meetings. We believe that the record will be in line with the bearish tone of declaracionesposteriores. The markets will be looking for information on the monetary policy of liberation through "operation twist" (change of operation) and the surprise decision to reinvest maturing assets in MBS. A strategy aimed at providing direct support to mortgage borrowers, U.S. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, October 12, 2011



European leaders have postponed a summit on the debt crisis through Sunday, October 23, after Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Union, requested more time to find a package that includes solutions for Greece, aid to banks and greater strength of the bailout funds.

Amid these developments risk appetite remains strong, as the flow of news from the EU and IMF officials suggested that Greece should get your sixth tranche in early November. The next installment of € 8 billion will provide capital to Greece through the year, although the troika recognizes that Greece does not meet the deficit reduction targets for 2011. The suggestion that there will be a short term solution to the problems of Greece has given a clear boost to forex risk operations, but the actions are struggling despite the strong performance last week. Another good news for Europe is queel President Barroso of the European Commission is expected to announce a proposed recapitalization of banks. A movement that now, without doubt, stop the speculation of contagion.

The main focus of the day will be the publication of the minutes of FOMC meetings. We believe that the record will be in line with the bearish tone of declaracionesposteriores. The markets will be looking for information on the monetary policy of liberation through "operation twist" (change of operation) and the surprise decision to reinvest maturing assets in MBS. A strategy aimed at providing direct support to mortgage borrowers, U.S.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 13, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 0.9865. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.987-1.0014, and expansions off 0.9387-1.0014-0.9865, 0.9865-1.0205-1.0126.
Resistances:
- 1.0240-52 = confluence area of .618 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0336 = COP
- 1.0466 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0492 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9865 - this wave is not developed, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (5-10 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 13, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 119.16. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-116.78 and expansions off 116.78-120.78-116.91, 116.91-120.23-119.16.
Resistances:
- 122.48 = objective point (OP)
- 123.38 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.80 = .50 retracement
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 116.91-122.30, and 119.16-122.30.
Supports:
- 121.10 = .382 ret
- 120.77 = .50 ret
- 120.36 = .618 ret
- 120.24 = .382 ret
- 119.60 = .50 ret
- 118.97 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (5-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD candlestick analysis (long-term view)

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading up this week. Nevertheless, the viewpoint remains bearish.
Earlier in a weekly graph the EUR/USD formed Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This combination shows that the pair dropped sharply after an attempt to advance to the resistance level 1.4700, which means that the bears started to increase their influence.
Further decline is supported by the RSI indicator demonstrating a rollback from the overbought level 70.0.
Break of the support level 1.3969 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect a decline to the support level 1.3427 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located. Its break targeted the pair to 1.2869.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 1.3969 as its break will target the pair to 1.4700.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, October 13, 2011



The appetite for risk in general remains the dominant theme, as European policy makers seem to be approaching a solution. Because in Europe, come recapitalization plans and a roadmap to end the crisis - at last, after 4 years!

The market has followed a bullish tone that borders surprising in a scenario that tilts the negative side, close to a recession in developed countries and a slowdown by emerging, however, the mere fact that the Fed could launch a QE3 has weakened the dollar, has produced a shift of capital flows to risky assets such as equities, and precipitates a short closing pessimistic managers as well as a minimum, however, coverage of equity funds, meaning that the margin can have on cash-managers at record levels for many months, some have to use it to take positions when the stock react to the upside, being in many cases these movements larger than normal due to excess liquidity and prevailing lack of confidence, however, the majority of funding has not risen as much as the bags these days, which is a sign that professionals did not participate in the same all its fullness, wary of the supposed improvement of market scenario.

On the other hand, the pair Euro - Dollar rose to its highest level in 3 weeks ($ 1.3830) after Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, president of the European Commission said it would present a "roadmap for stability" to the Parliament detailing a "complete" set of proposals to resolve the debt crisis. The rise in stocks and the euro was tempered by the political problems of Slovakia, which have delayed the approval by the national government to improve financial aid funds from the European Union. In contrast, European equities were driven upwards, thanks to the unexpected increase in industrial production in the euro area in August, up 1.2% monthly and 5.3% annually, with a predicted fall 0 , 8% per month and up by 2.1% annually.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Buy up to 1.4000 , October 13, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)






EUR/USD

The weekly chart analysis of the pair, reflecting the high levels of resistance of euro-dollar pair on their way upstream. The first objective of short-term price is around 1.4000, but if it manages to overcome the resistance level and breaks the upstream channel, the pair is expected to more easily continue towards its goal of mid-price run around the 1.4500 and 1.4700 resistance level. Now, if the pair higher than the threshold test of 1.4050 will result in a technical confirmation regarding continuation of the upward movement weekly, towards the goal of medium term price to around 1.4700 U.S. dollars per euro.

On the other hand if the pair fails to close its weekly quote at the end of October is trading below 1.4000 is expected to again go back to the 1.3400 support level. At this point we will take another decision according to current events.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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AUD/USD Technical Correction , October 13, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD

Exactly as crashed so blunt when the financial markets experienced low, so the aussie-dollar picks up now that the financial markets recorded gains. It is known that the pair has a high volatility in relation to markets and their correlation is very high. The pair Australian dollar - U.S. dollar has regained its upward momentum, rising from 1.0117 to 1.0233 in the negotiation of the day yesterday after reports of a rise in employment. currently trading at 1.0146 this.
Technically, it is estimated that the pair will continue their current upward movement but has to overcome the important 1.0250 resistance level. for now
note that the pair is overbought and a correction is necessary at least to the level of the trendline that began on October 4 raisins. If the pair breaks the trend line in the short term we see a fall to the level of weekly pivot point around 0.9670


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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USD/CHF wave analysis for October 13, 2011





During yesterday’s trading the USD/CHF pair resumed downside movement and approached the 89 figure level by the end of the day. Therefore the whole current downside section of the trend obtained the shape of a five-wave structure. If so, we might suppose that at the moment its estimated 5th wave in the 3rd is being completed. At the same time, the target level for this 3rd might be located at the 39 figure level or slightly higher.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - October 14, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are two subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 122.30. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 116.91-122.30.
Supports:
- 120.24 = .382 retracement
- 119.60 = .50 ret
- 118.97 = .618 ret
If the price resumes the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.81-116.78 and expansions off 116.78-120.78-116.91, 116.91-122.30-120.27.
Resistances:
- 123.38 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.60 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.80 = .50 retracement

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (5-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - October 14, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term uptrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 0.9865. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.987-1.0014, and expansions off 0.9387-1.0014-0.9865, 0.9865-1.0231-1.0101.
Resistances:
- 1.0240-52 = confluence area of .618 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0327 = COP
- 1.0467 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0492 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9865-1.0231, 0.9387-1.0231.
Supports:
- 1.0091 = .382 ret
- 1.0048 = .50 ret
- 1.0005 = .618 ret
- 0.9909 = .382 ret
- 0.9809 = .50 ret
- 0.9709 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, October 14, 2011 Yesterday European stocks also experienced a fall, as investors are concerned about rumors that the Greek bondholders may suffer more significant losses than expected, which poses a risk to financial stability in the eurozone, said representatives of the Bank European Central. For example, German banks are bracing for losses of up to 60% of Greek bonds, told Bloomberg news agency, without reference to the source of information. However, the euro was trading in a narrow range against the dollar yesterday, closing at 1.3771, and has now been able to grow during the Asian trading session to 1.3800 level. On the other hand, risk appetite is still strong support after the adoption of EFSF in Slovakia, during the second vote in Parliament. In addition, there are comments from China suggest that emerging markets would be ready to increase aid through loans to Europe, through funding from the IMF. Although no details and no official confirmation, the dream that China appears with its huge reserves and save the day, is very rapid. Be cautious, as they take loans from external sources to resolve a domestic debt crisis is not an appropriate solution. However, the nations of the European Monetary Union (EMU) may have doubts about using IMF resources in an area where income levels are often much higher than in the countries of the monetary union. We have also seen that the sovereign accounts have reduced their purchases of euros, because of concern for risk. In a few minutes to publish data on retail sales and consumer confidence (preliminary) of the University of Michigan / Reuters at 8:30 and 9:55 Eastern, respectively. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== ========================== ========= ================================================== ========================== ========= GOLD Technical Triangle, October 14, 2011 (Daily Strategy) GOLD Trading has become a kind of slide, which has resulted in the prices every day in the yellow metal market are confusing and unpredictable. This means that, currently, in the stock market value Comex December gold operates downward U.S. $ 9.40 to close at U.S. $ 1673.20 an ounce. On a technical level, we can see that gold has formed a technical figure of a triangle. which indicates two posibildades, a weekly close above 1700 an ounce. could indicate a move to the next week until the resistance level of 1850, on the other hand a close below 1680. the yellow metal could go back to the 200 day EMA, and even more to the monthly support level of 1460 dollars an ounce of gold. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== ========================== ========= ================================================== ========================== ========= USD/CHF wave analysis for October 14, 2011 During yesterday’s trading the USD/CHF currency pair could not continue the downside trading thus coming into a horizontal correction state. At the same time it seems that regardless the further development of the wave situation the price might resume declining at least to the 87 figure level (38.2% of the current correction). In the meantime the estimated 2nd wave (or b) at the moment looks a little simplified thus allowing it to be formed further, either in price or in timely respect. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com