Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 2, 2011

AUD/USD is now moving in subwave C (colored magenta in the chart) that is part of wave C of larger degree - colored royal blue in the chart. The former subwave C also consists of waves of still smaller degree - colored red in the chart. There are 5 of them and now we may be having wave A that may become part of corrective A-B-C cycle. The immediate supports are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0963-1.1009, and 1.0676-1.1009.
Supports:
- 1.0919 = .618 retracement
- 1.0882 = .382 ret
- 1.0842 = .50 ret
- 1.0803 = .618 ret
If the uptrend resumes the resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9709-1.0580-1.0389, 1.0442-1.0775-1.0676, 1.0676-1.0947-1.0863.
Resistances:
- 1.1009 = objective point (OP)
- 1.1030 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.1134 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices), or when the price hits a Fib support (e.g. at 1.0919 or 1.0882).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CAD technical analysis for May 2, 2011

Support levels: 0.9400, 0.9353, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9721, 0.9840, 0.9972

In the 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has refreshed a multi-year high by breaking the 0.9450 support level. As mentioned before, break of the 0.9450 support level will allow the pair to reach 0.9400. Besides, we can expect a decline to 0.9353, which is 100.0 Fibonacci projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 up to 0.9972.
If a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9721 resistance level, further advance to 0.9972 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as the first target and 0.9500 as the next possible target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD technical analysis for May 2, 2011

The NZD/USD currency pair is rolling back after it could not break the resistance level 0.8100. Nevertheless, its break will target the pair to 0.8150.
In a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect an upside movement to the 0.7660 level, following the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 break.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7823, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7740. 
[img]http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110502/Picture%206.png

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/USD candlestick analysis for May 2, 2011

In a daily graph the EUR/USD pair is rolling back after a strong upside movement. As mentioned earlier, break of the resistance level 1.4800 targeted the pair to 1.5150.
Earlier in the intraday chart EUR/USD shaped a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination which is an explicit signal to growth.
Such a candlestick combination points to the growth of the pair for several weeks. However, there was a rollback registered at the 1.4035 level which was a good opportunity to start buying.
Further upside movement is supported by the fact that the uptrend remains.
The break of 1.4035 resistance level proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the resistance level 1.4278.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss orders should be placed slightly below 1.4349 as a break of this level will denote that the uptrend is broken.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD wave analysis for May 2, 2011







After recent reaching of the 1.4880 level, on Friday the EUR/USD currency pair traded in a

narrow range with amplitude of about 80 pips. At the same time, the inner wave structure of

the 3rd wave, in the estimated 5th is getting more complicated. If so, by the end of the

trading the price has almost completed the formation of the 4th wave in the range of this

3rd (in the 5th), which might denote further resumption of the growth in the direction of

the target level located near the 1.4945 level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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GBP/USD wave analysis. Week review





In general, as expected, the GBP/USD currency pair continued upside movement in favour of

the British currency. At the same time, growth of the rate in the range of the 3rd wave, in

the future 3rd (or C) is developing in the direction of the mentioned earlier target level

at the 68 figure level. At the same time, given the inner wave dimension of this 3rd wave,

the price can easily come to the 1.7100 level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for May 2, 2011

4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The euro is still in upside movement and observing the buy signal with target level 1.4826,

the price reached the target level, but there are no signals for the movement to end. The

formed buy signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price

graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the current target for the

upside movement is 1.4961 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next

target will be the second resistance level at 1.5115. Upside movement remains while the

price is above the Kijun-sen (1.4700), if the price fixates below this line it is

recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which

confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show

the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is

descending, which indicates current correction movement, therefore it is recommended to

trade up after the MACD reverses to the upside.



Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 1.4961 and further to 1.5115. Stop

Loss should be placed below 1.4700 and stretch it up as the Kijun-sen advances. Long

positions should be opened after the MACD reverses to the upside.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the

time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.  




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 01-06, 2011


____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.5349
Weekly - R2 = 1.5115
Weekly - R1 = 1.4962
Weekly Pivot = 1.4727
Weekly - S1 = 1.4573
Weekly - S2 = 1.4339
Weekly - S3 = 1.4185



_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5921
Monthly - R2 = 1.5401
Monthly - R1 = 1.5104
Monthly Pivot = 1.4584
Monthly - S1 = 1.4287
Monthly - S2 = 1.3767
Monthly - S3 = 1.3470




REMEMBER ... THE WEEKLY PIVOT POINT S2 AND R2 LEVELS ARE VERY HARD TO BREAK.

Why? the majority of weeks, the market simply can not take much force as to extend outside

the range of R2 and S2 weekly. However, traders should sell short in the R1 weekly or buy

long in S1 weekly, with a target in the weekly Pivot, is a viable strategy to make swing

trading.

Other form of vary this strategy is to going long on S2 weekly and short R2 weekly , with a

goal in S1 or R1 weekly.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For May 01-06, 2011



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.1374
Weekly - R2 = 1.1175
Weekly - R1 = 1.1073
Weekly Pivot = 1.0874
Weekly - S1 = 1.0772
Weekly - S2 = 1.0573
Weekly - S3 = 1.0471






_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1895
Monthly - R2 = 1.1436
Monthly - R1 = 1.1203
Monthly Pivot = 1.0744
Monthly - S1 = 1.0511
Monthly - S2 = 1.0052
Monthly - S3 = 0.9819




REMEMBER ... THE WEEKLY PIVOT POINT S2 AND R2 LEVELS ARE VERY HARD TO BREAK.

Why? the majority of weeks, the market simply can not take much force as to extend

outside the range of R2 and S2 weekly. However, traders should sell short in the R1 weekly

or buy long in S1 weekly, with a target in the weekly Pivot, is a viable strategy to make

swing trading.

Other form of vary this strategy is to going long on S2 weekly and short R2 weekly , with

a goal in S1 or R1 weekly.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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Oil review for May 3, 2011

Oil futures dropped by the end of trades on Monday after the news on Osama bin Laden’s death ruffled the oil markets. Investors attempted to assess the influence of this happening on the stability in the Middle East. By the end of NYMEX trades the quotations of June futures on low-sulfur oil decreased by 41 cent (0.4%) down to 113.52 US dollars per barrel. During the session the prices reached their highs for 2.5 years nearly 115 US dollars per barrel and dropped down to 110.82 US dollars per barrel. The quotations of Brent oil futures declined by 77 cent down to 125.12 US dollars per barrel. The oil prices were rather mixing after the US armed forces killed Al-Qaeda Osama bin Laden on Sunday. The death provoked fluctuations of prices for primary goods, stocks and currency quotations as traders guessed the possible effects of this event for major oil-producers of the Middle East and North Africa. The death of Osama bin Laden spurred two opposed visions tested by the market on Monday. According to one of them, terror groups may mobilize their forces to respond to the death of their leader and disrupt oil supplies coming from the Middle East and other regions. The second one suggests that this event will put an end to the US fight against terrorism and bring stability back. The prices for oil have grown by 24 % since the beginning of the year as the disorders in the Middle East and North Africa incited concerns over possible disruption of oil supplies. Particularly, the Libyan civil war cut the exports of oil from the country. However, due to high prices traders have not dared to expect further increase in prices. The companies’ and consumers’ budgets have been pressed by high prices for gasoline in the USA which may result in less consumption. Analysts expect the US Energy Ministry data slated for Wednesday to show the growth of oil and oil products reserves.
Traders have been pointing at high prices as the major reason for a slight decline on Monday.
Additionally, analysts say that sluggish activity of Osama bin Laden for the last several years is suggestive that his ability to destroy the global economy weakened. This landmark victory is hardly likely to change the safety situation in the USA and other countries.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott technical analysis for May 3, 2011

Again the AUD/USD could not break the resistance at 1.1000, to roll back further. However, if it is successfully tested we should expect an upside movement to 1.1100.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD formed a Three White Soldiers candlestick combination that indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This combination formed amid a growth after an attempt to break the support level 0.9700; afterwards the bulls started to increase their influence. This candlestick combination provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
Besides, the AUD/USD broke the 61.8 Fibonacci correction level. Break of the 1.0500 resistance level targeted the pair to 1.0600.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.0672 is broken, long positions should be closed as it will cause a decline to 1.0440.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD technical analysis for May 3, 2011

Support levels: 0.9400, 0.9353, 0.9300
Resistance levels: 0.9721, 0.9840, 0.9972
In the 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is still declining after a slight rollback. As mentioned before, break of the 0.9450 support level allowed the pair to reach 0.9400. Besides, we can expect a decline to 0.9353, which is 100.0 Fibonacci projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 up to 0.9972.
If a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9721 resistance level, further advance to 0.9972 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as the first target and 0.9500 as the next possible target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to  the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD technical analysis for May 3, 2011

The NZD/USD currency pair is yet unable to fixate above the resistance level 0.8100. Three previous attempts were unsuccessful. Nevertheless, its break will target the pair to 0.8200.
In a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect an upside movement to the 0.7660 level, following the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 break.
 Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7823, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7740.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com