Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For November 21st / 2011


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Breakout BUY Level : 1.3585.
Strong Resistance : 1.3577.
Original Resistance : 1.3564.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3551.
Target Inner Area : 1.3519.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3487.
Original Support : 1.3474.
Strong Support : 1.3461.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.3453.

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3474 and 1.3564 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.3461 and 1.3577 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.3453 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.3585 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3487 and 1.3551 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.3519 level.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 21 - 25 / November, 2011


We have two graphs, one weekly and one monthly. The strategy we should do is buy the supports S1, (we must be cautious because if the market is bearish try to fall, until weekly support S2) S2, (at this level there is greater probability that the price rebound, at least to the weekly S1.) S3 (severe long-term strategy with the objective of take profit, to the weekly pivot point.) on the other side. The same applies when a market is bullish expect the levels of R1, R2, R3 to sell and take advantage of the price correction.



_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6437
Weekly - R2 = 1.6264
Weekly - R1 = 1.6035
Weekly Pivot = 1.5852
Weekly - S1 = 1.5633
Weekly - S2 = 1.5460
Weekly - S3 = 1.5231








_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7304
Monthly - R2 = 1.6735
Monthly - R1 = 1.6410
Monthly Pivot = 1.5841
Monthly - S1 = 1.5516
Monthly - S2 = 1.4947
Monthly - S3 = 1.4622






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/CAD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 21 - 25 / November, 2011


We have two graphs, one weekly and one monthly. The strategy we should do is buy the supports S1, (we must be cautious because if the market is bearish try to fall, until weekly support S2) S2, (at this level there is greater probability that the price rebound, at least to the weekly S1.) S3 (severe long-term strategy with the objective of take profit, to the weekly pivot point.) on the other side. The same applies when a market is bullish expect the levels of R1, R2, R3 to sell and take advantage of the price correction.

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0579
Weekly - R2 = 1.0440
Weekly - R1 = 1.0358
Weekly Pivot = 1.0219
Weekly - S1 = 1.0137
Weekly - S2 = 0.9998
Weekly - S3 = 0.9916








____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1243
Monthly - R2 = 1.0949
Monthly - R1 = 1.0478
Monthly Pivot = 1.0184
Monthly - S1 = 0.9713
Monthly - S2 = 0.9419
Monthly - S3 = 0.8948






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 21 - 25 / November, 2011




We have two graphs, one weekly and one monthly. The strategy we should do is buy the supports S1, (we must be cautious because if the market is bearish try to fall, until weekly support S2) S2, (at this level there is greater probability that the price rebound, at least to the weekly S1.) S3 (severe long-term strategy with the objective of take profit, to the weekly pivot point.) on the other side. The same applies when a market is bullish expect the levels of R1, R2, R3 to sell and take advantage of the price correction.



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0625
Weekly - R2 = 1.0484
Weekly - R1 = 1.0246
Weekly Pivot = 1.0105
Weekly - S1 = 0.9867
Weekly - S2 = 0.9726
Weekly - S3 = 0.9488






_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.2425
Monthly - R2 = 1.1588
Monthly - R1 = 1.1060
Monthly Pivot = 1.0223
Monthly - S1 = 0.9695
Monthly - S2 = 0.8858
Monthly - S3 = 0.8330





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 21 - 25 / November, 2011




We have two graphs, one weekly and one monthly. The strategy we should do is buy the supports S1, (we must be cautious because if the market is bearish try to fall, until weekly support S2) S2, (at this level there is greater probability that the price rebound, at least to the weekly S1.) S3 (severe long-term strategy with the objective of take profit to the weekly pivot point.) on the other side. The same applies when a market is bullish expect the levels of R1, R2, R3 to sell and take advantage of the price correction.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4141
Weekly - R2 = 1.3977
Weekly - R1 = 1.3750
Weekly Pivot = 1.3586
Weekly - S1 = 1.3359
Weekly - S2 = 1.3195
Weekly - S3 = 1.2968





____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5449
Monthly - R2 = 1.4848
Monthly - R1 = 1.4352
Monthly Pivot = 1.3751
Monthly - S1 = 1.3255
Monthly - S2 = 1.2654
Monthly - S3 = 1.2158




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 22, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are also three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with impulse subwave C developing from 124.22. The wave from 124.22 also has five subwaves (colored red in the chart), with subwave 5 still developing from 121.70. The targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-122.90-124.22, 124.22-122.26-123.09, 123.09-120.82-121.70, 121.70-119.97-120.87.
Supports:
- 119.92-80 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and two expanded objective point (XOP)
- 119.43 = objective point (OP)
- 119.14 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.22-119.97.
Resistances:
- 121.59 = .382 ret
- 122.10 = .50 ret
- 122.60 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 22, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave C still developing from 1.0343. Within the latter wave C there are also waves A, B and C (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0106. The tragets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0051-1.0343, 1.0343-0.9964-1.0106, 1.0106-0.9942-0.9986, 0.9986-0.9808-0.9887.
Supports:
- 0.9777 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9727-21 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9709 = OP
- 0.9642 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0106-0.9808.
Resistances:
- 0.9922 = .382 retracement
- 0.9957 = .50 ret
- 0.9992 = .618 ret


Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (40-55 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, November, 22 / 2011


The week had begun with the threat of so-called "super committee" of the U.S. Congress, composed of legislators from both major parties do not reach an agreement to reduce the budget deficit in the first world economy.

Indeed, after the close of U.S. markets, the committee announced that it reached an agreement, in words that, if not very carefully read seemed to say just the opposite. "After several months of hard work, and shared effort, do not reach a bipartisan agreement," the statement said, also, unusually, announced that in the coming months, maybe it is a common view.

The truth is that, beyond the pompous announcements, the new political fight puts rating agencies whose credibility is so low as to politicians involved in alertness.

The general comment is that some of them could cut U.S. debt notes. The immediate background, which occurred last August, had two implications well visible: the first was that turned the investing public, in fear of a general market collapse, the bond which had just been cut note, the second was the resignation, dismissal of the CEO of Standard & Poor's. A gesture to the rest of the sector CEOs think it will make the qualifying time of U.S. debt.

Moreover, the predictable happens in these cases: general decline in stock markets around the world, newspapers showing photos of the traders on Wall Street with his hands on his head, the graphs point down, and the same bad omens of good. Until again, any good news to change the mood of the markets.

Tuesday's U.S. session data is to keep the number of retail sales in Canada, along with preliminary U.S. GDP, at 8:30 Eastern. And the FOMC Minutes from the last meeting of the agency, at 2:00 PM.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, November 22, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





The Euro-Dollar pair remains under pressure due to high cost of borrowing that remained in Europe and the weakening economic outlook in the Eurozone.

At the technical level we see in the daily chart, the pair has formed a technical figure as a triangle, only the breaking of one of its side will confirm the scenario, either bearish or bullish. if it is a bullish scenario we have a bearish strategy, ie sell at the weekly R1 to target short term pivot level around 1.3580. On the other hand, the range indicator shows that the pair is moving away from the oversold, we could say that there is a struggle to maintain bearish positions. At this level we do not recommend selling or buying. due to the uncertainty.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD wave analysis for November 22, 2011







Wave dimension analysis:

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD fell by almost 3 figures, which allowed it to stop at 1.5610 later in the day. Therefore the price continued moving within the downside trend section, thus forming the inner wave structure of the 5th wave in the estimated 3rd (or c). If so, the 5th wave itself still does not look complete and allows the possibility of the downside movement to resume in the direction of the target level between 1.5565-1.5550.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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EUR/USD Today's Targets and Technical analysis


Overview:
The expected downward slide of the pair is temporarily halted, and it even attempting to recover the lost ground. But the forecast for the pair is still weak, and there is a risk of returning to 1.3428/19. If it reaches that then the next targets will be 1.3381 and 1.3144, its Oct 2011 low. In summary, despite the attempts at recovery the pair is still forecast to weaken further.
Recommendation:
If you are in sell you can close your positions in between 1.3440 level and 1.3393 and the same range is suitable for buying as well.
If you are in buying then the suitable level range will be from 1.3540 to 1.3590 and this range is almost same for selling as well.
Trends:
Near Term: Downward
Short Term: Downward
Medium Term: Sideways
Warning:
Analysis and technical levels are provided only for the educational and informative purposes. Please also check fundamental analysis before opening every single position. Keep yourself away from the market if market is volatile. Always try to open positions with good price level. Remember Forex is like fishing not like hunting.
Money Management Warning:
Never use more than 2 or 3% of your equity in each trade:
For Example 2% of 1000 USD is 20$ and if your stop is 50 pips then your lot size will be calculated as 20$/50 = 0.4 of insta lot which means it will be about 40 cents and similarly if your stop level is 100 pips than lot size will be calculated as follow 20$/100 = 0.2 Insta lots it will be about 20 cents.

Performed by Muzammil Hussain Bhatti, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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USD/JPY Intraday Important Level For November 23rd /2011

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Resistance. 3 : 77.40.
Resistance. 2 : 77.25.
Resistance. 1 : 77.10.
Support. 1 : 76.91.
Support. 2 : 76.75.
Support. 3 : 76.60.

DESCRIPTION :
Please note for the levels of support. 3 (76.60) and Resistance. 3 (77.40), generally when a level is touched, the USD/JPY will turn around the opposite direction from the previous minimum of 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are managed on a breakout over 50 pips then it would be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, November, 23 / 2011


The dollar strengthened on all fronts by averaging the European session on Wednesday, growing stronger against the euro, pound sterling and Swiss franc.

The problems facing Europe, more precisely the states with financial problems to meet their sovereign debt, as well as doubts about maneuvers that would be carrying out some banks to "disguise" losses and present a positive number, print a downward force to the euro , who arrived 1 hour at its lowest since Oct. 10.

The euro area remains the center, with investor concerns about escalating plans for a new attempt to rescue Dexia, the Franco-Belgian bank to the brink of bankruptcy as a result of exposure to sovereign debt.

In turn, a negative German manufacturing PMI "helped" this new downward movement of the single currency.

Nevertheless, the stock of the old continent have no negative day: the DAX 30 in Germany grows above 2.5%, figures similar to the CAC 40 and FTSE 100. From there you can also explain the slight recovery experienced by the euro in the last hour.

In the U.S. session key data is expected on durable goods orders, which once generated great expectations among operators, which produced sharp movements. Although the impact that in recent months is somewhat devalued, the forecast is for growth of the orders of 0.1% in October, compared with 1.8% the previous period, subject to revision.

Also known reports of income and personal consumption, all at 8:30 Eastern. Meanwhile, at 9:55 will be the turn of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan / Reuters, and 10:30, the weekly inventory of oil.



Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/JPY Rebound 102,80 November 23, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/JPY

The euro against the Japanese Yen, is in a downward sequence marked the day yesterday broke its downtrend line, but I can not keep the momentum, however, given that the markets against the dollar oversold they are situated, upward bounce is imminent, we have 2 points to enter, the first will provide an opportunity for a low price in the support level (S1) 102.80 weekly, on the other hand if this level will have to wait for a closing the session above the 1.0440 level to take bullish positions. The range indicator shows the probability of change in short-term trend.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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The USD/JPY technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 23, 2011


4-hour timeframe




Overview:
According to the analysis of the yen on Forex market, the yen decided to keep up with the euro and the franc and remain in the sideways movement. In general the movement is quite weak. The narrow channel forces the Ichimoku indicator to give false signals, therefore it is not recommended to enter the market before the trend movement starts. The Bollinger bands show continuing sideways movement, the lines are slightly diverging and directed sideways, which indicates the recommendation to stay out of the market. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement, and is located near the zero level, which also points to the absence of the trend.



Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to refrain from yen trading until the trend movement starts.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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Fundamental Analysis, November, 24 / 2011


United States today celebrate the Day of Thanksgiving, so that activity in the U.S. session will see a slightly reduced, the situation of Europe has financial markets on edge.

For the first time, Germany struggled on Wednesday to place debt, while 10-year bonds in the country increased to 2.25% to close the European session.

Rain warnings rating agencies about possible cuts debt ratings on almost all the leading countries of the old continent, while the specialists in the field predict a severe recession in the coming quarters.

The German leader Merkel refuses again to create the so-called Euro bonds, and not without reason: he knows that if this mechanism triggers, Germany will settle back to countries that do not meet their commitments to fiscal deficit, which will increase taxpayer discontent of his country.

However, on one side or another, we do not see any solution to the current crisis without issuing euros, and its placement on the market, besides being used to assist countries that are close to default.

In the medium to long term, if Europe is to maintain the euro as legal tender, cover these debts, taken by the states without any control by paying to the creditor banks, which in turn must take significant losses.

This undoubtedly impact on the price of the single currency, which remains quite strong even amid the crisis, taking advantage of the weak dollar on all fronts.

But there are issues beyond the technical or fundamental analysis is used, have to do with logic: there is no reason for an old continent with a single power that brings together much of the GDP of the region and with countries struggling not to lose social rights acquired since 1945, has a coin almost 50% more expensive than the dollar, with the damage it produces a number of these countries.

For a country like Greece, which can benefit its currency costs represent 1.30 or 1.40 to the dollar? And for Spain or Portugal? All it does is hurt exports, reducing the flow of capital for tourism, and losing external competitiveness.

In our opinion, only when Europe take on your problem with the only viable solution is to devalue the euro through the injection of billions, even at the cost of prestige lost Germany and France, will begin to see an early solution.

Of course, all this will not be free. UK also must accommodate the price of the pound, Swiss franc and the euro will follow the steps, beating long-parity against the dollar. At that time, Europe will again be competitive.

The Euro is suffering in these days a lot of sincerity, which is a strong downward movement, perhaps attenuated, as was said before, by the weak dollar.

But this movement could be deepened, so it would not be unreasonable to see your quote below 1.30 if no sustainable solutions in the short term, which so far seem to be a chimera.

Going into Thursday's session, European exchanges operate with moderate increases of 0.5% gain on average, driven by a positive German IFO report, presented by 106.6 points, just ahead of expectations.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, November 24, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)





EUR/USD



In Asian markets, the euro was near 7-week low against the U.S. dollar, after yesterday's sharp fall. when it was trading at 1.3320. the minimum so far recorded.



At the technical level we can see that the pair. is below its trend line that began on October 4in view of the critical situation, continues in the euro zone. believe that the pair is still highly valued. maybe take a breather until 1.34.60. at this level, we can enter a bearish strategy to the next weekly support around 1.3190, as our short-term goal. and our medium-term objective we will place the minimum of January 2011, around 1.2960 dollars per euro.






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com


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GBP/USD wave analysis for November 24, 2011





Wave dimension analysis:

After resuming downside movement during yesterday’s Asian session the GBP/USD pair managed to test the 55 figure level by the end of the day. Therefore this decline can be considered as movement within the forming 5th wave in the 5th, in the estimated 3rd (or c). At the same time given the inner wave dimension of the 5th wave and the whole 3rd (or c), the price might decline to the target level near 1.5450. If so, its break will cause the beginning of a quite continuous recovery process, which is also indicted by the MACD divergence.

General conclusion and recommendations:

The pair is quite likely to finish the downside section of the trend, and now we are observing its last waves being formed. The price is in the downside channel, therefore we still can expect downside movement. In case the price escapes the channel this might prove formation od a new upside trend section.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 25, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave C still developing from 1.0343. Within the latter wave C there are also four subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave 4 developing from 0.9663. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0106-0.9663.
Resistances:
- 0.9832 = .382 ret
- 0.9885 = .50 ret
- 0.9937 = .618 ret
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0752-1.0051-1.0343, 1.0343-0.9964-1.0106, 1.0106-0.9663-0.9785.
Supports:
- 0.9657 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9642 = OP
- 0.9605 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9521-11 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9493 = XOP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com