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GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for January 28, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the rollback of the pair from 1.4850 was limited by the resistance level 1.5100.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here. The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.4850 is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5192 as the breakout of this level will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/GBP_CHF.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 28, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is rolling back after it broke the upper limit of the downside channel. However, the growth was limited again by the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/USD_JPY.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 28, 2011
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212
Lately the USD/CAD has been demonstrating sideways movement. Market participants are expecting it to be trapped in the range between 0.9910 and 1.0020 in the nearest future. Therefore, the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/USD_CAD.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 28, 2011
The AUD/USD is basically trading in the flat limited by 1.0076-0.9831. However the wave count shows that this pair is standing in potential daily wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. To confirm wave C break below 0.9803 is needed (top of wave A). Within the daily wave there alre also waves of smaller degree, e.g. the price is developing subwave C - colored magenta in the chart, which also has wave C of still smaller degree - colored red. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0076, 1.0076-0.9831-1.0021, 1.0021-0.9888-1.0000, 1.0000-0.9874-0.9944.
Supports:
- 0.9870-67-66 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP) and objective point (OP)
- 0.9818 = OP
- 0.9797 = COP
- 0.9785 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9776 = OP
- 0.9740 = XOP
If the price keeps going up the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0000-0.9874, and expansions off 0.9831-1.0021-0.9874.
Resistances:
- 0.9937 = .50 retracement
- 0.9952 = .618 ret
- 0.9991 = COP
- 1.0064 = OP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The Oscillator is now at the zero level coming from below, which may be a good retracement to take. Still it's better to wait for a deeper retracement into the overbought area (15-20 pips to go - 0.9915-20) or to a Fib resistance - 0.9937-0.9952 - to open short positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 28, 2011
By breaking above 132.48 the GBP/JPY has confirmed wave C of daily degree - colored light green in the chart. But on smaller timeframes the GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave B - colored orange red in the chart.
The targets of the corrective downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.55-132.64, 129.49-132.64.
Supports:
- 131.44-35 = confluence area of .382 and .618 retracements
- 131.07 = .50 ret
- 130.69 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the nearest strategic resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49.
Resistances:
- 133.82 = contracted objective point (COP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero to consider long positions. Now the oscillator is below the zero level, quite close to the oversold. It means that now it's the time to wait until the price bounces from a Fib support (131.35 or 131.07) and open longs. In addition the oversold area is 15-30 pips away from the current price, therefore 131.07 would presumably be the exptreme level for the price to reach.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, January 27, 2011
An upwards trend has been recorded this morning in Asia's stock markets, led by export-sector stock and inspired by the Fed chairman's statements that he would continue supporting the world's largest economy by quantitative easing. As such, the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose by 0.8%, the Hong Kong stock exchange rose by 0.3% and the Seoul stock exchange increased by 0.3%.
The Federal Reserve avoided making any police changes as part of the first FOMC meeting of 2011. The Fed's announcement was slightly more optimistic regarding possible improvements in the American labor market. Chairman Ben Bernanke had left the United States interest rate unchanged, at its 0.0%-0.25% low, avoiding any change to the second quantitative easing program announced in November.
The Fed's economic prediction was moderate despite recent signs seen in the United States that seem to suggest that the economic recovery is accelerating. In its announcement, the Fed stated that the high unemployment rate in the United States continues to form a justification of the bank's second quantitative easing program.
In the global currency market, the United States dollar weakens to its lowest level since November as compared to the world's leading currencies. Currently the dollar is trading against the Euro around the level of 1.3720 United States dollars for one Euro.The British pound to a level of 1.5960 United States dollars for one pound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 27, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110127/EUR_h4.gif
The whole previous day the EUR/USD currency pair was trading in a quite narrow price range near the 37 figure level. At the same time, it seems that the price started to form an inner wave structure of the 5th wave in the estimated c. However, at the moment it is quite difficult to define the target level from which the euro will start declining, which is predicated by significantly overbought indicators.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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CHF/JPY Technical Analysis , Janaury 27, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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CHF/JPY
A downwards breach of the level is expected to pave the way towards the lower support levels of 84.50 Japanese Yen for one Swiss Franc. A daily close under the 87.00 trigger level will put is in a sell position on the pair with a stop loss order positioned slightly over the last local high around 88.40.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 27, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110127/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The euro is still in the upside movement, the target level has been already passed, but there are no signs of completing movement. The formed signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3748 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3877. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3580), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging again and directed up. The MACD is descending, however, we do not see the price moving down, which means that the indicator is resetting accumulated parameters, therefore it is might not be taken into consideration at the moment.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3748, and further to 1.3877. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3580.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
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USD/CHF wave analysis for January 27, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110127/CHF_h4.gif
During yesterday’s trading The USD/CHF pair could not overcome the correction level 76.4%, calculated in accordance with the upside section formed in the period between December 31 and January 11. At the same time there is a possibility that the 3rd wave in the estimated will become prolonged. However, given the oversold indicators, current downside section in the range of this might end near yesterday’s low at 0.9402, where parity between the a and c waves is also located.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, January 28, 2011
A negative trend has been recorded this morning in Asia's stock markets, with the sharpest decline recorded by the Japanese stock exchange. Index declines on the continent have occurred on the background of the decision of the S&P credit ratings agency to cut Japan's sovereign credit rating to a level of AA- from a previous rating of AA. The Japanese Nikkei has reacted to the move with a 1.1% decline.
In the American macroeconomic arena, the Department of Labor reported yesterday that the amount of first unemployment filings in the United States grew by 51 thousand to a total of 454 thousand new unemployment claims. The economists have expected a far more moderate ascent in the amount of new weekly filings to a level of 405 thousand. Furthermore, the Department of Commerce announced that the amount of orders for non-consumable goods in the United States declined by 2.5% during the month of December. The economist’s prediction was for a 1.4% rise.
The Department has announced further that new home sales in the United States leaped up in September by the sharpest rate in the last 19 years due to a 72% rise in home sales in the Western United States. We note that new home sales leaped up by 18% in the last month – the sharpest rate since 1992.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD wave analysis for January 28, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/GBP_h4.gif
The GBP/USD currency pair missed a few pips to reach the 1.6000, initiated a rollback and declined by almost a figure. However, in the current upside section the pound has a real chance to test early highs near 1.6055 and reach 1.6060, having formed a five-wave uptrend structure, developing since December 28. At the same time, the price still has potential to form a more complex inner wave structur of the 4th wave by declining to targets near 1.5700.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD wave analysis for January 28, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/EUR_h4(2).gif
During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD currency pair has finally reached the correction level 76.4%. At the same time, inner wave structure of the 5th wave in the estimated c does not look complete at the moment. It is worth mentioning that complex inner structure of the 5th wave gives the euro an opportunity to continue growth to the respective parity of the waves a and c near the 1.3830 level. However, given strongly overbought indicators, a reverse of the price down after another attempt to pass the 1.3740 – 1.3755 level.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for January 28, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110128/CHF_h4.gif
As expected, the second attempt to overcome the correction level 76.4% was unsuccessful and caused the USD/CHF trying to roll back in favour of the dollar. At the same time there is parity between the estimated waves a and c of the whole downside section, developing since January 11. Based on this, we might suppose that the pair will continue its upside movement in the direction of the estimated target near the 96 figure levels.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/JPY Bearish Forecast , Janaury 28, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...errrrroppp.gif
EUR/JPY
Only a Breach of the 114.00 resistance level will cancel the prediction bearish on the pair.
The pair has broken the trend line that had formed in 4 hours, therefore
a return to their pullback trendline and not violate confirm our point of entry into 113.20, or a daily close below 112.40 would confirm our bearish forecast.
The downwards Movement is Expected to carry the pair down to the lower support level of 109.40.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 31, 2011
The GBP/JPY is still moving in wave C of daily degree (colored light green in the chart). But break below 129.49 will end this wave. At this moment the targets below the current price level are Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-132.64.
Supports:
- 129.90 = .382 retracement - already hit (!)
- 129.06 = .50 ret
- 128.21 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 132.64-129.75, and expansions off 129.49-132.64-129.75.
Resistances:
- 130.85 = .382 ret
- 131.19 = .50 ret
- 131.54 = .618
- 131.70 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.90 = objective point (OP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 31, 2011
Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has made a sharp rebound up and at the moment is testing the resistance level 1.0026. However, the viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
By the end of the previous week the EUR/GBP closed slightly on the upside. Earlier the EUR/GBP demonstrated significant growth, however, it could not break the resistance level near 0.8650-0.8660.
At the moment the view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing in a downward trend.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%207.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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