Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count for April 30, 2012


AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week the AUD/USD pair was developing an impulsive wave 3 (coloured pink). Presently we can observe the end of the 3 wave and start of the corrective wave 4 (coloured pink). During the Friday's European session we could observe the aggressive ascending movement towards the 1.0430 level. Therefore during the New York session the AUD/USD pair continues to be traded within a bullish mood. At the end of the New York session we could observe the price reaching 4 weeks high at 1.0473 level. We can consider this move as the end of the wave 3 (coloured pink). Today during the Asian session the price has started moving in a bearish mood and price is currently testing 1.0440 support level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 50% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (1.0305-1.0482) and Take Profit at 1.0394 (50% of wave 3). For Stop Loss the resistance level at 1.0470 can be used. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m and Chicago PMI that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0311 (S2) 1.0358 (S1) 1.0386 (PP) 1.0432 (R1) 1.0479 (R2) 1.0507 (R3) 1.0553

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.0435 with Stop Loss at 1.0470 and Take Profit at 1.395 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count for May 1, 2012


AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the AUD/USD pair has started developing corrective wave 2 (coloured pink). During the European session we could observe the descending movement towards 1.0425 level (50 EMA Support). Therefore during the New York session the price continues the bearish mood and the price has reached its low at 1.0405 level. We can consider this move as end of (A) (coloured black) of the bigger 2 wave (Coloured pink). In late New York the AUD/USD pair started pushing higher and the price reached the 1.0430 level. We can consider this move as end of (B) wave.Today during the Asian and European session we could observe the strong bearish mood in this major and price drop to the 1.0303 level. Presently we can observe the end of 2 wave (coloured pink) and start of the 3 wave (coloured pink) of the bigger 3 wave (coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0246-1.0473-1.02956); the First Take Profit at 1.0520 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0660 (161.8% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0246. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speaks, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks and FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair and Pianalto’s speech that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 1.0372 (S2) 1.0396 (S1) 1.0411 (PP) 1.0435 (R1) 1.0459 (R2) 1.0474 (R3) 1.0498

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0350 with Stop Loss at 1.0246, Take Profit 1 at 1.0520 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0660 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for May 1, 2012


USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair has finished developing of the 3 wave (coloured blue) and start pushing higher for the 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session we could observe the upward movement toward 0.9825 level (50 EMA Resistance). Therefore during the New York session we could observe price above 200EMA. At the end of the New York session we could see the price reaching new daily high at 0.9893 level.Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a sideways move. We are expecting to see price higher today in a New York session for the end of the 4 wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with simple measuring the first wave range; the First Take Profit at 0.9825 (61.8% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 0.9779 (100% of wave 1). For Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 0.9927. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speaks, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks and CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks that can affect the rate of the pair and Pianalto’s speech that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9765 (S2) 0.9800 (S1) 0.9821 (PP) 0.9856 (R1) 0.9891 (R2) 0.9912 (R3) 0.9947

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9900 with Stop Loss at 0.9927, Take Profit 1 at 0.9825 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9779 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, for May 1, 2012


Standing in line with last month’s announcement the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rates from 4 to 3.75% early

this morning resulting in significant downward movement of the local currency – the Australian dollar.

The slowdown in the growth of China's economy, Australia's main market including the low inflation made the BRA take a step

that investors have been waiting for a long time, given that the local reference rate was and still is the highest of the

major central banks.

Moreover the yen continues its upward trend on all fronts and reached a new high since February 22 during the last hours

against the dollar. The targets for the downward movement which naturally favor the JPY are located in the 79.10 area

corresponding to 61.8% of the rally 76.01 / 84.14.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar appears to stop its fall after the publication of an unfavorable data on GDP for the first

quarter. Against all odds the measurement showed a decrease of 0.2% cancelling the loonie highs of last September reached

in the recent days. The Canadian currency is expected to continue its downward trend in coming days and even break the

deadlock against the dollar which is a pivots point for several weeks.

Faced with these scenarios the euro is about to reach 1.32, taking into account also that the majority of European

financial markets are closed due to the Labor Day. Particularly striking is the strength of the single currency in these

times. The debt crisis in several countries led by Spain whose problem of unemployment and recession has no output in the

short term impacts the exchange rate of the euro. Considering all this there is a question: should we expect the

announcement on interest rate cuts? On Thursday the ECB President, Mario Draghi, announced the monetary policy of the

state.

In this regard, consider that recent interest rate movements were in defense of southern Europe affected by crisis that has

recently reached its peak. But Germany, the Europe's engine continues to reap near-record economic figures and in fight the

inflation in this country. The ECB for a second time in a row raised the interest rate. In two days we will know the

further information. The country continues drawing attention to the currency affected on all fronts.

The pound sterling is more relieved although in the last hour has shown signs of weakness against the dollar by breaking

the uptrend line crossing GBP / USD. Anyway, the British is not likely to be affected and could recover quickly from the

movement this morning caused mainly by the UK manufacturing PMI.

As to the U.S. session on Tuesday is expected ISM manufacturing at 10:00 Eastern which is the most important news of the

day.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012



More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Around Bearish Trendline - May 01, 2012 (Daily Strategy)








The EUR/USD pair is about to reach 1.32. It is necessary to consider the speech of ECB president Mario Draghi announced the

monetary policy of the state on Thursday. This may be decisive for the future of the Euro.

In technical terms the euro is trading far below the downtrend line, but according to Momentum indicators and Range

provides the bearish signals and a possible imminent correcion. On the other hand if the euro would break the downtrend

line and the negotiation of today closed above the 1.3280 level. This fact points that the euro continued its upward trend

to 1.3370; therefore selling is recommended at 1.3240 level.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

More analysis - at instaforex.com






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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for May 1









Wave marking analysis:
Due to the yesterday’s weak trades the EUR/USD pair has failed to define its further movement. As a result the pair

remained within the range of 1.3200 – 1.3260 for the whole day. Considering the corrective scenario the current wave

structure still allows the euro to reach the target levels located in the area of 1.3300-1.3345. At the same time the wave

E of the current upward correction looks as the complex one confirming the assumption that yesterday’s decline of quotes

will continue towards the April’s low (1.3000).



Targets for resumption of the descending part of the trend within the wave 3 or C:
1.3087 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
1.3039 – 11.4% of Fibonacci

Targets for the wave E in 2 or B (complication of the corrective part of the trend):
1.3295 – 76.4% of Fibonacci
1.3343 – 88.6% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The recent growth of quotes can be considered as a quite complicated wave 2 or B. The present ascending movement within the

wave E has targets 1.3295 and 1.3343 corresponding to 76.4% and 88.6% of Fibonacci respectively. MACD divergence points at

possible reversal of quotes for the benefit of the dollar in the nearest future as the wave 2 or B are nearly finished.

Nevertheless. The correction is getting more and more complicated every day. This fact can result in transformation of the

whole structure into impulse one and therefore, the whole wave marking will need corrections. If the current marking is

true, the wave 3 or C with targets seen at 1.3087 and 1.3039 will begin its formation almost from the present points.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




More analysis - at instaforex.com

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 3, 2012 GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B of medium term uptrend from 127.04 (royal blue in the chart). Within this wave we have two subwaves (magenta in the chart), and potential corrective subwave B is developing from 129.02. Within it there are two subwaves (red in the chart), and subwave B is developing from 130.71. Now the targets above the current price are Fibonacci expansions off 127.04-131.75-129.02, 129.02-130.71-129.42. Resistances: - 131.11 = objective point (OP) - 131.93 = contracted objective point (COP) - 132.15 = expanded objective point (XOP) If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 127.04-131.75, and expansions off 131.75-129.02-130.71. Supports: - 129.02 = COP - 128.84 = .618 retracement - 127.98 = OP Overbought/Oversold The bigger wave is now moving up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (35-55 pips below the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go long at or near the indicated supports. Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012 More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD Elliott wave count for May 3, 2012 USD/CAD Elliott Wave Yesterday the USD/CAD pair was trading upwards near the end of 4 wave. During the European session we observed ascending movement towards the 0.9890 level. Therefore, during the New York session we saw the continuation of the bullish mood and the price reached 5-day high at the 0.9903 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 4 wave (coloured blue). The USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and we watched a downward move in the second half of the New York session. Today during the Asian session the USD/CAD pair was descending towards the 0.9845 level. We expect to see price under the 0.9800 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring the first wave range; the First Take Profit at 0.9809 (78.6% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 0.9783 (100% of wave 1). As Stop Loss we can use the resistance level at 0.9885. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Prelim. Non-farm Productivity q/q, Prelim. Unit Labour Costs q/q, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speech and FOMC Member Lockhart Speech that can affect the rate of the pair. Support and Resistance levels (S3) 0.9817 (S2) 0.9838 (S1) 0.9851 (PP) 0.9872 (R1) 0.9893 (R2) 0.9906 (R3) 0.9927 Trading Forecast Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9840 with Stop Loss at 0.9885, Take Profit 1 at 0.9809 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9783 are recommended. Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012 More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count for May 3, 2012 AUD/USD Elliott Wave Yesterday the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move. During the European session we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.0320 level. Therefore during the early New York session the price continued trading in a bearish mood and reached the 1.0283 level. So AUD/USD did not manage to hold this level in a second half of the New York, and we could observe price to retrace to 50 EMA resistance. Today during the Asian session we could observe the price under the 1.0300 level again. We are awaiting to see it higher soon. Presently we can see the end of the wave 2 (coloured pink). In accordance with our wave rules, taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0246-1.0473-1.0274); the First Take Profit at 1.0504 (100% of wave 1) and Second Take Profit at 1.0644 (161.8% of wave 1). As Stop Loss we can use the invalidation point at 1.0246. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S. Unemployment Claims, Prelim. Non-farm Productivity q/q, Prelim. Unit Labour Costs q/q, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Williams Speech and FOMC Member Lockhart Speech, that can affect the rate of the pair. Support and Resistance levels (S3) 1.0254 (S2) 1.0280 (S1) 1.0297 (PP) 1.0324 (R1) 1.0350 (R2) 1.0367 (R3) 1.0394 Trading Forecast Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0320 with Stop Loss at 1.0246, Take Profit 1 at 1.0504 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0644 are recommended. Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012 More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for May 10, 2012 AUD/USD is developing impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend. Within this wave there are five subwaves (red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave A of A-B-C cycle is developing against the downtrend from 1.0020. Within this wave there are three subwaves (yellow in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 1.0033.The targets above are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0473-1.0020, 1.0219-1.0020, and expansions off 1.0020-1.0085-1.0033.Resistances:- 1.0120 = .50 retracement- 1.0138-43 = expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret- 1.0193 = .382 ret- 1.0203 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)- 1.0246 = .50 retIf the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0473-1.0304-1.0354, 1.0354-1.0110-1.0219.Supports:- 0.9975 = objective point (OP)- 0.9912 = SXOPOverbought/OversoldThe larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expertInstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012More analysis - at instaforex.com