Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 3, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 1.0427. The targets below the current price are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0207-1.0427.
Supports:
- 1.0090 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9882 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0427-1.0207, 1.0752-1.0207.
Resistances:
- 1.0291 = .382 ret
- 1.0317 = .50 ret
- 1.0343 = .618 ret
- 1.0415 = .382 ret
- 1.0479 = .50 ret
- 1.0544 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 03/ 2011



European Union decided to postpone the help for Greece, which this time consisted of a section of the plan signed months ago, of 8 billion euros. A logical reaction to the Greek government's decision to consult on a popular approval or not the package signed last week.

However, a statement from the Fed that is slowly changing his views on the future of the U.S. economy gave some optimism to the markets.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Ben Bernanke said the central bank may take more stimulus measures, including consideration of the third round of quantitative easing of monetary policy. Despite the acceleration of growth in the third quarter of the year, there are still "significant risks" for the economy and unemployment is still "too high" Bernanke said. The Federal Open Market Committee left the target federal funds rate unchanged at the upper boundary at the level of 0.25%, and also revised downward its economic growth forecast for next year. The forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2012, by contrast, was increased to 8.5% -8.7%, compared with previous estimates of 7.8% -8.2%.

On the other hand, Bernanke added that "we continue to expect a recovery in economic activity and labor market, although it is likely that this process is very slow."

Today will be published the following non-manufacturing index value calculated by the Institute for Supply Management. According to preliminary estimates, the index, which reflects the activity in the area of services, could reach 53.5 in October from 53 in September.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Monthly Analysis, 03 / November, 2011




EUR/USD

According to the elliot wave analysis. in the pair Euro - dollaris developing wave of correction "B" we believe this wave will have its growth to 1.4180, this level coinside with the daily downtrend line that began in April 2011. But now we can buy cautiously because the uncertainty in the markets with a goal to the top of this wave "C", we believe that this wave will have its devel at least until the beginning of 2012 and could drop the price of the euro - dollar to 1.2800, as our goal long term.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 4, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 127.25. Within the latter wave there are two waves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B developing from 123.85. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-123.85.
Resistances:
- 125.55 = .50 retracement
- 125.95 = .618 ret
- 126.52 = .786 ret
If th price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.25.
Supports:
- 123.59 = .50 retracement
- 123.15 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.73 = .618 ret
- 121.85 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 4, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 1.0202. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0202, and expansions off 1.0202-1.0445-1.0291.
Resistances:
- 1.0441 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0477 = .50 retracement
- 1.0534-42 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 1.0684 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0202-1.0445.
Supports:
- 1.0105 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9895 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (35-55 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 04/ 2011



The Greek government reversed the referendum that had come on Tuesday, after verifying that end, a similar measure, is much closer than if you do not. Papandreou and his people finally seem to understand that, although able to put "the ropes" to the European Union, demanding a bailout so definitely threatens to bring down the Euro, the dominant powers are not willing to continue supporting this kind of outrage.

The days go by, Greece runs out of money to pay government salaries and running costs, and only now his government would think that, after all, is not so convenient to have a currency like the Euro, impossible to devalue by local ordinance and impossible to issue its own to continue paying populist policies.

In this regard, there are indeed two points of view: a European interest and have a partner, or just continue to have problems, such as had from the accession of Greece to the euro, through falsified statistics?

We adhere to the second alternative. Looking to the future of the Euro, it seems appropriate that this continue to happen, even though Greece now backed off its threat to leave out the single currency. In any case, the EU has shown an excess of patience with a government that seeks only to win elections, regardless of the consequences worldwide is taking its action. But it also showed an alarmingly slow reflexes.

Quick reflexes, on the other note outstanding on Thursday, the new president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, cut the benchmark interest rate by surprise, in a move expected next month.

The official, speaking with a sober, no ads strangers, and with a heavy dose of realism, debuted resonate well in office markets. And did not miss the opportunity to make the first move in monetary policy, perhaps something demanded by the situation created by Greece.

The Euro reacted to the floor before the rate cut, as was logical, but then, before the day that had the NYSE stocks, returned to a level with rising trend, which was accentuated by the suspension of the Greek referendum.

The remaining coins accompanied the mood of the markets, which was logical swings a day very special. Mario Draghi, said the region is headed for a mild recession.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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EUR/USD wave analysis for November 4, 2011




Wave line pattern analysis:
The ECB decision on its rate and G20 summit contributed to uncertainty of the current wave situation for EUR/USD, though on the whole, a rising correction is developing (in relation to a falling zone shaped October 27 – November 1) as it was expected. Within the framework of the correction the price has already finished a series of abc waves within the limits of a b alleged wave. If this is the case, then the euro may test 36 figure level from its yesterday highs (approximately 1.3930). At the same time it is worth mentioning that the position of indicators allows resuming falling trend and further growth of quotes to the October high.
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
Proceeding from the wave line pattern, the situation is unfolding in compliance with the scenario. The rising correction is continuing; it is not recommended to trade it off. Abc waves formed within b wave can suggest that correction is over, that is why from the current rates we can see the declining trend part resuming. So, if this point of view is true, then as soon as the downward trend resumes bearish trading targeted to 1.3482 would be recommended (23.6% Fibonacci). The Stochastic Oscillator position does not support either variant, yet does not deny any as well.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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SILVER Bearish Outlook 1.4250, November 04, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)







SILVER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures are trading day today at 34.06 dollars per troy ounce,

According to the technical analysts can see that price is just above the line of the weekly Pivot, we believe you expected to rise to the level of 38.00 this will be confirmed over the weekend if the price closes above 34.00. On the other hand, for the year will be expected to bear the price of silver touches the line of long-term trend, with a target to $ 28.00 per troy ounce.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The USD/JPY technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 4, 2011


4-hour timeframe




Overview:
According to the analysis of the yen on Forex market, the yen is still correcting after a growth by over 400 pips on Monday. Nothing has changed during the last few days and thww price is moving in a quite narrow sideways channel. It is also worth mentioning that during a few months after a strong upside move the volatility decreased and the price moves within 50-70 pips during a day. All indicator lines are quite confusing and the movement is obviously a flat one. Therefore we should wait for the movement to stabilize and corresponding signals from indicators to be formed. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways, which indicates the absence of trend and the recommendation to stay out of the market. The MACD is descending, which indicates current local downside movement.



Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to refrain from yen trading due to high-risk unstable movement.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.



Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.





Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 7, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term uptrend from 116.91. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 127.25. Within the latter wave there are two waves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B developing from 123.85. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-123.85, and expansions off 123.85-125.25-124.55.
Resistances:
- 125.95 = confluence area of .618 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 126.52 = .786 ret
- 126.82 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If th price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.93-127.25, and expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63.
Supports:
- 123.59-53 = confluence area of .50 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.73 = .618 ret
- 122.23 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-55 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 7, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave B is still developing from 1.0202. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0202, and expansions off 1.0202-1.0445-1.0291.
Resistances:
- 1.0441 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0477 = .50 retracement
- 1.0534-42 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 1.0684 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0202-1.0445, 1.0438-1.0314-1.0426.
Supports:
- 1.0302 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0225 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0105-01 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0070 = .50 retracement
- 0.9908 = .618 ret
- 0.9895 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-70 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for November 8th -- 10th, 2011

USD/CHF's subsequent sharp fall suggests that decline from 0.9315 a month ago and had resumed to 0.8567 (Strong support). It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 0.9000 -- 0.8567 and the price has been set below strong resistance at the levels of 0.9050/0.9075. Aswell it is noting that these levels are coinciding between 61.8% and 78% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart and the pair has already formed a strong resistance at this level of 0.9050 and it is now approaching from it in order to test it. Therefore the Swissy will be a downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall looks is not corrective, in order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9050 / 0.9075 for that it will a good sign to sell below 0.9075 with a first target of 0.8850 and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 0.8743 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart).
Furthermore, it also have to note that the price at 0.8570 will be possible formed double bottom and call for a strong support. So it will be saturation around 1.8570 to rebound the pair, aswell it will probably that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.8570 with a first target of 0.8700 and continue towards 0.8822.

Intraday Technical Levels for November 8th, 2011:



Performed by Mourad El Keddani, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis (Regression Channel Analysis) November 8, 2011


EUR/USD currency pair is now testing a confluence of resistance levels at 1.3790.
This confluence is formed of the upper limit of two intermediate-term channels & the intermediate line of the longer-term channel which acts as a resistance too.
We had a bearish reaction towards this level as a "Falling of the roof" candlestick but wasn't followed by a good bearish move, instead the pair is testing the level again.
Based on the previous analysis, We can have a bearish position if we have a bearish confirmation again of the 1H candlesticks with TP at 1.3730, 1.3700.
However, if we have a 1H closure above this level we can have a bullish position easily as the pair will be targetting then the upper limit of the yellow channel at 1.3860.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 08/ 2011



A week that began agitated since Sunday, with resignation Greek Prime Minister Papandreou, whom happen a coalition government.

Without enter political considerations things hoped the incoming government implement plan anti crisis imposed by EU one hand gives great relief macroeconomics Greek by cutting sovereign debt has in a 50% and secondly proposes an adjustment hard towards population which surely highe conflicts current.

There is a strange calm today in the currency markets, and really understands what is coming. The G-20 ended up with zero results, the Greek political situation remains in flux, while the returns from Italy dreaded approaching the horizon of 7.00%. It seems as if all efforts to save Europe would have been in bucket or simply never have done nothing.

Confidence at times like east lasts briefly markets returning reality and knowing that background problem not solves changing government but minded and attitudinal thing markets not in situation achieve.

All this is generating strong movements in currency pairs main with Euro and Sterling recovering positions quickly gold prices and oil not outside what happens. Ounce retook marked uptrend in recent days and accentuates same in these hours, while barrel WTI fetches $ 96.40.

Furthermore, markets still digest two key data: Friday, creating jobs October failed resulted festivities and so reflected actions NYSE. But also lowered the unemployment rate to 9%, one tenth that at least did not worsen the labor market situation.

Therefore we pending expansion by the acontecimeintos who will have this week to take posisciones long or short in major pairs currency.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/CHF Bearish Outlook, November 08, 2011




USD/CHF

The pair dollar-Swiss franc weakened opening of the trading week as weak macro data arrived. Consumer Price Index came out 0.1% when the market had expected a positive figure of 0.2%.

Figure technique, we can see that the Swiss franc will have to face the 0.9150 resistance level on several occasions and has served as a barrier in the rise of the pair, we believe that there will be a good point of reversal of the trend, to locate our bearish positions. with an objective to support nearest to 0.8660. dollars for Swiss franc.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com