Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for January 31, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the rollback of the pair from 1.4850 was limited by the resistance level 1.5100.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here. The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.4850 is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5192 as the breakout of this level will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 31, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is demonstrating downside movement. Earlier the growth was limited again by the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.  


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, January 31, 2011 The coup attempt and riots in Egypt caused a leap in CDS for Egyptian obligations by 25% this week, dragging other the obligations of other nations in the Arab world along, both those of developed and of awakening markets. The riots also influenced the currency market, with the Egyptian pound dropping by 4.5% since the beginning of January. The riots also burdened the Turkish lira, which dropped 3.6% since early January. This week we expect the publication, among other U.S. Macroeconomic data, of the private expenditure and income data, to be published today before the start of trading. Tomorrow the procurement managers' index for the productive sector and automotive sales data will be published, to be followed on Wednesday by ADP's preliminary employment report, the unofficial preliminary for the monthly report to be published on Friday. On Thursday, THE ECB is expected to publish its interest rate decision for the coming month. Soon afterward, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet it expected to give a speech covering a broader picture of the European economy. The peak will be the United States employment report for December, to be published on Friday. After the unemployment rate has dropped by surprise to 9.4% in November, Analysts predict a new rise in December, this time to 9.6%. Last Friday the United States department of trade published preliminary data showing that the U.S. GDP grew in the fourth quarter of 2010 at an annualized rate of 3.2%. This growth rate was more moderate than the 3.5% rise predicted by economists, yet it marked the continued recovery of the American economy after a 2.6 growth in the third and a 1.7% growth in the second quarter of 2010. Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== USD/JPY wave analysis. Week review. The USD/JPY currency pair cannot tear off the upper limit of the downside corridor, making attempts to complete the formation of the 2nd wave in the 3rd (c) nevertheless. In this respect, the decision of the S&P agency to decrease Japan’s sovereign rating gives some optimism in relation to possible growth of the quotes. At the same time, if an upside movement in favour of the dollar resumes, the 3rd wave (c) might obtain quite complex and prolonged shape by developing in the direction of the first target level located near the 85 figure, and further to 88.00. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== EUR/GBP Downward Movement , Janaury 31, 2011 (Daily Strategy) EUR/GBP A final confirmation of an end to the upwards movement will be received only after the pair breaches the major support level at 0.8560. A downwards breach of the support level is expected to start a new wave of downwards movements that is likely to take the pair all the way down to the low support levels of 0.8311 British pounds for one Euro. A continuation of the shuffling movement may form a good opportunity for entry into a sell deal at an attractive level should the pair move towards the near resistance level at 0.8660, but fail to breach it upwards, Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== GBP/USD. Weekly Pivot Points, For January 31 to February 04, 2011 _____WEEKLY______ Weekly - R3 = 1.6266 Weekly - R2 = 1.6141 Weekly - R1 = 1.6000 Weekly Pivot = 1.5875 Weekly - S1 = 1.5734 Weekly - S2 = 1.5609 Weekly - S3 = 1.5468 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== EUR/USD. Weekly Pivot Points, For January 31 to February 04, 2011 _____WEEKLY_______ Weekly - R3 = 1.3950 Weekly - R2 = 1.3853 Weekly - R1 = 1.3732 Weekly Pivot = 1.3635 Weekly - S1 = 1.3514 Weekly - S2 = 1.3417 Weekly - S3 = 1.3296 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010 More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 1, 2011

The GBP/JPY is developing potential wave C of medium term uptrend - colored red in the chart. To confirm wave C break above 132.64 is needed, since it's the top of wave A. The targets above the current price level are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75.
Resistances:
- 132.90 = objective point (OP)
- 133.82 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 134.85 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps moving down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-132.64, 129.75-131.96, and expansions off 132.64-129.75-131.96.
Supports:
- 131.12 = .382 retracement
- 130.86 = .50 ret
- 130.69 = .618 ret
- 130.17 = COP
- 129.07-06 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 128.21 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is still up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero to consider long positions. The oscillator is slightly below the zero, confirming the retracement, the oversold area is 15-30 pips below the current price, therefore wait for a retracement to at least 131.12 (.382 ret) to consider long positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

The EUR/GBP started this week on the downside as another attempt to break the resistance level near 0.8650-0.8660 was unsuccessful.
At the moment the view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing in a downward trend.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/JPY candlestick analysis for February 1, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is still demonstrating downside movement after it failed again to break the Fibonacci correction level 61.8.
As mentioned before, if the support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.  


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD technical analysis for February 1, 2011

Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9820, 0.9711
Resistance levels: 1.0026, 1.0050, 1.0212

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has made a sharp rebound up, but could not close above the resistance level 1.0026. The viewpoint to the pair is still neutral.
As mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0026 resistance level further advance to 1.0212 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
However, if a reversal takes place break of the 0.9820 support level will target the pair to 0.9711.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/CHF candlestick analysis for February 1, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has successfully broken the resistance level 1.5100. As mentioned before, stop loss should be placed slightly above 1.5192 as the breakout of this level will target the GBP/CHF to 1.5400.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/CHF has formed candlestick combination Falling Three Methods, which indicates downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair had been demonstrating upside movement for several weeks after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 1.4400. However, it reversed near 1.5400. This implies that the bears became more active at this point and the bulls could not solidify here. The breakthrough of the support level 1.5100 and the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.4850 is broken, downside movement targeted at 1.4400 should be expected.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, February 1, 2011



On the United States macroeconomic front, private consumption grew faster than expected in December, completing the best quarter in the last four years. Personal income grew in December as well, completing the second month of growth rising. The Department of Commerce reported yesterday that private consumption grew by 0.7% last month after 0.3% growth in November. The rise also outdid analysts’ predictions of a 0.6% rise. Personal income grew 0.4%, as predicted.

Also on the macroeconomic front, ISM reported yesterday that the procurement managers' index for Chicago rose to a level of 68.8 points this month – the highest level since July of 1988. We note that any reading over 50 points shows an expansion of activity, while a reading under that level reflects a contraction of activity.

On the New York Commodities exchange, crude oil futures for March leaped up by 3.2%, locking at a price level of 92.20 United States dollars per barrel, the highest close since October 2008. The leap in oil prices has been recorded based on concerns that the uprising in Egypt will harm the passing of oil and other goods through the Suez Canal.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For February 1 to February 4, 2011



_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0177
Weekly - R2 = 1.0099
Weekly - R1 = 1.0019
Weekly Pivot = 0.9941
Weekly - S1 = 0.9861
Weekly - S2 = 0.9783
Weekly - S3 = 0.9703





_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.0595
Monthly - R2 = 1.0404
Monthly - R1 = 1.0186
Monthly Pivot = 0.9995
Monthly - S1 = 0.9777
Monthly - S2 = 0.9586
Monthly - S3 = 0.9368







Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com







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USD/CHF Bullish View , February 1, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair is even now battling the 0.9400 strong support level in an attempt to breach it downwards and to move on towards new lows. That said, it is estimated that should the pair fail to breach the support level, a reverse upwards movement will commence, attempting to breach the minor trend line passing through the level of 0.9440 Swiss Francs for one United States dollar.

A meaningful entry into a buy position is to be carried out only after the closing of the 4-hour bar over the trigger and testing level of 0.9440 Swiss Francs for one United States dollar.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - February 2, 2011

The GBP/JPY is developing potential wave C of medium term uptrend - colored magenta in the chart. To confirm wave C break above 132.64 is needed, it's the top of wave A. At this moment the nearest resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-132.48-129.49, 129.49-132.64-129.75, 129.75-131.96-130.91.

Resistances:

- 132.05 = objective point (OP)
- 132.28 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.61 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 132.90 = OP
- 133.12 = OP
- 133.52 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 133.82 = COP

If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.47-132.64, 129.75-131.96, and expansions off 132.64-129.75-131.96.

Supports:

- 130.86 = .50 retracement
- 130.59 = .618 ret
- 130.17 = COP
- 129.07-06 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 128.21 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is still up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero to consider long positions. The oscillator is slightly above the zero level, therefore stand aside until the price hits a Fib support and only then consider long positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com