Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 28, 2010

Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is moving further to the parity level after it failed to break through the resistance level of 1.0212. However, the pair is expected to bounce up near strong support level of 1.0000 that is also a bottom of a broader range.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0290 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0380. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
Nevertheless, the breakout of the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach 0.9930.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866. 

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Candlestick analysis of the GBP/USD for December 28, 2010

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is bouncing off after a drop to 1.5355. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bearish as the downtrend still remains. Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, December 27, 2010
Asian stock markets opened the new trading week on a positive note due to a rise in interest rates in China over the weekend. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange rose by 0.8%, the Seoul exchange rose by 0.1%, Singapore climbed by 0.9%, Taiwan ascended by 0.5%, the Shanghai exchange rose by 0.7%, while the stock exchanges of Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and the Philippines were closed for Christmas.

As we mentioned, this Saturday the Chinese central bank announced that it would raise the interest rate for the second time running, after inflation in the country had risen to the second highest level in the last two years, due to predictions by the government that inflation would accelerate in the first half of 2011. The central bank raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.81% after having raised it for the first time in almost three years on October 19th.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, last Thursday the Department of Commerce announced that the volume of orders on non-perishable goods in the United States declined in November by 1.3% as compared to economists' predictions of a more moderate 0.5% decline. Furthermore, the Department stated that the amount of new unemployment claims in the United States had declined by 3,000 to a level of 420 thousand, as predicted by economists. Furthermore, the volume of new house sales in the United States had expanded last months by 5.5% as compared to October, to an annualized rate of 290 thousand homes. The rise was more moderate than predicted by economists, who predicted annualized rate of 300 thousand homes. The macroeconomic schedule for this week will be sparse due to Christmas celebrations around the globe.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD. Opportunities to buy, For December 27, 2010 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/USD

The pound continues showing weakness against the dollar, though in the last two trading days the pair appears to have stabilized after running up against the powerful support level around 1.5400, stemming from the combination of the pair's 200-day moving average and the Fibonacci level, which, between them, have succeeded in braking the sharp decline that had been typical of the couple during the last week and a half.

In most cases, a 200-day moving average forms a bottom when a pair is not able to breach it. Adding the relatively positive sentiment on the financial market and the strong positive deviation of the MACD indicator forms a buy opportunity on the pair on a relatively low price due to the positive market atmosphere. It is possible to enter a buy deal on the present prices with two exit goals, the first at 1.5560 and the second at 1.5780 United States dollars for one British pound.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For December 27, 2010

_____WEEKLY______

Weekly - R3 = 1.5783

Weekly - R2 = 1.5680

Weekly - R1 = 1.5562

Weekly Pivot = 1.5459

Weekly - S1 = 1.5341

Weekly - S2 = 1.5238

Weekly - S3 = 1.5120







_____MONTHLY______

Monthly - R3 = 1.6895

Monthly - R2 = 1.6597

Monthly - R1 = 1.6079

Monthly Pivot = 1.5781

Monthly - S1 = 1.5263

Monthly - S2 = 1.4965

Monthly - S3 = 1.4447





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com


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The GBP/USD wave analysis for December 27, 2010








Moving in a very narrow price corridor the GBP/USD has closed near the upper line of the local downtrend that has been developing since December 15. Thus, the pair has probably continued the formation of inner wave structure of the 2nd in the 3rd (future C). The option of pound further downside movement could be preemptive if it was not for the MACD divergence that give advantage to the British currency in the medium term.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com




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The EUR/USD wave analysis for December 27, 2010









On the edge of the holidays the EUR/USD has been almost flat and the price has been moving along the line near the level of the 31 figure. At the same time the euro is most likely to be in the limits of the 2nd wave in the 3rd (5th), that has been forming in the new section of the downtrend developing after December 14th. However, it is quite difficult to estimate further market behavior. Although, the dollar has certain advantage in the current situation.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010






More analysis - at instaforex.com

Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 29, 2010

Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has dropped to support level near 0.9980-1.0000, to rebound further. Most of 2010 this level demonstrated substantial demand since Canadian companies tend to buy dollars for lower price. As mentioned before, the breakout of support level at 0.99880 will allow this pair to reach 0.9930.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866. 

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 29, 2010


GBP/JPY is moving within subwave A (colored red in the chart) of wave 5 (colored magenta) of medium term downtrend. Within subwave A there are four waves of still smaller degree - colored orange red in the chart. Wave 4 is still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.99-126.10.

Resistances:

- 126.82 = .382 retracement, already hit (!)
- 127.04 = .50 ret
- 127.27 = .618 ret

If the price continues the downtrend the nearest supports will be expansions off 135.03-126.43-134.19, 134.19-129.33-133.03, 133.03-130.75-131.61 (waves 1-2), 131.61-127.43-128.54 (waves 3-4), 128.54-127.34-127.99 (subwaves A-B).

Supports:

- 126.05 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 125.96 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.64-59 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP)
- 125.17 = XOP


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator. The overbought area is 15-20 pips away from the current price and now the oscillator is above the zero level. So 126.82 is the level to watch for topping signals to enter short positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 29, 2010

This currency pair is now moving within subwave 5 (colored magenta in the chart) of wave C of daily degree (the wave and expansions off A-B waves are colored royal blue in the chart). Within subwave 5 there are still smaller waves (colored orange red in the chart) A-B-C and corrective wave 4 developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9990-1.0151 and 1.0013-1.0151.

Supports:

- 1.0089-82 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements - already hit (!)
- 1.0071-66 = confluence area of .60 and .618 retracements
- 1.0052 = .618 ret

If the price continues the uptrend and breaks above 1.0151 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9833-0.9930-0.9843 (waves 1-2), 0.9843-1.0069-0.9990 (waves 3-4), and 0.9990-1.0060-1.0013 (subwaves A-B within wave 5).

Resistances:

- 1.0196 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0216 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The zero level is just within some 5 pips away from the current price, the oversold area is 15-20 pips away from the current price - and corresponds to 1.0089 support.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD candlestick analysis for December 29, 2010

On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is still in downtrend. Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
Nevertheless, if the resistance level at 1.5650 is broken, it is recommended to close short positions as it will lead to an increase to 1.5900.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CHF candlestick analysis for December 29, 2010

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has successfully broken through the support level at 0.9500. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9500 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9400 with 0.9350 as the next traget.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9669 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 30, 2010

The GBP/JPY is moving within corrective subwave B (colored red in the chart) of wave 5 (colored magenta) of medium term downtrend. The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.99-126.09 and 128.54-126.09.

Resistances:

- 126.82 = .382 retracement
- 127.03-04 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 127.26-32 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements
- 127.60 = .618 ret

If the downtrend continues and the price breaks below 126.09 the nearest supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 135.03-126.43-134.19, 134.19-129.33-133.03, 133.03-130.75-131.61 (waves 1-2), 131.61-127.43-128.54 (waves 3-4).

Supports:

- 125.96 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 125.64-59 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and objective point (OP)
- 125.17 = XOP


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down but current wave up is corrective it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator and a Fib resistance to consider shorts. The overbought area is 25-35 pips away from the current price. So 126.82 and 127.03-04 are the levels to watch for topping signals to enter short positions.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD technical analysis for December 30, 2010


Support levels: 0.9980, 0.9930, 0.9820
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is testing the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 again. Most of 2010 this level demonstrated substantial demand since Canadian companies tend to buy dollars for lower price. As mentioned before, the breakout of support level at 0.99880 will allow this pair to reach 0.9930.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
In the midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend with 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com