Thread: OcaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

AUDUSD: Consumer confidence building – Swissquote




FXStreet (Delhi) – Arnaud Masset, Market Analyst at Swissquote, notes that Australian shares rose 0.74%, helped by a strong consumer confidence in September. ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index jumped to 114.5 points from 105.3 a week ago as Malcom Turnbull took over leadership of the Liberal Party from Tony Abbott.

Key Quotes

“Australian people are pretty optimistic regarding Abbott’s government’s ability to reinforce an economy, which suffers from weaker demand from China. AUD/USD escaped its short-term downtrend channel as it successfully validated a break of the 0.70 resistance a few days ago.”

“However, the Aussie is still trading within its long-term declining channel. The currency pair already failed once to move above its 50dma (around 0.7240 at the moment) as global investors are still reluctant to reload long AUD/USD position.”








Sep 22,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

AUDUSD: AUD/JPY drops, hints at risk aversion?




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The AUD/JPY pair fell to an intraday low of 85.18 levels as weaker commodity prices dragged AUD and equities lower, thereby triggering safe haven demand for the Yen.

AUD/JPY a risk barometer?

The pair is increasingly being tracked as an indicator of overall market sentiment. The slowdown in China and weakness in commodity prices weighs directly on the AUD, while the resulting risk aversion leads to strength in the traditional safe haven assets like JPY, CHF, Treasuries.

Accordingly, the cross has been on the declining trend of late and remained mute even though the US stocks witnessed a bounce back on Monday.

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

The pair currently trades around 85.36. The immediate resistance is located at 85.91 (hourly 200-MA) and 86.32 (hourly 100-MA). On the lower side, support is seen at 84.78 (Sep 11 low) and 84.14 (Aug 26 low).









Sep 22,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

Interest rates to drive EURUSD lower – Rabobank


FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Rabobank, suggest that while Yellen’s speech is keenly awaited, the market appears to have taken on board the messages offered by policy makers in recent days and EURUSD is likely to head southwards, supported by the interest rates.

Key Quotes

“Measured from the end of last week, the USD has reclaimed ground against all other G10 currencies with the exception of the JPY against which it is little changed.”

“Based on our expectation that the Fed is likely to hike interest rates in December with the ECB announces a broadening in its QE policy we maintain our expectation that interest rates are set to drive EUR/USD lower medium-term. Our 3 mth forecast is 1.10, our 12 mth forecast remains at 1.05.”








Sep 22,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

GBP/USD keeps falling, near 1.5450


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling pressure around the sterling is now gathering further traction, sending GBP/USD to test daily lows in the mid-1.5400s.

GBP/USD in 4-day lows

Spot is extending its weekly decline towards the 1.5450 area today against the backdrop of a generalized context of USD-strength. The pair continues to trade lower after last week’s rejection around the key resistance area at 1.5660, as market participants keep assessing the potential timing of a rates lift-off by the Federal Reserve.

In the data space, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing has widened to £11.30 billion, surpassing expectations at £8.65 billion. Across the pond, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the speech by Atlanta Fed D.Lockhart will be the main highlights.

GBP/USD significant levels

As of writing the pair is down 0.38% at 1.5448 and a breakdown of 1.5373 (low Sep.14) would aim for 1.5330 (low Sep.16) and finally 1.5299 (low Sep.8). On the flip side, the next up barrier lines up at 1.5569 (high Sep.21) ahead of 1.5660 (high Sep.18) and then 1.5717 (high Aug.26).








Sep 22,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

EUR/CHF purchasing power parity well above 1.20 – Swiss Economic Minister


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss Economic Minister was on the wires today stating the purchasing power parity of the EUR/CHF is well above 1.20 and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is working towards the same.

Key Quotes

Strong franc endangers price stability

Certain risk of deflation

It is clear that Switzerland remains an attractive place to do business







Sep 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

ECB adjusts the purchase process in its QE program


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Wednesday that the Governing Council has decided to adjust the purchase process in its bond-buying program and increase the proportion of purchases by national central banks rather than external managers in its quantitative easing (QE) program launched in March this year.

Starting on October 27, the Bank of France and the National Bank of Belgium will act as Eurosystem asset managers executing purchases, the ECB stated, and the contracts of two of its current external executing asset managers will be extended.

In a press release, ECB noted, "The executing asset managers will continue to conduct eligible ABS purchase transactions on explicit instructions from, and on behalf of the Eurosystem. The Eurosystem will maintain its role in undertaking price checks and due diligence prior to approving transactions."






Sep 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

No need to act in the short term – ECB’s Nowotny


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) member Edwald Nowotny, while speaking to Bloomberg today, played down the urge to do expand the ECB’s QE program by stating that there is no need to act in the short term.

Key Quotes On QE

Prolongation of QE may have a signalling effect. There is room to buy more of the same under QE. ECB could expand into other assets. Any QE expansion will need more thorough examination.

On Inflation

Core inflation rates have been rather stable. The ECB is clearly below its 2% inflation goal. Low oil price means incomes have improved.




Sep 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

USD/JPY bearish below 120.35/80 – Commerzbank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair’s outlook remains negative while below the 120.35/80 area, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“USD/JPY is consolidating – it faces a number of resistances directly overhead from 120.42 to 121.80”.

“It is side lined in a converging space, and below lies the near term support line, this is located at 119.20 today. Currently we remain negative below the 121.35/80 zone”.

“The market has failed recently at the 61.8% retracement at 121.80. We look for this to continue to cap the topside and we then look for a retest of 118.33/25 (March low) en route to the 116.15/115.85 2015 low and the recent low”.



Sep 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

Eurozone PMI and German PMI: Light at the end of tunnel - ING


FXStreet (Delhi) – Teunis Brosens, Research Analyst at ING, suggests that a slowdown in emerging markets will hit Eurozone exports sooner or later. But for now, new orders are at a five month high, boding well for Eurozone business activities in the months ahead. Draghi may not need to make good on his promise to expand or extend QE when necessary just yet.

Key Quotes

“Flash September Eurozone PMIs fell slightly compared to last month, but continue to paint a positive picture of Eurozone business activity. According to flash estimates, the composite PMI slipped to 53.9 from 54.3 in August, driven by minor declines in both the manufacturing and services sectors.”

“Eurozone businesses reported continuing expansion of activity in September. Employment continues to grow, albeit at a slowing pace. Average PMIs in the third quarter are slightly higher than in the second, suggesting that the 0.4% quarterly growth rate achieved in the second quarter can be maintained in the third.”

“German businesses continue to do well. Although German PMIs slipped slightly from August, the third quarter was better overall then the second. German businesses reported higher demand on both domestic and foreign markets. Moreover, job creation in Germany accelerated to the highest pace since December 2011.”

“In a sense, today’s flash PMI is already outdated as it is published: most of the flash PMI data were collected last week and therefore do not capture the effects of the VW diesel manipulations. In any case, it is way too early to assess the impact on the wider economy.”



Sep 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!

Too early to discuss new ECB stimulus – ECB’s Jazbec

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Slovenian central bank head and the European Central Bank member Bostjan Jazbec was on the wires stating today that it is too early to talk about new ECB stimulus. Earlier today, ECB member Nowotny also played down the urge to do more.

Key Quotes

Currently not discussing QE exit, nor discussing prolonging QE

It is too early to discuss new ECB stimulus

Monetary policy is working with a delay so it's too early to discuss any other scenario that has been agreed




Sep 23,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates

Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!