Thread: OcaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

NZD: Commodity price index posts first gain in six months – Deutsche Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Darren Gibbs, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, notes that the ANZ index of prices for New Zealand’s main commodity exports rose 5.5% mom in September in world price terms – the first increase since March.

Key Quotes

“As expected the increase was led by the dairy sector (average prices rising 15.1% mom), with partially offsetting contributions from price declines for meat, horticultural, forestry and seafood commodities.”

“The index was still down 18.2% yoy but should show some further improvement in October as rising dairy prices continue to feed through. With the NZ dollar weakening in September the NZD-denominated index rose 9.3% mom and was 2.7% higher than a year earlier.”






Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

EUR: ECB’s rate reductions can lower long-term yields – Goldman Sachs



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Goldman Sach’s, suggest that the policy rate instrument in the Euro area has a sizeable impact on long-end rates, especially in the current environment of forward guidance and the ECB rate reductions can lower long-term yields as a supplement to QE (even if further rate cuts are not our base case expectation).

Key Quotes

“Our estimated impact on the 10-year swap rate from a 100bp monetary policy shock rises from around 55bp-65bp to 75bp-100bp when we consider the period since July 2013, where ECB forward guidance has been in place.13 Hence, central bank communication may enhance the effect of monetary policy shocks on long-term rates.”

“The ECB may wish to ease further on the back of falling oil prices, which are dragging down headline inflation and longer-term inflation expectations, and concerns about weakening global EM demand. A 10bp reduction in the deposit rate – and assuming this lowers the 2-year swap rate by a similar amount – would, on our estimate, imply a fall in the 10-year risk free rate in Europe of about 7bp-10bp. A 30bp cut (to -0.50%14) would imply a 20bp-30bp reduction in the 10-year risk free rate.”

“In comparison, 10-year risk free rates fell around 10bp during the ECB press conference on January 22 when QE was announced.5 This suggests that even a 10bp deposit rate cut may be a non-negligible supplement to ECB QE. Of course, given that overnight rates in the Euro area are already negative, the scope to reduce short-term policy rates is limited.”






Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

EUR/USD forecast: all eyes on US Payrolls – Commerzbank and Rabobank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is trading on the softer side on Friday, hovering over the 1.1170 area ahead of US Payrolls for the month of September (203K exp.).

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued spot “has managed to bounce off the 55 day ma at 1.1152 today. The rally will ideally terminate 1.1184/1.1200 and the risk remains for a re-visit of the current September lows at 1.1105/1.1088. Failure at 1.1088 would trigger a move to 2015 uptrend at 1.0968.This remains a key break down point”.

Furthermore, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley added “a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on September 24 strengthened the odds in favour of a rate hike from the FOMC by the end of the year, in line with our view. Simultaneously the market is speculating that the ECB may be prepared to increase its asset purchasing programme, potentially by the end of the year. In essence this re-establishes the theme of interest rate differentials bearing down on EUR/USD in the coming months and we have maintained our forecast that EUR/USD can head lower towards 1.08 on a 6-months view”.






Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

BOJ Preview: Status quo next week, but surprise can be in store – Goldman Sachs

FXStreet (Delhi) – Naohiko Baba, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, suggests that the research house maintains the base case of the BOJ’s additional easing on October 30, although they do not fully rule out the possibility of an earlier move next week.

Key Quotes

“We think Japan’s economy can narrowly escape a technical recession, but the current state of the economy is far below the BOJ’s outlook.”

“Expected inflation rates, on which the BOJ place large importance as a QQE transmission channel, have been on a downtrend almost across the board with the corporate outlook in the Tankan Survey providing the latest clear evidence, which run counter to Governor Kuroda’s assertions.”

“Without additional easing at all in October, we believe Mr. Kuroda’s commitment would be seen as wavering considerably, and this could prompt the market to drive a change.”







Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

US: World Bank warns against Fed lift-off – Deutsche Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Darren Gibbs, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the investor’s sentiment was dented by the recent statement from the World Bank President in which he warned against the consequences of Fed lift-off this year.

Key Quotes

“We suspect that market sentiment wasn’t helped by comments made by World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, who told CNBC that growth will be slow globally, especially in emerging markets, and argued that a Fed rate rise this year would have very serious negative effects for emerging markets. He went on to note that oil and gas producers were already in a terrible situation and that when and if Iranian production comes online he expects the price of oil and gas to fall another $10.”

“The overnight dataflow – which we discuss further below – didn’t provide strong direction. We do note that the Atlanta Fed’s ‘GDPNow’ estimate of Q3 GDP growth was cut in half to 0.9% saar, largely on the back of the very weak advance trade data released earlier in the week.”







Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

USD/CAD keeps the tight range near 1.3240

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar is extending its upbeat momentum vs. its American peer on Friday, with USD/CAD in a consolidative pattern near 1.3240.

USD/CAD focus on US Payrolls

After hitting fresh 11-year tops around 1.3460 on Wednesday, the pair has given away more than two big-figures as CAD keeps deriving support from the recent recovery in crude oil prices.

Spot will remain under pressure however, in light of the upcoming US Non-farm Payrolls due later. Prior surveys expect the domestic economy to have created 203K jobs during September vs. August’s 173K jobs.

USD/CAD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is now retreating 0.25% at 1.3234 facing the next support at 1.3176 (low Sep.21) ahead of 1.3160 (low Sep.16) and finally 1.3012 (low Sep.18). On the other hand, a break above 1.3271 (high Oct.2) would aim for 1.3334 (high Oct.1) and then 1.3412 (high Sep.30).







Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

UK construction output rose to 7-month high in September

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped to 59.9 in September from August’s 57.3.

Key Points

Volumes of new work rose at a robust pace in September. However, the latest increase was the slowest for five months.

Employment growth was sustained across the construction sector for the twenty-eighth month running in September.

The rate of input price inflation eased to a five-month low.









Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

USD/CHF upside bias persists – Commerzbank




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The positive stance remains well and sound around the pair, according to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“USD/CHF has this week tested and rebounded off the 55 day moving average at .9693 and we have a support line at .9667, an upside bias remains”.

“The current September low at .9527 is still viewed as an interim low and we look for the market to tackle the .9903 recent high”.

“Please note that this is also the approximate location of the 2001-2015 downtrend and is highly likely to hold the initial test”.






Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

EUR/GBP: spike in Sterling quickly erased



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Sterling saw a modest spike on the back of a strong UK construction PMI, pushing the EUR/GBP pair to a low of 0.7355, before recovering to trade around 0.7365 levels.

Rejected at 0.74

The EUR/GBP pair was rejected earlier today at 0.7397 following which it fell to 0.7370 and extended losses further after the UK construction PMI rose to a 7-month high in September. Though the pair has recovered slightly from its daily lows, it is largely unchanged on the weekly basis.

Whether the pair will end the week with gains or losses depends on the US non-farm payrolls report due for release later today.

EUR/GBP Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is located at 0.7400 (weekly 50-MA), above which the gains could be extended to 0.7436 (weekly high). On the other side, support is seen at 0.7350 (10-DMA) and 0.7227 (50-DMA).






Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

USD/JPY: Trades above 120.00, eyes US payrolls report


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD/JPY strengthened in Europe on account of risk-on in equities, but awaits the US non-farm payrolls report to see a breakout from the symmetrical triangle formation on the daily chart.

Focus on US data

The pair has been squeezed hard in the symmetrical triangle formation, heading into the payrolls report, which is expected to show the economy added 203K jobs in September. The August print is also expected to be revised higher.

Depending on the payrolls number, the pair could witness a violent breakout from the symmetrical triangle formation. The sentiment on the Wall Street after the payrolls release could also come into play later today.

USD/JPY Technical Levels

At 120.14, the immediate resistance is seen at 120.41 (July 8 low), above which the pair could rise to 120.87 (200-DMA). On the other side, support is located at 119.78 (daily low) and 119.05 (Sep 18 low).






Oct 02,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!