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USD/CHF retracement toward 0.9540 looks likely – SG






FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to technical analysts from Societe Generale, the USD/CHF is undergoing a consolidation within a triangle, the upper limit of the formation at 0.99 - 1.00 is likely to provide resistance and from there a retracement looks likely towards 0.9540 and even towards 0.9260.


Key Quotes:


“The USD/CHF has been undergoing consolidation since March within a pattern similar to a triangle (current limits at 0.99/1.00 and 0.9260).The pair is approaching the upper limit which also corresponds to a multiyear descending trend resistance (log scale). “


“With the daily stochastic indicator approaching resistance levels, 0.99/1.00 is likely to be a key level. Only a sustained move higher will mean an extension in uptrend. Once these levels are achieved, a retracement looks more likely initially towards 0.9540 and even the lower limit at 0.9260.”




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GBP/JPY capped by 20 SMA






FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/JPY is consolidating, currently trading at 185.79 having been as a high as 186.88 with a low of 185.70.


The crosses in the Yen have been well placed on the bid with bullish gains instigated in risk-on recoveries that left the Yen exposed for the end of the week. The BoE's sanguine tone today on recent market volatility kept the pound supported also while we await next week's BoJ at a time when markets are starting to suspect that the Central Bank may be moving towards additions easing measures in response to the deteriorating outlook for growth and inflation in Japan.


GBP/JPY levels


Technically, GBP/JPY has started to consolidate the rising channel as MACD on the hourly starts to turn less negative and the 20 DMA caps the upside on the 186 handle. Downside levels are 185.50/80 and 185.00 guarding the 200 SMA at 183.89.




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AUD/USD upside running into tough resistance






FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has scored some space above the 50 SMA at 0.7065 and is looking for a close in positive territory for the week, having made highs yesterday at 0.7099.


AUD/USD has staged a minor recovery on the start of the month's downtrend and lows that were down to test the resilience of the bulls at the 0.69 handle. The Australian jobs data and Chinese CPI's supported the Aussie towards the end of the week after a spell of disappointments for the Australian economy over the past few weeks having gained about 2% and ostensibly helped by the stabilization of Chinese markets and higher copper and iron ore prices, as noted by analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.


AUD/USD rallies to find tough resistance at 0.7191


Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD is near term upside corrective and currently we would allow for a near term move higher to approximately 0.7165 (intraday Elliott count). "Rallies are expected to remain capped by the 0.7191 4 month downtrend and 0.7205 (last weeks high). The market will need to overcome the 0.7448 July 21 high in order to negate downside pressure longer term. Below 0.6980 will retarget the 0.6905 recent low and then 0.6774 the 2004 low longer term."





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AUD/JPY, the biggest gainer






FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/JPY rose more than 300 pips during the last five days and was among the most traded currency pairs the biggest gainer.


The aussie was the best performer boosted by an upbeat Australian employment report and a rally of the AUD/NZD. The yen dropped in the market ahead of the Federal Reserve week and amid some comments of more monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan.

AUD/JPY best week since November


The pair started the week testing multi-year lows but the 82.00 area offered again support. From there it started to rally and peaked on Thursday at 85.89, hitting a 1-week high.


The pair is about to end the week trading at 85.40, 3.50% above the level it had a week ago; the best weekly result since the beginning of the year.





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Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -6.4% to -6.8% in August






FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.




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Speculators increased net bearish positions in 10-yr Treasury futures






FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed the speculators pushed their overall bearish positions higher last week. The bearish bets are now at highest since July 7th.


The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, witnessed a weekly change of -21,131 net contracts to total a net position of -23,926 contracts in the data reported for September 8th. Long positions in 10-year futures dipped by -4,336 contracts and the short positions rose by by 16,795 contracts.


The commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) boosted their overall bullish positions to a total net position of +128,067 contracts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury note in the US currently trades almost 1 basis point higher at 2.192%.






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EUR/USD off highs, eases to 1.1340






FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD has faded the spike to multi-day tops in the vicinity of 1.1380 on Monday, now returning to the 1.1345/40 band.


EUR/USD propped up by risk aversion


Spot is extending its bullish momentum from last Friday, quickly advancing towards the upper-1.1300s while remains sustained by the Chinese-led risk aversion sentiment dominating the global markets so far.


Nothing worth noting data wise in Euroland, with Italian inflation figures and EMU’s Industrial Production, both in the pipeline later on in the day.


EUR/USD key levels


The pair is advancing 0.05% at 1.1341 facing the next hurdle at 1.1374 (high Sep.14) followed by 1.1498 (high Aug.23) and finally 1.1523 (high Aug.27). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1327 (low Sep.14) would target 1.1253 (low Sep.11) en route to 1.1147 (low Sep.9).






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Rate rises could be reversed if need be - BOE's Weale






FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Bank of England (BOE) should not wait too long to increase the base interest rate as it might overshoot the inflation target of 2% in the medium-term, policymaker Martin Weale noted on Sunday.


Weale argued that a strong labor market and firming wages "mean that inflation is likely to rise above target in two to three years' time."


"Policy needs to be set with reference to this, rather than the current rate of inflation. As a result, it seems likely to me that the bank rate will need to rise relatively soon, “he added.


He also said rate rises "might have to be reversed somewhat" if "events turn out very differently," referring to an increased level of uncertainty about the events unfolding in Asia and Europe.


"I will continue to monitor carefully developments both at home and abroad, taking account of possible effects of events in China. Any decision to vote to change bank rate will be made on the basis of the balance of risks, but with the comfort that, if subsequent developments mean that any increase needs to be reversed, that can be done," Weale concluded.








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EUR/USD muted post-EMU data






FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency remained apathetic after EMU releases on Monday, with EUR/USD keeping the trade around the 1.1330 area.


EUR/USD indifferent on data


The pair paid no attention to the better-than-expected Industrial Production figures in the euro bloc during July, expanding at a monthly pace of 0.6% and taking the annual expansion to 1.9% vs. initial estimates at 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.


Spot has surrendered initial gains to the boundaries of 1.1380 and is now visiting session lows around 1.1330 as risk-off trends seem to be losing momentum. Further releases in the region saw Italian consumer prices rising 0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY during the last month.


EUR/USD key levels


The pair is retreating 0.04% at 1.1331 and a breach of 1.1327 (low Sep.14) would target 1.1253 (low Sep.11) en route to 1.1147 (low Sep.9). On the other hand, the next hurdle lines up at 1.1374 (high Sep.14) followed by 1.1498 (high Aug.23) and finally 1.1523 (high Aug.27).








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EUR/JPY drops below 100-DMA






FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR was offered once again on a positive Eurozone data, pushing the EUR/JPY pair below its 100-DMA located at 136.27.


Rejected at 137.04


The cross was offered at a high of 137.04 earlier today, while the losses in the EUR were extended further after the Eurozone industrial production for July printed higher than expected. Off-late the EUR has been responding negatively to the positive data sets out of the Eurozone.


Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen remains bid as uncertainty is on the rise ahead of Thursday’s FOMC meeting. The EUR/JPY pair currently trades around 136.20 levels.


EUR/JPY Technical Levels


The immediate support is located at 135.80 (200-DMA), under which the slide could be extended to 135.34 (38.2% of 126.095-141.055). On the other side, resistance is seen at 137.04 (daily high) and 137.52 (23.6% of 126.095-141.055).










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