Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

USD/JPY technical analysis for May 16, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair has stopped its growth after a break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6.
Earlier the USD/JPY currency pair formed candlestick combination Piercing line, indicating further upside movement.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair was declining for several days, but rebounded near the 79.60 level, which means that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
If the USD/JPY successfully tests the Fibonacci correction level 23.6, it will prove this viewpoint. In this case we should expect upside movement to 82.85-83.16 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located.
Further upside movement is also supported by the bullish candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which will probably strengthen the upside movement.
It is worth mentioning that if the 79.60 level gets broken, long positions should be closed as it will target the pair to 79.00.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD candlestick analysis for May 16, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD currency pair cannot yet break the support level near 0.7823. As mentioned before, if the resistance level 0.7973 is broken, it will target the pair to 0.8125. If it is successfully tested, a growth to 0.8200 should be expected.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect an upside movement to the 0.7660 level, following the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 break.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7823, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7740.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 16-20, 2011



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4725
Weekly - R2 = 1.4583
Weekly - R1 = 1.4350
Weekly Pivot = 1.4208
Weekly - S1 = 1.3975
Weekly - S2 = 1.3833
Weekly - S3 = 1.3600




_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5921
Monthly - R2 = 1.5401
Monthly - R1 = 1.5104
Monthly Pivot = 1.4584
Monthly - S1 = 1.4287
Monthly - S2 = 1.3767
Monthly - S3 = 1.3470





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 16-20, 2011



_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6797
Weekly - R2 = 1.1657
Weekly - R1 = 1.6426
Weekly Pivot = 1.6286
Weekly - S1 = 1.6055
Weekly - S2 = 1.5915
Weekly - S3 = 1.5684




_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7749
Monthly - R2 = 1.7247
Monthly - R1 = 1.6977
Monthly Pivot = 1.6475
Monthly - S1 = 1.6205
Monthly - S2 = 1.5703
Monthly - S3 = 1.5433





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 16-20, 2011


_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.1169
Weekly - R2 = 1.1028
Weekly - R1 = 1.0801
Weekly Pivot = 1.0660
Weekly - S1 = 1.0433
Weekly - S2 = 1.0292
Weekly - S3 = 1.0065






_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1895
Monthly - R2 = 1.1436
Monthly - R1 = 1.1203
Monthly Pivot = 1.0744
Monthly - S1 = 1.0511
Monthly - S2 = 1.0052
Monthly - S3 = 0.9819




Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at

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USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 16-20, 2011



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 82,56
Weekly - R2 = 81,96
Weekly - R1 = 81,38
Weekly Pivot = 80,78
Weekly - S1 = 80,20
Weekly - S2 = 79,60
Weekly - S3 = 79,02




_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 88.65
Monthly - R2 = 87.10
Monthly - R1 = 84.16
Monthly Pivot = 82.61
Monthly - S1 = 79.67
Monthly - S2 = 78.12
Monthly - S3 = 75.18





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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EUR/USD wave analysis for May 16, 2011







During the previous week the EUR/USD trading was limited by the correction scenario

developing since May 4 from the 1.4940 level. At the same time, the price dynamically

formed the b wave of this correction and continued the downside movement within the range

of the c wave in the estimated 4th, in the 3rd or C. If so, the decline might develop in

the direction of the 40 figure level or the 1.3740 level, which coincides with the parity

of the waves a and c.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 17, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored red in the chart) that is part of impulse wave C of larger degree - colored magenta in the chart. The latter is also part of wave C of still larger degree - colored royal blue in the chart.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 134.02-130.26, 133.15-130.26, and expansions off 130.26-131.22-130.50, 130.50-131.48-130.72.
Resistances:
- 131.46 = objective point (OP)
- 131.70 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements, and OP
- 132.05-14 = .618 and .50 retracements and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 132.31 = XOP
- 132.58 = .618 ret
If the price reverses down and breaks below 130.26 the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03, 137.03-130.89-134.02, 134.02-131.79-133.15.
Supports:
- 130.23 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.00 = objective point (OP)
- 129.54 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 129.15 = .618 ret
- 127.88 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 17, 2011

AUD/USD broke below 1.0536 and confirmed wave C of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. On smaller scale this wave consists of A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart), and wave C that may be over now. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9709-1.1011, and expansions off 1.1011-1.0536-1.0888, 1.0888-1.0566-1.0716, 1.0716-1.0512-1.0642.
Supports:
- 1.0516 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0438 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0413 = OP
- 1.0394 = OP
- 1.0360 = .50 ret
- 1.0312 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0206 = .618 ret
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0888-1.0512.
Resistances:
- 1.0656 = .382 retracement
- 1.0700 = .50 ret
- 1.0744 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices), or hits a Fib resistance at 1.0656 (.382 retracement).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD technical analysis for May 17, 2011

The GBP/USD currency pair cannot break the support level at 1.6164. Earlier in a daily graph the GBP/USD formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating a bearish signal.
This candlestick was formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6750, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
The break of 1 the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect downside movement with a target at 0.6164. Its break will allow it to reach the support level 1.5932, where the Fibonacci 61.8 correction level is also located. At the same time, break of the 1.6300 level will probably cause a slight consolidation.
It is worth mentioning that stop orders should be placed slightly above the 1.6517 level as a break of this resistance will target the pair to 1.6750.
[img]http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110516/Picture%208.png

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/JPY technical analysis for May 17, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is demonstrating sideways movement after a break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6.
Earlier the USD/JPY currency pair formed candlestick combination Piercing line, indicating further upside movement.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair was declining for several days, but rebounded near the 79.60 level, which means that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
If the USD/JPY successfully tests the Fibonacci correction level 23.6, it will prove this viewpoint. In this case we should expect upside movement to 82.85-83.16 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located.
Further upside movement is also supported by the bullish candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which will probably strengthen the upside movement.
It is worth mentioning that if the 79.60 level gets broken, long positions should be closed as it will target the pair to 79.00.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for May 17, 2011

The EUR/GBP currency pair has found demand again while declining to 0.8668, but it is still unable to fixate above the resistance level 0.8740. Earlier in a daily graph the EUR/GBP formed a Long Shadows candlestick indicating further downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick shows that earlier the EUR/GBP pair made a strong upside movement after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 0.8300. However, it reversed near the 0.9000 level. This means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
The divergence on the RSI and the MACD supports the downside movement.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned earlier, if the Fibonacci 38.2 correction level is successfully tested, we should expect downside movement with a target at 0.8650 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located. Its break will target the pair to the next support level 0.8350.
It is worth mentioning that stop orders should be placed slightly above the resistance level 0.9050 as its break will target the pair to 0.9160.
In the medium term , the rollback from 0.8067 is completed with 3 waves at 0.9041. Current correction means the decline from the 0.9799 (2008 high) is continuing with a target to refresh lows below 0.8067. Break of the support level 0.8650 will prove this point of view and lead to downside movement to 0.8284. Its break will target the pair to 0.8067.
Nevertheless, break of the resistance level 0.9050 will denote that the short-term correction from 0.9799 is completed with 3 waves at 0.8067. In this case, the long-term downtrend initiated in 2000 will be probably continued to refresh highs above 0.9799.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook May 17, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







The oil price is consolidating between the levels of 96.50 to 99.80, so it has not yet

defined exactly if it continued its downtrend in the short term, or retake its upward trend

long term.


The first portion can by bought now and strengthened later by an additional portion in the

event that the price of oil breaks through the nearby resistance rate at 99.80 dollars or

close above the weekly pivot line. Exists another possibility that oil prices continue

their downward sequence, therefore a rebound by the level of monthly support around 95.30

would be an attractive opportunity to buy long term.

The price of oil is expected to easily rise above the resistance level of 108,00 dollars

and perhaps go even higher than that.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com




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GOLD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 17-20, 2011



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1570,56
Weekly - R2 = 1548,73
Weekly - R1 = 1522,06
Weekly Pivot = 1500,23
Weekly - S1 = 1473,56
Weekly - S2 = 1451,53
Weekly - S3 = 1425,06


_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1774,00
Monthly - R2 = 1671,80
Monthly - R1 = 11617,30
Monthly Pivot = 1515,10
Monthly - S1 = 1460,60
Monthly - S2 = 1358,40
Monthly - S3 = 1303,90


Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com







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USD/CHF wave analysis for May 17, 2011





In general, as expected, the USD/CHF currency pair could not resume the growth of the price

that had declined by 1.5 figures from Friday’s highs during yesterday trading. At the same

time, given the testing of the 88 figure level we might suppose that such decline is

developing in relation with the uptrend section formed May 4-11. If so, there is a

possibility that the pair would initiate a continuous horizontal correction.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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EUR/USD wave analysis for May 17, 2011





Despite the fact that yesterday the EUR/USD currency pair could not continue the downside

movement and moved two figures away from the reached lows, the whole estimated 3rd wave (or

C) does not look complete at the moment. If so, the price should form the 5th wave in this

3rd (or C). At the same time, a possible target of such decline might be the correction

level 61.8% that coincides with the 40 figure level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com