Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 21, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 119.31. Within this wave there are A, B, and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), with potential subwave С still developing from 120.23. Within the latter there are A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 119.31-122.64-120.23, 120.23-121.08-120.36.
Resistances:
- 122.29 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.59 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 123.56 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 120.36-122.10.
Supports:
- 121.44 = .382 retracement
- 121.23 = .50 ret
- 121.02 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at the specified supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 21, 2011

AUD/USD is developing potential impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0379. Within this wave there are two subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with corrective subwave B still developing from 0.9861. The latter also has its subwaves - A, B, and C (colored red in the chart), with C developing from 0.9883. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0379-0.9861, and expansions off 0.9861-1.0027-0.9883, 0.9883-1.0094-1.0053.
Resistances:
- 1.0152 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0181-83 = confluence area of .618 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0264-68 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .786 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9883 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

verbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (20-30 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (60-80 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at the specified supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, December, 21 / 2011


The likely bid which will later in the day the European Central Bank to banks, asking about 380 billion dollars (290 billion euros) in loans to 3 years, and the reference rate of the ECB itself, upward thrust being given to the euro.

The single currency against the dollar is growing rapidly, in a much more optimistic than last week in financial markets. European shares also reflect the high spirits of investors, operating its major indexes average gain of 1.3%.

The measure would take the ECB appears to be the most sensible of the worsening financial crisis in Europe in November, and will undoubtedly bring some relief to the banks, leading providers of states now in trouble, which has brought enormous problems to meet their own commitments.

It, too, a reflection of this: in U.S. banks fell for the housing bubble that they created, providing mortgages to individuals who clearly were not able to meet its payments, and the world fell on banks, guilty certainly, but operating under rules imposed by the Fed

In Europe, the culprits are governments themselves. His populist policies, patronage, without any vision for the future and unable to move their aging structures, have led their countries to take bank loans at very reasonable rates even, aided by Germany.

So why not exhaustively noted those governments? Perhaps it is that little by little are withdrawn, and one of the latest examples is Spain. The new government took office promising a hard Rajoy adjustment to the economy, no doubt unpleasant, but essential if you intend that his country begins to show signs of recovery in the near future.

The same path should follow the rest of Europe to consolidate or minimal growth in 2012, seeking a sustainable recovery in 2013. Anyway, as we have reiterated many times in this column: "money problems are solved with money." If the ECB, IMF, or whoever, euros injected into the economies in trouble, even at the risk of renewed inflation, the output will be faster. With speeches, as was seen during 2010 and 2011, nothing comes.

Turning to the day's news agenda, have been known as the Minutes of the Bank of England. It was learned that the decision to leave unchanged the interest rate remains nearly 3 years at 0.5% was unanimous by the Monetary Policy Committee.

In addition, important data are expected in Canada, where at 8:30 Eastern will be published consumer price index. The loonie has regained strength in these days, in favor of a downward movement of the dollar in general, and the growth of oil in particular.

In the U.S., at 10:00, will be the turn of the sales of existing homes, and 10:30, the weekly oil inventories.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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NATURAL GAS (#NG) Buy Long Above 3.040 December/21/ 2011 (Weekly Strategy)






NATURAL GAS

Natural gas futures is trading at $ 3,107 per million British thermal units during the American session, trading at a very small range, we have a very strong support. 3.040( weekly support), we believe the pair may reach this level and then take upward force.

If you notice on the chart, natural gas has left a gap in its opening last week of December 12. is likely to have to close that gap before continuing its downward trend. Our goal for this exercise we will place short-term resistance in the second round of 3,383 weekly.

On the other hand, the Momentum indicator and range are showing oversold, signaling a possible rebound.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 22, 2011

AUD/USD is developing potential impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0379. Within this wave there are two subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with corrective subwave B still developing from 0.9861. The latter also has its subwaves - A, B, and C (colored red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave 4 is developing from 1.0218. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0379-0.9861, and expansions off 0.9861-1.0027-0.9883, 0.9883-1.0218-1.0051.
Resistances:
- 1.0258-68 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .786 retracement
- 1.0318 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0386 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9883-1.0218, and expansions off 1.0379-0.9861-1.0218.
Supports:
- 1.0051 = .50 ret
- 1.0011 = .618 ret
- 0.9955 = .786 ret
- 0.9898 = COP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at the specified supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For December 22nd / 2011

[img]http://forex-images.instaforex.com/userfiles/20111221/Analisa_Forex_EU_22-12-2011.JPG[/img[
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Breakout BUY Level : 1.3102.
Strong Resistance : 1.3094.
Original Resistance : 1.3082.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3070.
Target Inner Area : 1.3039.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3008.
Original Support : 1.2996
Strong Support : 1.2983.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.2976.

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2996 and 1.3082 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.2983 and 1.3094 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.2976 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.3102 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3008 and 1.3070 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.3039 level.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 22, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 119.31. Within this wave there are A, B, and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), with potential subwave С still developing from 120.23. Within the latter there are A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-122.64-120.23, 120.23-121.08-120.36, 120.36-122.52-121.92.
Resistances:
- 122.59 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 123.25-28 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 retracement
- 123.56 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 120.36-122.52.
Supports:
- 121.69 = .382 retracement
- 121.44 = .50 ret
- 121.19 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-20 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at the specified supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, December, 22 / 2011


The dollar resumed its strength throughout the currency market, before seeking refuge from big investors.

Both France and Italy will issue debt next week, and this is a sign of concern in the markets, since it is not known for sure who will echo these emissions.

In principle, there should be an increase in the risk premium paid by both countries but are constant warnings from rating agencies about the possibility of reduction of the debt note not only of these two nations, but the rest of Europe.

In this context, the European currencies vary in wide ranges of prices, not strange to see the euro falling from its peak on Wednesday, when it touched 1.32, the current 1.3060, which puts you at a level very close to changing short-term trend if 1.3025 support break.

The pound sterling, which has remained stable in recent weeks, has a similar behavior to the euro at the time. Course was affected by two macro data, a negative (whose current account balance deficit rose in November), and a positive (small increase in the revised third quarter GDP). The 0.6% increase in GDP completes three consecutive quarters of growth, albeit very modest to the British economy away from the ghost of the recession.

Therefore, although the loser gave it to David Cameron at the summit of European leaders two weeks ago will have been so? Or was it the one that won? AND CONSCIOUS: anyone remember that at that summit nearly refound the European continent?

In the U.S. session will be announced Thursday at 8:30 Eastern, weekly unemployment requests, and the second revision of GDP in the third quarter. In this regard, no significant changes are expected and much less impact on the markets, except that the published figure is different from the 2.5% growth posted 30 days ago.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/AUD Bullish Outlook, December 22, 2011 (Monthly and Yearly Strategy)






The pair euro-Australian dollar falls so unusually sharp, from 01 dicembre 2008 recording its maximum at 2.1027 and two years after reaching its minimum of 1.2930, after there be in the range of 1000 pips to 1.4000 by time of year,
The 1.2930 level was a key that prevented the fall of par, yesterday registered a minimum at 1.2857, showing that the pair has a good long way to fall to the level of 1.2082. This is one of the most aggressive major trends in the markets, certainly in the context of serial weakening outside the eurozone following the debt crisis on the continent, and the good standing of the Australian economy as well as the large gap in interest rates, which was expanded in recent years in favor of Australia.

What is very interesting to discover that the pair has not registered even a small technical correction throughout the large drop. We have good reason to believe that there is a possibility that such a correction would get started already in the short term, following the temporary solution and the relative calm in the European debt problem, forecasts predict that it will reduce the gap interest rates between the two countries. It is assumed that even the smallest correction should push the pair to the resistance of $ 1.5350 per euro Australians. It is possible to condition the purchase stance in breaking the support line that accompanies the pair, around 1.3050 and can serve as a trigger for purchase. If the pair does not check that level continues to fall rapidly and can take position of a buy order at 1.2250 long term.

Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 27, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 119.31. Within this wave there are A, B, and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), with subwave С still developing from 120.23. Within the latter there are 2 subwaves (colored magenta in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-122.64-120.23, 120.23-122.71-121.54.
Resistances:
- 123.07 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.28 = .50 retracement
- 123.56 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 120.23-122.71, and expansions off 122.71-121.54-121.92.
Supports:
- 121.47 = .50 ret
- 121.20-18 = confluence area of COP and .618 ret
- 120.75 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (30-40 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at the specified supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 27, 2011

AUD/USD is developing potential impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0379. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with potential impulse subwave С developing from 1.0218. The latter also has its subwaves - A, B, and C (colored red in the chart). The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9883-1.0218, and expansions off 1.0218-1.0051-1.0180, 1.0180-1.0130-1.0172.
Supports:
- 1.0122 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0091 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0077 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0051-41 = confluence area of .50 retracement and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0013-11 = confluence area of OP and .618 ret
If the price keeps advancing the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0379-0.9861, and expansions off 0.9861-1.0218-1.0051, 1.0051-1.0180-1.0130.
Resistances:
- 1.0210 = COP
- 1.0259 = OP
- 1.0268-72 = confluence area of .786 ret and COP
- 1.0339 = XOP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the specified resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation December 28, 2011


Lately the GBP/USD formed a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern after hiting the resistance level at 1.5770.
Since then the pair has been moving sideways inside the marked channels on the chart.
The Yellow channel is slightly bearish while the violet & blue ones are bullish.
Today at earlier time the pair broke the violet channel to the downside indicating bearish domination.
Now the pair is testing the backside of the broken channel & the upper limit of the yellow bearish channel indicating a bearish opportunity at 1.5690.
SL should be placed above 1.5720 & TP at 1.5645, 1.5600 then 1.5560.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com