Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 24, 2011

GBP/JPY is still moving within corrective wave 4 of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. This wave has A and B subwaves (colored magenta) and the latter has A, B and C waves of still smaller degree - colored red in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 137.03-130.26, and expansions off 130.26-133.16-130.74, 130.74-132.96-131.25.
Resistances:
- 132.62 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 133.47 = objective point (OP)
- 133.64 = confluence area of OP and .50 retracement
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03, 137.03-130.26-133.16, 133.16-130.74-132.96, 132.96-131.25-132.26.
Supports:
- 131.20 = COP
- 130.55-54 = confluence area of two OP's
- 130.00 = OP
- 129.49 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 129.16 = .618 ret
- 129.04 = XOP
- 128.98 = COP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down but a corrective wave up is developing it's preferable to stand aside or try longs when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 24, 2011

AUD/USD is developing subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) within wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. Now we have a corrective wave within the former subwave - and that is B (colored orange red in the chart).
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0710-1.0478.
Resistances:
- 1.0576 = .382 retracement
- 1.0594 = .50 ret
- 1.0621 = .618 ret
If the price breaks below 1.0478 and the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0504-1.0710, and expansions off 1.1011-1.0536-1.0888, 1.0888-1.0504-1.0710.
Supports:
- 1.0473 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0413 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0360 = .50 ret
- 1.0326 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (current prices as well).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD technical analysis for May 24, 2011

The GBP/USD currency pair has successfully broken the support level at 1.6164, to decline further. Nevertheless, the viewpoint at the pair is still bearish.
Earlier in a daily graph the GBP/USD formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating a bearish signal.
This candlestick was formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6750, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect downside movement with a target at 1.6164. Its break will allow it to reach the support level 1.5932, where the Fibonacci 61.8 correction level is also located. At the same time, break of the 1.6300 level will probably cause a slight consolidation.
It is worth mentioning that stop orders should be placed slightly above the 1.6430 level as a break of this resistance will target the pair to 1.6517.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GOLD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 24-27, 2011



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1572,23
Weekly - R2 = 1544,16
Weekly - R1 = 1528,33
Weekly Pivot = 1500,26
Weekly - S1 = 1484,43
Weekly - S2 = 1456,36
Weekly - S3 = 1440,53



_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1774,00
Monthly - R2 = 1671,80
Monthly - R1 = 11617,30
Monthly Pivot = 1515,10
Monthly - S1 = 1460,60
Monthly - S2 = 1358,40
Monthly - S3 = 1303,90



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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USD/CHF wave analysis for May 24, 2011






During yesterday’s trading the USD/CHF could not develop the Friday’s downside movement and

resumed growth against the US dollar along with several other currencies. At the same time,

at some stretch we can consider all this downside movement of the price since May 13 as a

correction structure of the estimated b wave which might be included in a more complicated

correction triangle. If so, the pair still can continue growing in the direction of the 89

figure levels.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/USD wave analysis for May 24, 2011





Following the euro, during yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD resumed the downside movement

and passed the 61 figure level by the end of the day. At the same time, current wave

situation allows further decline of the price in the direction of the 1.6000 level. As a

result od such dynamic decline, the wave situation formed May 13-20 looks like a

complicated inner wave structure of the B wave of the whole downtrend developing since

early May.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for May 24, 2011



4-hour timeframe



Overview:
The euro is still observing the sell signal without a target level, formed yesterday, the

MACD is also demonstrating a slight correction. The formed sell signal is strong and

confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the

Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.4021 –

the first support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second

support level at 1.3885. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen

(1.4160), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions.

The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and

indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show downside movement, the lines are

diverging and directed down. The MACD is ascending, thus indicating current correction

movement, if it reverses down this will denote the end of the correction movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1.4021 and further to 1.3885. Stop

Loss should be placed above 1.4160 and stretched as the Kijun-sen declines. Short positions

should only be opened after the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the

time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
 The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.







Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 25, 2011

GBP/JPY is still moving within corrective wave 4 of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. This wave has A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta) and the latter is also comprised of A, B and C subwaves of still smaller degree - colored red in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 137.03-130.26, and expansions off 130.26-133.16-130.74, 130.74-132.96-131.25, 131.25-132.26-131.41.
Resistances:
- 133.47 = objective point (OP)
- 133.64 = confluence area of OP and .50 retracement
- 134.44 = .618 ret
- 134.84 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.74-133.11.
Supports:
- 132.20 = .382 ret
- 131.93 = .50 ret
- 131.65 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down but a corrective wave up is developing it's preferable to stand aside or try longs when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 25, 2011

AUD/USD is developing subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) within wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. Now we have a potential impulse subwave C within the former subwave - colored red in the chart.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0504-1.0710, and expansions off 1.1011-1.0536-1.0888, 1.0888-1.0504-1.0710, 1.0710-1.0478-1.0582.
Supports:
- 1.0473 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0439 = COP
- 1.0413 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0360 = .50 ret
- 1.0350 = OP
- 1.0326 = OP
If the price stays above 1.0478 and keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0710-1.0478.
Ressitances:
- 1.0594 = .50 retracement
- 1.0621 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (35-40 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (60-70 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD technical analysis for May 25, 2011

The GBP/USD currency pair has rebounded off the Fibonacci correction level 50.0. Earlier the GBP/USD has successfully broken the support level at 1.6164. Nevertheless, the viewpoint at the pair is still bearish.
Earlier in a daily graph the GBP/USD formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating a bearish signal.
This candlestick was formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6750, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect downside movement with a target at 1.6164. Its break will allow it to reach the support level 1.5932, where the Fibonacci 61.8 correction level is also located. At the same time, break of the 1.6300 level will probably cause a slight consolidation.
It is worth mentioning that stop orders should be placed slightly above the 1.6430 level as a break of this resistance will target the pair to 1.6517.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD technical analysis for May 25, 2011

Support levels: 0.9640, 0.9513, 0.9440
Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9972, 1.0050

In a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD took a pause after a strong growth and is probably forming the figure “Flag”. Its break will target the pair to the resistance level 0.9840.
The USD/CAD has been trading in an upside channel after reaching a multi-year high at 0.9445.
As mentioned before, in case the resistance near 0.9721 is broken we should expect upside movement to 0.9972. Further break of 1.0380 will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that in a 4-hour graph a reverse figure “Reversed Head and Shoulders” was formed. Break of the neck line proved this point of view and targeted the pair to 1.0050. On the other hand, break of the support level 0.9513 will denote false formation of this figure.
If a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9445 support level, further advance to 0.9400 should be expected. Besides, we can expect a decline to 0.9353, which is 100.0 Fibonacci projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 up to 0.9972.
In the medium term the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9400 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
The viewpoint at the pair is bearish until the resistance at 0.9972 is broken.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for May 25, 2011

The EUR/GBP currency pair is rolling back after it could not break the 0.8650 support level again.
Earlier in a daily graph the EUR/GBP formed a Long Shadows candlestick indicating further downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick shows that earlier the EUR/GBP pair made a strong upside movement after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 0.8300. However, it reversed near the 0.9000 level. This means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
The divergence on the RSI and the MACD supports the downside movement.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned earlier, if the Fibonacci 38.2 correction level is successfully tested, we should expect downside movement with a target at 0.8650 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located. Its break will target the pair to the next support level 0.8350.
It is worth mentioning that stop orders should be placed slightly above the resistance level 0.8840 as its break will target the pair to 0.9050.
In the medium term, the rollback from 0.8067 is completed with 3 waves at 0.9041. Current correction means the decline from the 0.9799 (2008 high) is continuing with a target to refresh lows below 0.8067. Break of the support level 0.8650 will prove this point of view and lead to downside movement to 0.8284. Its break will target the pair to 0.8067.
Nevertheless, break of the resistance level 0.9050 will denote that the short-term correction from 0.9799 is completed with 3 waves at 0.8067. In this case, the long-term downtrend initiated in 2000 will be probably continued to refresh highs above 0.9799.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD wave analysis for May 25, 2011






In general, as expected, the EUR/USD currency pair started to move upwards slowly after it

failed to break the 40 figure level. At the same time, given the correction scenario of the

wave situation after May 16, current growth of the euro price is limited by the c wave (in

the B). If so, the indicated upside movement might develop in the direction of the 1.4200

level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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AUD/USD Strong Support 1,0418 May 25, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD

A look on graph of the Australian dollar – United States dollar pair, is directed to its

second weekly support around 1.0418, this strong support will return the pair to 1.0620

levels.

A decrease to that level would create a buy opportunity, who would return to the weekly

pivot around the level of 1.0624 United States dollars for one Australian dollar.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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USD/JPY wave analysis for May 25, 2011





The USD/JPY pair is slowly trying to continue the upside movement developing since early

May. At the same time, the new section of the pair’s upside movement has probably indicated

the beginning of the wave, or the 3rd. If so, the targets for this might be located in a

quite wide range between the levels 82.50 and 84.00.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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