Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 9, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 127.25. Within the latter wave there are three waves (colored magenta in the chart) with potential subwave C still developing from 125.63. The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-124.75-125.56.
Supports:
- 124.68 = objective point (OP)
- 124.14 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 123.59-53 = confluence area of .50 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.26 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 122.73 = .618 ret
- 122.23 = objective point (OP)
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-123.85.
Resistances:
- 125.95 = .618 retracement
- 126.52 = .786

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-50 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 9, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 1.0202. On still smaller scale there are three waves within the latter B - colored red in the chart - and potential subwave C is still developing from 1.0275. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0202, and expansions off 1.0202-1.0445-1.0275, 1.0275-1.0390-1.0281.
Resistances:
- 1.0425 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0467 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0477 = .50 retracement
- 1.0518 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0542 = .618 ret
- 1.0582 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0668 = XOP
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0202-1.0445.
Supports:
- 1.0105 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (60-80 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, November, 09/ 2011



European shares fall back into the session on Wednesday, in a move that was expected, given the lack of definition of the political crisis in Greece and Italy.

On Greece, the problem brings a drag of months, and while the former leader Papandreou resigned and assumes no new government, creating a sense of anarchy at a time when continuity is defined or not the country in the Euro.

In the case of Italy, their leader Bernusconi announced his resignation on Tuesday generated a significant increase in the stock of the old continent, but ultimately such waiver was not submitted. A further surprise in the middle of the number of unusual events very special this year for the markets.

This lack of definition is hitting squarely in the minds of investors, who once sought refuge in the dollar. Therefore, all major currencies are giving strength to the dollar, while the Dow Jones index futures trading at sharply lower at the opening hours of the NYSE.


The Euro is naturally the currency most affected in these hours, but also the Swiss franc and Australian dollar signs of weakness. The British pound, meanwhile, still has the dimension of 1.60, which, however, momentarily lost in the midday in Europe. The yen, which had strengthened over the past two days, fell slightly against the dollar, but without losing its medium-term uptrend.

If the economic, financial, and social policy in the euro continued to decline for the next few weeks we will see a devaluation to u $ s 1.3000 .- could be the first announcement of a major collapse that would threaten the political unity of Europe and the survival of their beloved son, the Euro.

It also falls on oil, which traded at $ 95.55 a barrel at the moment, losing two dollars from the high of the day.

For the U.S. session, hopefully, as a fact of importance, the weekly oil inventories in the U.S., at 10:30 Eastern.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/JPY Buy Above 103,60 November 09, 2011 (Daily Strategy)




EUR/JPY

The euro – Japanese yen pair has has perforated his line of upward trend that it was bringing from October 04, at the moment is trading at 105.85 has found support in the weekly S1 and also on the 50-day moving average. The MACD indicator shows signal a deeper fall. Therefore, a daily close below this level could weaken the euro- Japanese yen to its nearest support of 103.60. at this point we enter a bullish strategy with a target to 108.60 yen per euro.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 10, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave 4 (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, 116.91-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-124.75-125.56, 125.56-123.55-124.07.
Supports:
- 123.30-26 = confluence area of .382 retracement and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 122.83-73 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 122.23 = objective point (OP)
- 122.08-06 = confluence area of .50 ret and OP
- etc.
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 125.56 - this wave is not developed yet so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 10, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0445. On still smaller scale there are three waves within the latter C - colored red in the chart - and impulse subwave C is still developing from 1.0403. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0202-1.0445, 1.0445-1.0275-1.0403.
Supports:
- 1.0105 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement
- 0.9958 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9895 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0403-1.0106.
Resistances:
- 1.0219 = .382 ret
- 1.0255 = .50 ret
- 1.0290 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-70 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, November, 10 / 2011



Confusion reigns in Europe, with countries virtually headless, with plans to drive full of euphemisms to other nations in the Eurozone (before those nations should leave by force), and uncertainty, of course, goes to the player of this story, the beleaguered Euro.



The single currency broke the 1.35 dimension in the European session opening on Thursday, but managed to recover the two major actions in France, Germany and Spain, whose main stock exchanges, the rates to become short-term uptrends. At this moment is quoted 1.36.

The other markets around the world attending size in disbelief lack of leadership, technical inability to assume the problems, politics and greed that prevents, in short, that all Europe to have a hope of recovery within a reasonable time.

The Euro project, supported by Germany, flaunting its most negative for countries without fiscal discipline: unable to devalue their own currencies, local deficits must be covered with public debt, which is becoming unaffordable. Such is the case of Italy and Greece.

Leading currencies somehow accompany the fall of the Euro, in part by the circumstances described, and in part by seeking refuge in the dollar by investors. It is known that, in a serious crisis, the dollar serves as an oasis.

In another vein, the United States will be published weekly requests from unemployment and the trade balance in October, both at 8:30 Eastern, with the most important reports of the day.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/CHF Sell Below 0.9150, November/10/ 2011 (Daily Strategy)




USD/CHF

The United States dollar – Swiss Franc pair in the 4 hour chart, recovered from 0.8580 to 0.9155 to trading at the beginning of the session today, a break above this level will signal resumption of the uptrend. On the other hand suggest sell, only if the price is below 0.9150. If the panic continues further decreases may occur , then the pair would drop sharply as it is a defensive refuge in difficult times. A total realization can take place towards the weekly resistance level, 0.8650. The momentum indicator, shows signs of falling deeper.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook, November 10, 2011







GBP/USD


The United Kingdom pound – United States dollar pair has found support at 1.5890 level, this level in previous negotiations has served as a strong support, where many times the price has found support and strength. We believe that this psychological level will be perforated bluntly until the next weekly support level, in view of that the pair remains bearish, and at these low levels would be a good opportunity to buy a long-term goal to 1.6340. The momentum indicator and MACD shows bearish signals on sterling.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/JPY wave analysis for November 10, 2011







Wave dimension analysis
After finally passing the correction level 50.0% the USD/JPY made an unconfident attempt to reverse and resume upside movement. At the same time if such attempt can gain the required dynamics the formation of the complicated inner wave structure of the b wave can be considered complete. We should also pay attention to the quite convincing MACD which can be interpreted as the readiness of the market to resume growth within the future c wave.

General conclusion and recommendations:

The upside movement is expected. The inner wave structure of the b wave is quite complete, and the price is ready to start forming the upside wave c. If so, the target of the upside movement will be the 78.58 level which coincides with the Fibo correction 23.6%. Convincing MACD divergence points to the readiness of the pair to increase as well. The only obstacle is the low volatility of this pair and low attractiveness of its trading. In general if the c wave starts being passed long positions will be in advance.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 11, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0445. On still smaller scale there are four waves within the latter C - colored red in the chart - and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 1.0051. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0202-1.0445, 1.0445-1.0275-1.0403, 1.0403-1.0051-1.0208.
Supports:
- 0.9990 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9958 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9895 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9856 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0403-1.0051, and expansions off 1.0051-1.0208-1.0090.
Resistances:
- 1.0219 = .382 ret
- 1.0255 = .50 ret
- 1.0290 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (45-65 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 11, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave 4 (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave is still developing from 125.63. The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, 116.91-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-124.75-125.56, 125.56-123.01-123.81.
Supports:
- 122.73 = .618 retracement
- 122.23 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
- 122.08 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.56-123.01.
Resistances:
- 123.98 = .382 retracement
- 124.29 = .50 ret
- 124.59 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, November, 11 / 2011 Italian economic prospects are very negative. The widening of the German bund business confidence has collapsed and with it, investment. Private consumption has slowed rapidly to the expectations of rising unemployment and the provision of an unavoidable austerity program. The export sector, which had made a modest positive contribution to GDP at the start of the new cycle of recession, has begun to weaken, and so will continue in the coming months due to the weak competitiveness and productivity of the economy, as well as stagnation-recession in the Eurozone, especially France and Germany. Against this background, the impotence of the ruling coalition is clamorous. Since last summer designed a series of emergency budgets aimed at gaining the confidence of the markets. However, nothing has been announced implemented. Italy is in danger of entering a vicious circle in which the recession feeds debt and risk aversion of investors strangle access to international credit markets to banking transalpine. This is the prelude to a default. This day will be very narrow in the volume of operations and movements of major currencies, U.S. to commemorate Veterans Day. Anyway, the news agenda includes the preliminary consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan / Reuters at 9:55 Eastern. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== ========================== ========= ================================================== ========================== ========= NZD/USD Bullish Outlook, November 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy) NZD/USD The pair New Zealand dollar - U.S. dollar registered sharp losses during the last ten days, having completed a decrease of more than 500 points. and on the road also broke the uptrend line that served as support around 0.7900. It is estimated that the pair will continue the downward movement, at least until the next significant support level around 0.7570. (S2) Therefore, our objective is to try to take buy position but not at any price. The drop to the 0.7570 level, may represent a good opportunity to do, assuming that the weekly trend line is really going to support the price and will allow you to fall back into the pattern. This represents an excellent opportunity to buy the pair at a particularly low price ahead of the original motion resumed. On the other hand, a close above 0.7800, will give us the opportunity to take some long positions. with a short-term goal, to 0.8150 american dollars per dollar neolzelandés. Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== ========================== ========= ================================================== ========================== ========= Crude oil technical analysis for November 11, 2011 Analysis: Crude oil technical analysis for November 11 shows a stable upward movement over the moving average which has been providing us with excellent opportunities for bullish trading. The first target of the upside movement is now 98.86, as 95.54 has been overcome. In case this price level is hit, buying will continue with a target to USD 100.58 per barrel. Moreover, the current trend line 4 is serving as strong support for bulls. The price is below this line which is a sign of persistent prospects of upside movement. Bearish trading is not recommended at the moment: the price has not yet consolidated below the current trend line. Awesome Indicator demonstrates the current downward movement, since the last closed bar is red. That is why now it is recommended to open buy positions until an upward movement resumes. It will be seen as Awesome will take a turn upwards. This indicator will paint the closed bar green. A protective stop order can be now placed below trend line 4. Trading recommendations: Proceeding from the results of oil price movements analysis, it is recommended to buy with a target to USD 98.86. Bullish trading with a target over 100.58 is suggested unless bulls weaken their ardour and if this level is hit. Now traders can exit by a stop loss below trend line 4, as this line is strong support. Traders should go long with the specified targets after Awesome goes upwards. Opening short positions is not recommended now. Fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into consideration apart from the technical vision. Image annotations: Awesome Oscillator – red and green bars in the indicator’s window. Trend lines – blue lines. Support and resistance levels – red horizontal lines. Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 14, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave 4 (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, 116.91-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-122.90-124.22.
Supports:
- 122.73 = .618 retracement
- 122.53 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.23 = objective point (OP)
- 122.08 = .50 ret
- 121.50-49 = confluence area of .618 ret and OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.63-122.90, 127.25-122.90.
Resistances:
- 124.27 = .50 ret
- 124.56-59 = confluence area of .382 and .618 retracements
- 125.05-08 = confluence area of .786 and .50 ret
- 125.59 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-55 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com