Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/USD candlestick analysis for March 29, 2011

As expected, the GBP/USD decline was limited by the support level near 1.5960.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has formed a Three Black Crows candlestick combination, which indicates downside movement.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6400, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the support level 1.5960 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.6400 level. Since a break of this level will target the pair to 1.6450.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook March 29, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD

The British Pound - United States dollar pair takes five days on a downward trend from

their peak at 1.6400, now showing signs of stagnation or consolidation, if the pair touch

the weekly support line around 1.5890, would be a good opportunity to enter long with a

goal around 1.6300, a daily close above 1.5990, it would be a good start of a new upward

wave,


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EUR/USD Bullish Outlook, March 29, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/USD
The Euro – United States dollar pair need a support or a leg around 1.3930 levels, we thus

believe that the pair continued their downward sequence to this level.

The euro has to go a bit higher, perhaps to levels of 1.4500 or more,
for it would be a good opportunity to buy at a cheap price at 1.3930 with a target output

in the short term 1.4320 and long-term 1.4540



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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USD/CHF wave analysis for March 29, 2011






As expected, the USD/CHF price started to move away from the correction level 61.8%. At the

same time, at the moment we cannot be sure that indicated downside movement can develop

into a new continuous sector of the downtrend. Current wave situation allows a possibility

of the upside movement to be resumed and the 5-wave structure to be formed on the local

uptrend section after March 23.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
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USD/JPY wave analysis for March 29, 2011






After Friday’s growth of the USD/JPY by a few figures, yesterday’s trading was located in a

quite narrow price range near the 81.60 – 81.70 level. As a result, the yen price is still

moving in the range of the estimated 2nd wave, in the 5th (in the 3rd), of the whole

uptrend section initiated March 11. At the same time, overbought Stochastic allows the

resumption of downside movement.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 30, 2011

The GBP/JPY is moving on within potential wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. To confirm this wave break above 133.04 is needed. The targets above the current price are Fibonacci expansions off 122.49-133.04-130.18.
Resistances:
- 133.04 = previous peak (100%)
- 134.21 = super contracted objective point (SCOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 130.18 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term is now up it's preferable to look for longs when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (25-35 pips below the current price), or into the oversold area (45-55 pips below the current price).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Oil review for 30/03/2011

On Tuesday oil futures grew amid doubts over resumption of oil export from Libya and stock market uprise.
On Tuesday oil futures showed growth as doubts about Libyan oil export have been increasing and stock market has been up. By the end of NYMEX trades the quotations of April futures on low-sulfur oil rose by 81 cent (0.8%) up to USD 104,79 per barrel. At the same time ICE trades resulted in Brent oil prices growing by 46 cent (0.4%) up to USD 115,26 per barrel.
Crude oil prices have been rising amid uncertainties over how soon Libyan oil will be back on the market. According to Libyan rebels, the country may well start exporting oil within a week.
However, there are persistent doubts about such fast returning of Libyan oil to the market, particularly with the situation in other parts of the region remaining quite unstable. Almost all Libyan export of nearly 1.3 mln. barrels a day ceased due to the national conflict and the sanctions imposed on it by the West.
Crude oil prices have been soaring since the beginning of the Libyan conflict which broke up in mid-February to reach its high USD 106.95 per barrel in the beginning of March. Earlier on Tuesday the very prospect of Libyan oil to be back on the market pushed the prices down.
Yet, some market watchers suppose that the prices have reached their high and now they expect them to decline, especially in case Libyan oil export is resumed. Additionally, oil prices were supported by hiking American stocks which contributed much to hopes for higher US demand for oil.
On Wednesday the Ministry of Energy is to publish its weekly data on the oil reserves and petroleum products of the USA.
Analysts expect oil reserves to increase by 1.5 mln. barrels, reducing thus gas reserves by 1.7 mln. barrels and distillate reserves, including residual oil and diesel fuel, by 400 000 barrels.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for March 30, 2011

At the moment the GBP/USD is testing the support level near 1.5960.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has formed a Three Black Crows candlestick combination, which indicates downside movement.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6400, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the support level 1.5960 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.6400 level. Since a break of this level will target the pair to 1.6450.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD candlestick analysis for March 30, 2011

EUR/USD keeps on being traded in an uptrend. This currency pair is still capable of testing 1.4278 resistance level in the closest time. Earlier on the intraday chart EUR/USD shaped a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination which is an explicit signal to growth.
Such a candlestick combination points to the growth of the pair continuing for several weeks. However, there was a rollback registered at 1.4035 level which was a good opportunity to start buying.
Further upside movement is supported by the fact that the uptrend remains.
Break of the resistance level 1.4035 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the resistance level 1.4278.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss orders should be placed slightly below 1.3850 as a break of this level will denote that the uptrend is broken.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/AUD Bullish Outlook, March 30, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/AUD

After a wave of downwards movement for more than nine days, the British pound - Australian dollar pair takes a brief rest, apparently in order to gather strength before the beginning of a new change in trend or potential technical rebound. The second line of the monthly support served as a barrier to the sharp decline that came to the 1.5480 level.

Logout above this line, in the 1.5480 will confirm that it is not nothing but support the reversal and the beginning of a new upward sequence.It is estimated that upward sequence pushed the pair to the 1.5980 resistance level in the short term.




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook March 30, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





CRUDE OIL

Crude oil futures for April have locked yesterday at a price of 104.50 United States dollars for one barrel of oil, We noted that duringthe week of trade, oil approached the level of 107 United States dollars for one barrel of oil, before retreating back down.

Therefore we believe that crude oil has to raise its price a little more, perhaps even levels of 108 00 dollars a barrel of crude, then from there would take a short break or fall to levels of 98 dollars a barrel.







Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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USD/CHF wave analysis for March 30, 2011






During yesterday’s trading the USD/CHF currency pair started to move away from the 0.9140 level. Thus, as we mentioned yesterday, the pair is forming a 5-wave structure in the range of the upside correction developed since March 23. Given this, we can suppose that at the moment the price is in the range of the future a wave of a more continuous correction structure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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GBP/USD wave analysis for March 30, 2011






Given the situation formed by the end of the GBP/USD trading, we can see some uncertainty in further development of the wave situation. This uncertainty is explained by the fact that the price can both continue declining, thus forming a more complex structure of the c wave, in the e, and make a reversal, thus indicating a new section of the uptrend.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for March 30, 2011



Overview:



The euro is still observing the downside movement and a sell signal, the price is still inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which does not allow us to trade either up or down. The formed sell signal is weak and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is inside the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the downside movement is 1.3932 – the second support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the third support level at 1.3814. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.4120), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show downside movement, the lines are slightly narrowing and directed down. The MACD is descending, thus indicating current downside movement, if it reverses up this will denote the beginning of a correction movement.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the sell signal strengthens (the price fixates below the Ichimoku Cloud) and trade down with target at 1.3932 and further to 1.3814. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.4120. If the MACD reverses up, it is recommended to cut short positions.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.



The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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USD/SEK candlestick analysis for March 31, 2011

The USD/SEK currency pair is demonstrating downside movement after it failed to break the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/SEK formed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination that indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This combination formed after the pair failed to break the 6.2383 level, which means that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the 6.5019 level, where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located.
However, it is worth mentioning that if the 6.2794 support level is broken, long positions should be closed as this will cause a decline to the 6.2383 level.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD candlestick analysis for March 31, 2011

The NZD/USD currency pair is rolling back after it failed to reach the 0.7660 resistance level.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the Fibonacci correction level 50.0, where the resistance level 0.7660 is also located.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7492, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7330. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD candlestick analysis for March 31, 2011

In a daily graph the GBP/USD is bouncing off after it failed to break the support level near 1.5960.
Earlier on a daily graph the GBP/USD has formed a Three Black Crows candlestick combination, which indicates downside movement.
This candlestick combination has formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6400, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the support level 1.5960 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.5750, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.6400 level. Since a break of this level will target the pair to 1.6450.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com