Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 24, 2011

AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0477-1.0649, which turned out to be corrective wave B of medium term downtrend, and now wave C is developing - colored light green in the chart. This wave has been confirmed, the price broke below 1.0477 (top of wave A). Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9707-1.1011, and expansions off 1.0774-1.0477-1.0649.
Supports:
- 1.0466 = contracted objective point (COP), (already hit!)
- 1.0359 = .50 ret
- 1.0352 = objective point (OP)
If the price keeps pulling back to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0649-1.0454.
Resistances:
- 1.0552 = .50 ret
- 1.0575 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices, which roughly corresponds to 1.0552 Fib resistance).

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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for June 24, 2011

Earlier in a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has formed Morning Doji Star candlestick combination indicating bullish signal.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair failed to break the support level 1.5932 which means that the bears could not solidify here. Further the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound to the upside took place.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will denote that this point of view is correct. In this case we should expect growth to the resistance level 1.6262 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located. If the pair fixates above 1.6262, this will target it to 1.6472.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly below 1.5932 as a break of this support level will allow the pair to reach 1.5750.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Corn review for June 24, 2011

Futures on corn mixed on Thursday having earlier hit 6-week highs amid growing US dollar and falling oil prices
Futures on corn mixed on Thursday having earlier hit 6-week highs amid growing US dollar and falling oil prices.
By the end of CBOT trades corn futures increased by 3 cent to constitute USD 6.8 ½ per bushel, whole December contract fall by 4 ½ cent to equal USD 6.68 per bushel. Concerns over strengthening American currency will cause lower demand for goods including grain put pressure upon the market on Thursday. The growth of the US dollar makes futures expensive for holders of other currencies.
On June 23, the US Agriculture Department informed that export demand for corn dropped by 41% and equaled 531 000 tons as compared to the last week.
Declining quotations of oil futures also led to bearish sentiment as ethanol is made from corn.
Sales restored on Thursday after earlier on Wednesday futures on corn dropped by 30 cent which is a day limit set by the burse amid voluminous sales by market participants. Further liquidating long positions can bring about even lower prices. At present futures decreased by 17% from all-time high of USD 8 per bushel hit earlier this month. On Thursday the day limit for corn futures was boosted to 45 cent per bushel.
Closing long positions by large funds shadowed fundamental factors possible to support the market later. In the USA grains have been remaining at the levels of their 15-year lows while global demand for corn is rather strong.
On the other hand, meteorological agencies forecast dry and warm weather next week which can have positive effects for harvests.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, June 24, 2011




Greece will now focus again on the 2nd and final meeting of the European Council. The

context is complicated by the refusal of the Greek opposition to the package of austerity

measures, which could prevent the next disbursement of assistance (€ 12bn). Also the 2 nd

package of assistance (120bn€ ?) Is in the air, which includes participation of banks and

insurance companies in a restructuring process "voluntary" debt helena. For their part,

unions unhappy Greeks have called a strike on 29/30 June, the same dates that the program

of measures will be voted on in Parliament. This only complicates the situation in a few

days crucial for the future of Greece. If the country fails Hellenic national consensus to

approve the cuts, go into default by not being able to meet the payment of € 7.000m debt

and interest that will expire in mid-July.

Today in the United States published the weekly Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales, but

do not anticipate outstanding results. If the results meet expectations, surely arouse the

interest of several investors, as they are concerned about the fate of European debt crisis

and in fact, if the major economies of Europe, that is the engine for the continent

continue to see blood, could increase the malaise.

Moreover, while the gold remains strong thanks to trade around the safe havens, other

physical resources showed some degree of tension across the commodities market. Meanwhile,

oil has been trading with extreme caution for quite some time and now operators can find

opportunities if they perceive a reduction in global demand. For the next two days is

expected a high degree of volatility in the stock market worldwide.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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GBP/JPY Bullish Above 128,50 June 24, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/JPY

The wave of drops across the markets brought the United Kingdom pound – Japanese yen pair

all the way to its lowest and critical support levels in the region of 128.50. The

assessment is that so long as the pair is traded above the critical level of 128.50, it is

worth a buy position with views towards price rises to the high levels of 135,00 and

140.00.

In the event of a daily closure above the support level of 128.50, this will constitute an

indication for a change in direction and the start of a move in the opposite direction

upwards and towards the resistance level of 133,40.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 27, 2011

GBP/JPY is moving within wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. And within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing from 130.51 - colored magenta in the chart. Within this subwave there are A, B and C waves of still smaller degree. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.90-130.51, and 130.51-128.45-129.03.
Supports:
- 127.76 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 127.11 = objective point (OP)
- 126.97-93 = conflence area of two objective points (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.51-128.19.
Resistances:
- 129.08 = .382 retracement
- 129.53 = .50 ret
- 129.62 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 27, 2011

AUD/USD is now developing wave C of long term downtrend from 1.0649 - colored light green in the chart. Within this wave there's wave C of smaller degree, developing from 1.0600 - colored red in the chart. Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9707-1.1011, and expansions off 1.0774-1.0477-1.0649, and 1.0649-1.0454-1.0600.
Supports:
- 1.0405 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0359 = .50 retracement
- 1.0352 = OP
- 1.0284 = expanded objectve point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0600 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-60 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/CAD candlestick analysis for June 27, 2011

The AUD/CAD has advanced sharply after it could not fixate below the 1.0230 level. However, the viewpoint at the pair remains bearish.
Earlier in a daily graph the AUD/CAD has formed an Evening Star candlestick combination indicating bearish signal, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level 1.0550, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level means that this point of view is correct. If the pair fixates below the support level 1.0189 will probably lead to downside movement to 0.9937 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
Downside movement is supported by the divergence on the RSI and the Stochastic.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.0550 level as its break will target the pair to 1.0600.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 26 - 30/ June, 2011



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0968
Weekly - R2 = 1.0841
Weekly - R1 = 1.0731
Weekly Pivot = 1.0604
Weekly - S1 = 1.0494
Weekly - S2 = 1.0367
Weekly - S3 = 1.0257




_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1545
Monthly - R2 = 1.1278
Monthly - R1 = 1.0973
Monthly Pivot = 1.0706
Monthly - S1 = 1.0401
Monthly - S2 = 1.0134
Monthly - S3 = 0.9829





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 26 - 30/ June, 2011



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4693
Weekly - R2 = 1.4567
Weekly - R1 = 1.4378
Weekly Pivot = 1.4252
Weekly - S1 = 1.4063
Weekly - S2 = 1.3937
Weekly - S3 = 1.3748




____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5876
Monthly - R2 = 1.5409
Monthly - R1 = 1.4902
Monthly Pivot = 1.4435
Monthly - S1 = 1.3928
Monthly - S2 = 1.3461
Monthly - S3 = 1.2954





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 26-30, 2011


_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 81,77
Weekly - R2 = 81,41
Weekly - R1 = 80,72
Weekly Pivot = 80,36
Weekly - S1 = 79,67
Weekly - S2 = 79,31
Weekly - S3 = 78,62






_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 85,30
Monthly - R2 = 83,77
Monthly - R1 = 82,64
Monthly Pivot = 81,11
Monthly - S1 = 79,98
Monthly - S2 = 78,45
Monthly - S3 = 77.32




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at

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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 26- 30/ June, 2011


_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6492
Weekly - R2 = 1.6377
Weekly - R1 = 1.6167
Weekly Pivot = 1.6052
Weekly - S1 = 1.5842
Weekly - S2 = 1.5727
Weekly - S3 = 1.5517






_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7450
Monthly - R2 = 1.7094
Monthly - R1 = 1.6770
Monthly Pivot = 1.6414
Monthly - S1 = 1.6090
Monthly - S2 = 1.5734
Monthly - S3 = 1.5410




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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Fundamental Analysis, June 28, 2011




The markets are under severe pressure from three fronts, having been significantly

complicated. The first one: (1) hypothetical situation in Greece and contagion to other

states, already assisted (Ireland, Portugal) or not (Spain, Italy ...) (2) The need for an

agreement to raise the debt ceiling in the U.S. before August, (3) Governance of the

states, because the social response might prevent steps to redress the economy.



We could summarize by saying that since last Monday the first key factor has worsened,

there has been no news of the second (and in this case no news should be interpreted as bad

news) and only the third appears to have stabilized but not improved. Additionally facing a

slowdown in global economic recovery, more tangible macro indicators, and inflationary

pressures, increasingly more concerned and will probably not be neutralized or climbing

types (as it has its origin in the higher commodity premiums for the emerging demand),

market or putting into strategic oil reserves (such as the AIE decided to do last week). It

may seem overly pessimistic approach, but almost as disturbing as this kind of cocktail of

obstacles is the failure to identify a positive factor of some importance, if only

hypothetically deliverables, which counteracts the above. In such a context, the hope that

"the situation will be renewed" is as certain as largoplacista, while prices are or are not

"attractive" depending on the violence of the outcomes of the issues now open.


Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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EUR/CHF Bullish Outlook, June 28, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/CHF

On the Technical level, the Euro - Swiss Franc pair, after having tested the level 1.1800,

is on the verge of a meaningful signal for the beginning of a new upwards movement . It is

possible to enter a small position at the present price levels and to increase it in case

the pair breaks its resistance and tests the level at 1.1925. In such an event there will

be a much better chance for the pair to continue to push forward towards the resistance

level at 1.2047 and then on to the resistance level of 1.2400 that will be used as a medium

term price target.









Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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USD/CHF wave analysis for June 28, 2011








The USD/CHF currency pair is still attempting to test the 83 figure level. At the same time

the inner wave structure of the 5th wave, in the 5th, is becoming more complicated, which

in its turn can lead to a dynamic decline of the price to the 0.8230 level. In the meantime

the current MACD divergence supports further cumulated reverse of the market and a switch

of the franc price into a continuous upside correction.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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CRUDE OIL Bullish Above 92.50 June 28, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






CRUDE OIL

In the four-hour chart, we can see the price of a barrel of oil has rebounded from its

lowest level in 89.90, is now trading above fractal formed around 90.45, however, the price

per barrel of oil shows an attractive opportunity to buy long term.

Therefore a return to the level of 90.00 or a close above 92.50 will be the beginning of a

new upward wave. with a target to the resistance level of 98.20 dollars per barrel of oil.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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