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Westpac cuts AUD/USD year-end forecast to 0.66 from 0.70








FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac cuts AUD/USD year-end forecast to 0.66 from 0.70, with Westpac chief economist Bill Evans noting that "doesn't expect confidence "vibe" around AUD to improve for remainder of this year."


Additional headlines - Bloomberg


Negative market perceptions around China and Australia's trade exposure to China are likely to persist


Sees EM woes continuing


Financial markets remaining volatile






Sep 08,2015
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NZD/USD testing highs near 0.6280 post China data








FXStreet (Mumbai) - The New Zealand dollar stages a minor pullback versus its American rival in the mid-Asian session, with NZD/USD moving away from fresh six and a half year lows struck at 0.7241 on Monday.


NZD/USD lifted on China trade data


Currently, the NZD/USD pair trades 0.31% higher at fresh session highs near 0.6280. The Kiwi extends its recovery from multi-year trough as the NZD bulls were offered some respite following an upward revision to the NZ CPI while upbeat Chinese trade figures also lent a helping hand.


Statistics New Zealand found a processing error in its March quarter CPI data, which saw the first quarter CPI change revised up from -0.3% to -0.2%. While China’s trade surplus expanded in August with exports falling less than expectations. China is New Zealand’s top export destination.


Meanwhile, markets now await the US labour markets conditions data with the US traders returning after a long weekend. Besides, Thursday’s RBNZ cash rate statement will be also closely watched as markets widely anticipate a rate cut in order to counter the effects of the recent China fears.


NZD/USD Levels to consider


To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.6306 (Sept 7 High) levels and above which it could extend gains 0.6373 (Sept 2 High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.6241 (Sept 7 Low) below that at 0.6200 (early 2009 levels).




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China trade data spooks Asia, German trade balance, EZ GDP – Up next






FXStreet (Mumbai) - The safe haven assets such as yen, euro, gold, Swiss franc etc. were caught by fresh bid waves as the latest Chinese trade figures added to the persisting negative sentiment surrounding China’s economy, dampening investors’ sentiment.


Key headlines in Asia


Australia: Aug business confidence deteriorates, conditions edge up

China Aug trade surplus up, imports collapse


China: Yuan likely to strengthen, no sizable devaluation on cards – Macquarie


Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD


A volatile Asian session with Chinese equities extending their sell-off from Monday as a renewed wave of risk-aversion caught the markets following the release of weak Chinese trade figures.


The Japanese yen erased losses and swung higher versus the US dollar as risk-off sentiment gained momentum amid falling Chinese stocks post the dismal Chinese economic news which revealed that although the country’s surplus widened, the exports and imports remained weak. USD/JPY dropped sharply lower below 119 handle.


While the Antipodeans seem to be unaffected by the ongoing risk-off trades as the Australian dollar remains lifted on the back of improved business conditions. National Australia Bank's (NAB) Business Conditions Index surged from 6 in July to 11 last month, the strongest reading since October, where a reading above zero signals an improvement in conditions.


While the Kiwi also tracks the Aussie higher and rebounds from fresh six and a half year lows, still keeping range below 0.63 handle as markets remain cautious ahead of Chinese CPI and RBNZ cash rate statement due later this week for further direction. While an upward revision to the NZ CPI data also supports the NZD/USD pair.


Meanwhile, the sell-off in the Asian indices extends as Chinese equities led other Asian markets lower post China data with the Japan’s benchmark index, the Nikkei dropping -1.72% at 17550. While the Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index trades -0.25% down at 20,546 and the Shanghai Composite keeps falling and now trades -1.38% lower at 3038. While Korea's benchmark Kospi index trades -0.70% at 1,870 points in Seoul. However, the benchmark Australian S&P/ASX 200 bucked the trend and rallies over 1% to 5,089.


Heading into Europe - centered on EUR, GBP


The coming week will be occupied by waiting for these events, as the glimpse on the macro calendar reveals only some low-profile prints.


In the session ahead, Germany will reveal its July current account figures and the headline gauge is projected to decrease to €21.5 billion, down from the €24.4 billion seen previously. Both exports and imports are projected to show stronger figures - 1.4% and 0.5% growth month-on-month respectively, up from the 1.0% and 0.5% dip seen in June.


Later in the day, Eurostat will show its final Q2 GDP data. The preliminary figures missed estimates, as they said that the 19-country euro area grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period for a 1.2% growth year-on-year.


Looking ahead, the US calendar also remains data-light with the 2nd tier release in the labor market conditions index to be reported.


All of these prints, however, are of lesser significance and most likely won't cause any major reaction on the markets.




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Germany Current Account n.s.a. down to €23.4B in July from previous €24.4B






FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.




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AUD/USD rallies and breaks away from hourly 50 SMA








FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD had been pressuring the hourly 50 SMA to the upside on the Glencore news, but it is breaking even higher on the 10-minute sticks after a mixed NAB's business confidence.


The business conditions in Australia have improved during August to 11 from 6 in July, while business confidence dropped back coming at 1 vs 4 in July. AUD/USD was making a low of 0.6933, but has rallied to 0.6965 and away from the 50 SMA. The next set of data with come from China's trade data while Chinese stock markets were indicated to be opening negative 0.8% in the Shanghai Composite.


AUD/USD levels


To the upside, this break of the 50 SMA on the hourly chart brings in last week's high of 0.7062 as a target. To the downside, 0.6500 may have psychological importance, looking back on the longer-term charts, there are very little technicals until 0.6000. 0.6850 guards 0.6774 June 2004 low then 0.6280 2009 March lows and also 0.6122/.6010, the 2008 lows.




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USD/CHF retracement toward 0.9540 looks likely – SG






FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to technical analysts from Societe Generale, the USD/CHF is undergoing a consolidation within a triangle, the upper limit of the formation at 0.99 - 1.00 is likely to provide resistance and from there a retracement looks likely towards 0.9540 and even towards 0.9260.


Key Quotes:


“The USD/CHF has been undergoing consolidation since March within a pattern similar to a triangle (current limits at 0.99/1.00 and 0.9260).The pair is approaching the upper limit which also corresponds to a multiyear descending trend resistance (log scale). “


“With the daily stochastic indicator approaching resistance levels, 0.99/1.00 is likely to be a key level. Only a sustained move higher will mean an extension in uptrend. Once these levels are achieved, a retracement looks more likely initially towards 0.9540 and even the lower limit at 0.9260.”




Sep 11,2015
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AUD/USD upside running into tough resistance






FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has scored some space above the 50 SMA at 0.7065 and is looking for a close in positive territory for the week, having made highs yesterday at 0.7099.


AUD/USD has staged a minor recovery on the start of the month's downtrend and lows that were down to test the resilience of the bulls at the 0.69 handle. The Australian jobs data and Chinese CPI's supported the Aussie towards the end of the week after a spell of disappointments for the Australian economy over the past few weeks having gained about 2% and ostensibly helped by the stabilization of Chinese markets and higher copper and iron ore prices, as noted by analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.


AUD/USD rallies to find tough resistance at 0.7191


Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD is near term upside corrective and currently we would allow for a near term move higher to approximately 0.7165 (intraday Elliott count). "Rallies are expected to remain capped by the 0.7191 4 month downtrend and 0.7205 (last weeks high). The market will need to overcome the 0.7448 July 21 high in order to negate downside pressure longer term. Below 0.6980 will retarget the 0.6905 recent low and then 0.6774 the 2004 low longer term."





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AUD/JPY, the biggest gainer






FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/JPY rose more than 300 pips during the last five days and was among the most traded currency pairs the biggest gainer.


The aussie was the best performer boosted by an upbeat Australian employment report and a rally of the AUD/NZD. The yen dropped in the market ahead of the Federal Reserve week and amid some comments of more monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan.

AUD/JPY best week since November


The pair started the week testing multi-year lows but the 82.00 area offered again support. From there it started to rally and peaked on Thursday at 85.89, hitting a 1-week high.


The pair is about to end the week trading at 85.40, 3.50% above the level it had a week ago; the best weekly result since the beginning of the year.





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GBP/JPY capped by 20 SMA






FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/JPY is consolidating, currently trading at 185.79 having been as a high as 186.88 with a low of 185.70.


The crosses in the Yen have been well placed on the bid with bullish gains instigated in risk-on recoveries that left the Yen exposed for the end of the week. The BoE's sanguine tone today on recent market volatility kept the pound supported also while we await next week's BoJ at a time when markets are starting to suspect that the Central Bank may be moving towards additions easing measures in response to the deteriorating outlook for growth and inflation in Japan.


GBP/JPY levels


Technically, GBP/JPY has started to consolidate the rising channel as MACD on the hourly starts to turn less negative and the 20 DMA caps the upside on the 186 handle. Downside levels are 185.50/80 and 185.00 guarding the 200 SMA at 183.89.




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Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -6.4% to -6.8% in August






FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.




Sep 14,2015
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