Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

The euro and the pound slipped slightly against the US dollar





Versatile fundamental statistics from the euro area today has led to a small sale of the euro against the US dollar.


The data, which was released in the morning, showed that the German Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for June increased beyond the preliminary estimate.


According to the IHS Markit report, the German Final Services PMI index grew to 54.0 points against the expected 53.7 points. Meanwhile, the German Composite PMI was at 56.4 points and has been adjusted in respect to the preliminary estimate of 56.1 points. IHS Markit expects that this year, Germany's GDP growth will be 2%.


Bad data on the euro area led to the sale of euro. Despite this, the projection for the eurozone's economic recovery is for it to accelerate in the second quarter of the year.


The IHS Markit report also added that the final composite PMI for the eurozone dropped to 56.3 points for the month of June from 56.8 points in May. Taking into account the preliminary data where the index was expected to decline to 55.7 points, it can be said that there is a slight slowdown in growth because of a time factor.


On the other hand, retail sales in the euro area rose. According to Eurostat. Retail sales in May grew by 0.4% from April's data, significantly exceeding the forecasts of economists. The data may lead to a more stable economic growth rate for the second quarter. Inflation will also be positively affected as expected by the European Central Bank recently.


As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pairing, sellers are trying to reach for a consolidation below 1.1340 which can lead to a new round of selling for the European currencies. However, the pressure on the euro is most likely to remain on the Fed's protocol meeting later today.


It is expected that a more detailed study will make it clear when the committee will start reducing their asset portfolio. Currently, experts anticipate the reduction on September of this year.


Meanwhile, the British pound ignored the date for the services sector.


According to the IHS Markit report, the PMI for the UK service sector fell to 53.4 points in June from 53.8 points in May. Despite a slight decline, the service sector remains a major factor for the UK's economic growth. The service sector results could also be a wake-up call for the Bank of England who is currently focused on tightening monetary policies. Economists expected the index to be at 54.5 points.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Strong Data from ADP will Support the Dollar








The Fed's minutes of meeting on June did not show any surprise. With the fact of continuing the Bank's plan to normalize monetary policy with some minor restrictions. On the back of this, the market players cautiously assess the incoming data from the US economic statistics.


In consideration of the published figures, the US dollar was able to gain support, however, not so significant. Today, taking off the market will focus on the release of preliminary data from ADP employment in the private sector of the American economy. They traditionally precede the release of the official figures from the US Department of Labor, which will be issued tomorrow.


According to the forecast from Bloomberg news agency, the number of new jobs in the private sector should grow by 180,000 in June. It can be recalled that the May figures were at the level of 253,000. The consensus forecast assumes a range from 140,000 to 253,000.


It can be assumed that if the data from ADP proves to be positive, holding out or above the forecast level, then it can push the dollar to a new local growth, which will only heighten the wave of publishing the same strong data from the Department of Labor.


Recent developments in the market clearly indicate that the presentation of investors about the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy, though with a creak, but impacts the minds of the most stubborn market players. Therefore, the good news from the labor market will only support the dollar on the wave of keeping the plans of the Federal Reserve.


While other important data that should pay attention today are the figures of applications for unemployment benefits, the index of US business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from the ISM for June, of course, the data from the US Department of Energy. In addition, it is expected that FRS member Powell and ECB representative Praet will make some comments. Also, the minutes of June meeting of the ECB will be presented.


Forecast of the day:
The pair EURUSD is still in the short-term downtrend followed by the strengthening of the US dollar. It is expected that when the ADP data came in lower than forecasts, then the pair will resume a smooth correction down to 1.1280 after breaking through the level of 1.1320.


The pair USDJPY is trading above 113.00, hovering in the range of 113.00-113.60. A breakout of the upper range limits the wave of positive data from the ADP which would likely lead to the pair's growth to 114.25.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 10, 2017





When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Sentix Investor Confidence and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Consumer Credit m/m and Labor Market Conditions Index m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1457.
Strong Resistance:1.1451.
Original Resistance: 1.1440.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1429.
Target Inner Area: 1.1404.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1377.
Original Support: 1.1368.
Strong Support: 1.1356.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1350.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

The Growth of the World Economy May Slow Down





The absence of significant fundamental data causes the market to remain in a state of inactivity. Low volatility today locks several currency pairs in the side channels.


A slight strengthening of the euro was seen only at the beginning of the European session. Growth took place after data showed that Germany's exports in May this year revealed significant growth. This happened against a backdrop of good recovery in global demand since the start of this year.


According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the export of goods in May 2017 rose by 1.4% and reached 107.9 billion euros. Compared with the same period of 2016, German exports rose by 14.1%.


Imports of goods did not lag behind export growth. According to data, in May of this year, imports to Germany grew by 1.2% compared with April and amounted to 87.6 billion euros. Compared to May 2016, the indicator rose by 16.2%.


Overall, Germany's trade surplus in May amounted to 20.3 billion euros, while economists had expected an increase of up to 20.1 billion euros.


An interesting forecast was published today by UBS, as it says that by next year the ECB will buy bonds of approximately €180 billion. UBS believes that the European Central Bank will announce a reduction in the program in September of this year, and by January 2018 it will reduce monthly purchases from 60 to 40 billion euros. In June, according to UBS analysts, this program will end.


If we proceed from this forecast, the demand for the euro in the summer will remain within the maximum range of 1.1450-1.1600. Overcoming this critical range will be possible only after an actual announcement of the completion of the bond purchasing program has been made by the ECB, before the Federal Reserve implements programs aimed at reducing the balance sheet, as well as another hike in interest rates, which is also scheduled for early autumn.


Today the report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development showed that its composite leading indicator remained steady at the level of 100 points in May of this year compared with 100 points in April.


The OECD revised the likelihood of accelerating global growth downwards. Mainly due to uncertain growth prospects for the US, UK and Russia, which have declined. In terms of positive data, we can note good prospects of accelerating growth for the economies of China and France.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

The market is at rest





Yesterday's data on the US and the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, did not give proper to the US dollar.


According to the report of the research group, Conference Board, the index if employment trends in the US for May of this year was revised down to 133.32 points from 133.70 points.


The growth in consumer lending in the US also indicates a stable situation in the US economy.


According to the data provided by the statistics agency, consumer lending in the US for May this year increased by $ 18.41 billion following a growth of $ 12.9 billion in the previous month of April.


Yesterday's speech by the Federal Reserve representative, John Williams, did not lead to major changes in the market.


Williams said that if inflation slows down, it will be in favor of further gradual tightening of monetary policy. This means another increase in interest rates this years is a reasonable baseline scenario.


He also noted that at the present time, there are a lot of signs that the economy is strengthening including the growth of salaries in the US which is in line with expectations. In his opinion, the US fiscal policy is on an unstable path and the reforms that the White house wants to hold will help to improve the situation.


With regard to the reduction of balance, Williams said that it makes sense to begin the normalization as soon as possible this year.


In general, the Federal Reserve representative along with his colleagues did not say anything new. Because of this, the market reaction to his statements did not follow.


As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, everything remains the same.


The support level at 1.381 is important since the current upward trend formed on last July 5 will depend on it. A breakthrough in this area will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a decrease in the trading instruments that are already in the support level of 1.1330. If the buyers of the European currency manage to tighten it to the middle level of the channel at 1.1410, then it is likely that the bull scenario will continue to update with the monthly highs of 1.1440 to 1.1470.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Yellen's words will be fatal for the dollar








Speeches by members of the Federal Reserve, Brainard and Kashkari, caused the US dollar to collapse on Tuesday. Their words raised fears that the Fed will not risk raising rates anymore for this year and perhaps in the next year too.


In the address of Fed representative, Lael Brainard, she expressed doubts that the next increase in interest rates would occur this year.She reasoned that there are fears caused by the slowing rate of inflation. Despite this, Brainard still actively advocates the beginning of the Central Bank balance sheet reduction saying that it will happen "in the near future." She said that the strong labor market indicates an acceleration in economic activity and that this chance should not be missed. It is necessary to start a smooth and, most importantly, an expected reduction in the bank balance of $4.5 trillion which was mainly accumulated during the three quantitative easing programs.


The most radical comment came from a well-known opponent of the monetary policy tightening, Fed member, Neel Kashkari. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Kashkari, said yesterday that the slowdown in wage growth rate indicates the absence of "overheating" in the economy. Hence, inflationary pressure is not so strong. That's why there is no reason for raising interest rates. He once again confirmed the thesis that the rate hike is a mistake and can lead to negative consequences. Kashkari is the most consistent opponent of tightening the Fed's monetary policy.


Of course, against this background and because of today's expectations on Federal Reserve head, Janet Yellen's speech to the US Congress, the dollar on Tuesday dropped significantly against the euro and the yen. This is caused by the uncertainty in market regarding what the head of the world's biggest central bank would say.


It can be assumed that if her speech is reasonably optimistic today, then the weakening of the dollar will soon stop and it may even grow against the euro and the yen on the wave of partial closure of long positions in these currencies. Further growth in the dollar may resume only if Friday's inflation data in the States prove to be positive. However, if Yellen expresses even some doubt that interest rates will be raised this year again, then the weakening of the dollar will continue. This will also increase the wave of inflation data that is already high, if she disappoints. Forecast of the day:


The EUR/USD currency pair is corrected down after reaching a new local maximum, However, it can continue to decline on if the speech to the Congress of the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, contains positive sentiment regarding the prospects of the US economy. On this wave, the price decline below the 1.1445 mark may turn lower to the 1.1385 mark and then to 1.1320.


The USD/JPY currency pair fell on the wave of uncertain growth in the Fed's monetary policy report which will be presented today along with Yellen's speech in the Congress. However, the situation may change if the report and the speech are positive. In this case, the price can overcome the 113.60 mark and strive to the 114.25 mark.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

The U.S. Maintains Moderate Inflationary Pressure


Data on consumer price inflation in Germany did not support the European currency, as it was fully in line with economists' forecast.


Given the fact that the data was in line with expectations, a new trend in relation to the buying of the European currency, which was observed at the Asian session, was not formed.


According to the statistics agency, the final consumer price index of Germany in June this year increased by 0.2% compared with May.





Core inflation, which excludes the volatile categories of goods, also increased.


Today, there were talks in the market that in August ECB President Mario may express the strengthening of the central bank's confidence in the eurozone economy, which could weaken its dependence on monetary stimulus.


If the future of the current stimulus program , under with the ECB buys assets worth


In the second half of the day, the data on US inflation was released, which was slightly different from the forecasts of economists.


According to a report of the US Department of Labor, the indicator for the final demand in the US rose in June, indicating a moderate increase in inflationary pressure in the economy.





In general, the technical picture in the EURUSD pair remains on the side of the US dollar buyers, and will depend much on what the chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen says, since it is her remarks that will determine the future direction in the trading instrument.


A break of support at 1.1380 resume sales on EURUSD, which will lead to the renewal of 1.1330 and 1.1250. The return to the level of 1.1420 will serve as an opportunity to build new long positions in order to return to monthly highs in the 1.1500 area.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

The dollar remained without support


The US dollar finished the week with large-scale sales, never seeing a single factor that could support it. The formal reason for the decline in investor confidence was the report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on inflation, but this was not the only reason.


Consumer prices remained unchanged in June while annual inflation slowed to 1.6% from 1.9% a month earlier. Both indicators were worse than expected.





Also an unpleasant surprise was the decline in retail sales for the second month in a row. Experts expected a slight increase. The slowdown in consumer activity is an alarming factor as it indicates that incoming signals, one after another, about slower economic growth are not accidental and will likely cause a crisis to develop.


The preliminary value of the consumer confidence index according to the University of Michigan was significantly lower than expected at 93.1 points in July against the forecast of 95.0 points and last month's figure of 95.1 points. The subindex of expectations are declining at the fastest rate, indicating that consumers are preparing for a deterioration in the outlook for the coming months.


The GDPNow model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasts the US GDP growth for the second quarter at 2.4%. This is higher than the result of the first quarter but significantly below expectations. The first estimate, which was presented in May, came out at 4.3%. At the time, it seemed that the positive momentum in the economy will develop but for two months in a row, the key macroeconomic indicators are worse than forecasts.





The Federal Reserve Bank of New York expects that GDP growth will be at 1.9% in Q2. However, this estimate may be too optimistic. At any rate, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking in Congress, said that achieving an economic growth of 3% "will be pretty hard." Recalling the basic scenario by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the average annual growth is set at 4%. Even in this case, the budget deficit in the next ten years will grow to 1.5 trillion dollars and reach a GDP of 5.2%. Weaker growth will significantly accelerate the development of a negative scenario. It can only be overcome through swift and decisive reforms while the situation develops in the opposite way. As indicated in the report of the Ministry of Finance published on Thursday, the budget deficit in June amounted to 90.233 billion dollar within the nine months of the current fiscal year. The negative balance grew by 31% and reached 523 billion. There is no reason to expect that the situation may change as the collection of taxes is reduced. Against the background of a drop in consumer activity, there is no chance of an increase of tax collection.


Actually, it was the reassessment of the player's prospects for the development of the situation that caused the dollar to fall sharply on Friday. It's not just a matter of low inflation. The fact is that even optimistic models (and the optimistic CBO forecast) do not see good exit scenarios. The Fed may begin to reduce the balance sheets in the coming months. In any case, the preparation of public opinion for this step is being carried out purposefully. Yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that it is necessary to start reducing the Fed's balance sheet "very soon", possibly in September. Low inflation, in his opinion, is temporary. He also added that the achievement of full employment will contribute to higher prices.


The beginning of the reduction in the balance of the Fed means terminating the practice of refinancing revenues. In other words, the Fed will gradually reduce the repayment of government debts which, against the background of a growing budget deficit and a reduction in the collection of taxes, can have extremely unpleasant consequences for the Trump administration. In September, the government should already receive a result regarding the level of borrowing from the Congress. This will exhaust the latest resources for financing current activities and will make them face the prospect of technical default. However, in order for the Congress to meet Trump and raise the ceiling of national debt, it will be necessary to convince him of the feasibility plans for reforming the tax and health policies. It is necessary to present these plans formally.


Thus, for the dollar, there is still no reason to resume growth.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 18, 2017





When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as NAHB Housing Market Index and Import Prices m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1528.
Strong Resistance:1.1521.
Original Resistance: 1.1510.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1499.
Target Inner Area: 1.1472.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1445.
Original Support: 1.1434.
Strong Support: 1.1423.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1416.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 19, 2017





Overview:
The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7307. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.7307 coincides with 61.8% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. So, major support is seen at the level of 0.7307. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.7307 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7372. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.7372, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7400 in order to test the daily resistance 1. However, it would also be sage to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7287.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.