Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 28, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 119.31. Within this wave there are A, B, and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), with subwave С still developing from 120.23. Within the latter there are 2 subwaves (colored magenta in the chart). The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-122.64-120.23, 120.23-122.71-121.54, 121.54-122.21-121.65.
Resistances:
- 122.06 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.32 = objective point (OP)
- 122.73 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.07 = COP
- 123.28 = .50 retracement
- 123.56 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 120.23-122.71, and expansions off 122.71-121.54-121.92.
Supports:
- 121.47 = .50 ret
- 121.20-18 = confluence area of COP and .618 ret
- 120.75 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-25 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at the specified supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, December, 28 / 2011


The currency market movements remains largely in these hours, a stillness that has held since last Friday, on the eve of the feast of Christmas.

The major pairs have no definite trends in the short term, allowing a glimpse of intraday positions, and paradoxically, only the yen, which is the currency has moved less this year, which is providing some small rally, if bullish.

European stock markets operate with a 1% gain on average, just over the south, while Dow Jones futures are slightly bullish before the opening of the NYSE.

This pause that has taken the currency market is not free: usually, after them, are generated very strong movements that define medium-term trends. In principle, the dollar could benefit from the coming currency movements, given that the European currencies, particularly the euro and Swiss franc, still pointing downwards in the long term.

The two most important are related currencies, gold and oil, this time presented in an uneven performance. While the falls from $ 1600 an ounce and traded at $ 1585 at the time, tending slightly bearish in the short term, the WTI barrel exceeds $ 100, without much force pushing the Canadian dollar, but with little effect on other currencies bound by it, the Mexican peso, which has not been away from the 14 per dollar.

No economic data for the next hours, the expectation goes through the U.S. session opening, which can bring some movement to foreign exchange.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for December 29, 2011

AUD/USD is now moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 1.0379. On smaller timeframes this wave consists of three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with potential impulse subwave С still developing from 1.0218. The latter also contains smaller waves (colored magenta in the chart). We calculate the targets below using Fibonacci retracements of 0.9883-1.0218, and expansions off 1.0752-0.9663-1.0379, 1.0379-0.9861-1.0218, 1.0218-1.0051-1.0202.
Supports:
- 1.0040-35 = confluence area of .50 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 0.9997 = .618 ret
- 0.9937-32 = confluence area of .786 ret and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9898 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0202-1.0044.
Resistances:
- 1.0104 = .382 ret
- 1.0123 = .50 ret
- 1.0142 = .618 ret
- 1.0168 = .786 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis & Trade Recommendation December 29, 2011


Yesterday we suggested selling GBP/USD currency pair at 1.5690 which hit all TP levels very quickly.
Now retracement is expected after visiting the lower limit of the marked bearish channels at 1.5435 which was slightly breached shortly before the pair came back above.
Now the pair is testing the upper limit of the violet channel at 1.5485 which if broken will open the way for a retracement movement targetting 1.5555.
Based on the previous analysis, the marked indicates a bullish opportunity on the break of 1.5485 with TP at 1.5510, 1.5540, 1.5566 then 1.5595.
SL should be 1H closure below 1.5440.


Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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USD/CHF: Technical Analysis for December 29 -- 30, 2011


Overview:

USD/CHF:
It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 0.955 -- 0.917 and the price has been set above strong support at the levels of 0.9227 / 0.9173 (0.9173: 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4chart). Aswell it is noting that these levels are coinciding between 61.8% and 100% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart and the pair has already formed a strong resistance at this level of 0.955 and it is now approaching from it in order to test it. Therefore the Swissy will be a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall looks is not corrective, in order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.955 for that it will a good sign to sell below 0.955 with a first target of 0.943 and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 0.9331. Furthermore, it also have to note that the price at 0.9227 will be possible formed a strong support (0.9173: 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart). So it will be saturation around 1.918 to rebound the pair, aswell it will probably that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.918 with a first target of 0.93 and continue towards 0.943.

Performed by Mourad El Keddani, Analytical exper
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 2, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71. This wave is confirmed since the price broke below 119.31 (top of wave A). Within this wave we have four subwaves (colored red in the chart), and potential subwave 4 is developing from 119.21. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 122.71-119.21, 122.21-119.21.
Resistances:
- 120.36 = .382 retracement
- 120.55 = .382 ret
- 120.71 = .50 ret
- 120.96 = .50 ret
- 121.06 = .618 ret
If the price breaks below 119.21, subwave 5 will continue. The targets of the downmove will be Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-121.54-122.21, 122.21-119.21-119.99.
Supports:
- 118.14 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 117.80 = COP
- 116.99 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 2, 2011

AUD/USD broke above 1.0218 and is developing potential wave C of medium term uptrend from 0.9861 (colored light green in the chart), this wave will be confirmed when the price breaks above 1.0379. On smaller timeframes this wave has three subwaves - A, B and C (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0044. The tragets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9663-1.0379-0.9861, 0.9861-1.0218-1.0044.
Resistances:
- 1.0265 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0303 = COP
- 1.0401 = objective point (OP)
If the price continues its decline the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0044-1.0268.
Supports:
- 1.0182 = .382 retracement
- 1.0145 = .50 ret
- 1.0130 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up, it's preferable to try long positions until the price breaks below 1.0138 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 3, 2011

GBP/JPY is moving down within impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71. Within this wave we have five subwaves (colored red in the chart), and subwave 5 is developing from 119.99. The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-121.54-122.21, 122.21-119.21-119.99.
Supports:
- 118.14 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 117.80 = COP
- 116.99 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.71-118.94.
Resistances:
- 120.38 = .382 retracement
- 120.82 = .50 ret
- 121.27 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-20 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 3, 2011

AUD/USD broke above 1.0268 and now is moving within a potential wave C of a medium term uptrend from 0.9861 (colored light green in the chart). Confirmation of this wave is a breakout above 1.0379. As for subwaves, we have A, B and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave C is developing from 1.0044. Within this wave we have still smaller A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 1.0197. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9663-1.0379-0.9861, 0.9861-1.0218-1.0044, 1.0044-1.0268-1.0197.
Resistances:
- 1.0303 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0335 = COP
- 1.0401 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0421 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0044 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up, it's preferable to try long positions until the price breaks below 1.0197 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (20-25 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-60 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, January 3, 2012


During the first working day of the year the new markets return to their normal condition on Tuesday, this greatly promotes the leading currencies and mostly the American dollar.


The dollar experienced weak trend during first hours of session and fell on all fronts, especially against the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc. The same thing happened to the Australian dollar and to the Canadian dollar.
The news about jobs in Germany, particularly the changes in number of people unemployed for December 2011, triggered the upward movement of the euro, which was accompanied by other major currencies.
Meanwhile, when averaging the European session on Tuesday, the stocks of the old continent showed mixed results. The DAX 30 gained 0.8%, while other major indices fell on the average by 0.6%.


As for the Dow Jones, the index futures were rising opening the week that has left an important gap and it will probably be covered within the next few hours, and at the American session.


Indeed, at 10:00 the publication of the ISM manufacturing in the United States is expected, and at 2:15 the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which took place last month, will be announced.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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Wave Analysis of EUR/USD for January 3, 2012






Analysis of the wave marking:
Due to the holidays season yesterday’s session EUR/USD overall wave stance did not alter significantly. Thus the price moved in a very narrow price range above the rate of the 29th figure. Meanwhile the formed wave structure still allows for a possible development of the marked prolonged upside correction as well as a chance for the pair to renew the decline to the next target rate for the 3rd wave (in the 5th) which corresponds to the mark of 1.2760-1.2750. At the same time we should pay attention to that if this target is hit in the nearest future the inner wave marking of the 5th wave in the 3rd would probably need to be slightly adjusted.

The targets of the correctional movement:
1.3023 – 161.8% Fibo
1.3080 – 127.2% Fibo

The targets for the 3rd wave in the 5th:
1.2858 – 261.8% Fibo

General recommendations:
On Tuesday the correction continues amid the decline over the last two days of 2011.
The fact that the price is still within the declining range points at the continuation of the downfalling trends’ part. The current situation is that the inner wave marking of the assumed third wave in the fifth is ambiguous and hardly possible. That is why uncertainty is high regarding not only the direction of the trend but the wave marking of this movement.
The MACD divergence indicates a possible rebound from the current levels in the direction of new lows and in particular to 1.2858, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibo/ on the other hand, the exit from a narrower declining range can complicate the current correction in the direction to 1.3080, that corresponds to 127.2% Fibo.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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