Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

USD/CAD technical analysis for April 20, 2011

Support levels: 0.9500, 0.9450, 0.9400
Resistance levels: 0.9750, 0.9840, 0.9972

In the 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is demonstrating downside movement to multi-year lows. As mentioned before, break of the 0.9571 support level allowed the pair to reach 0.9500. Besides, we can expect a decline to 0.9353, which is 100.0 Fibonacci projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 up to 0.9972.
If a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9840 resistance level, further advance to 1.0000 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as the first target and 0.9500 as the next possible target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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EUR/USD candlestick analysis for March 20, 2011

EUR/USD pair is trading up with a target to test the resistance level 1.4520 after a rollback.
It is still trading in an uptrend after it has successfully broken the 1.4278 resistance level. As mentioned before, a break of this level will target the pair to 1.4577.
Earlier in the intraday chart EUR/USD shaped a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination which is an explicit signal to growth.
Such a candlestick combination points to the growth of the pair for several weeks. However, there was a rollback registered at the 1.4035 level which was a good opportunity to start buying.
Further upside movement is supported by the fact that the uptrend remains.
The break of 1.4035 resistance level proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the resistance level 1.4278.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss orders should be placed slightly below 1.4100 as a break of this level will denote that the uptrend is broken. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook April 20, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







Crude Oil



The economic Instability will continue Supporting the price of black gold, There exists a

serious chance that the price of crude oil continues raising its price, Proof of this is

that a barrel of oil now being negotiated 109.10 dollars, and that for six day crude oil

price to attempt to drill the important support of 105.50.

In the graph we can see that now the price of oil, is above the pivot weekly, So it have

clean way down to the level of resistance of 113.00 dollars, will be our first objective,

and as our ultimate goal to 117 dollars a barrel oil



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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GOLD Technical Correction, April 20, 2011 (Daily Strategy)




GOLD

Today, gold has made ‹‹a maximum in 1503 dollars per ounce its maximum recorded so far, We

think that gold will even still some way to go maybe to 1700 or up to 2000 dollars a troy

ounce, now there is much uncertainty in the market gold is becoming the favorite to find

refuges and to diversify into other investments.

If we look at our chart, can see that gold has been an upward trend, the secondary trend

line, is overbought, so expect a potential correction, A close in 4 hours candle below the

price of $ 1500.00
it would be an indication to sell to the weekly Pivot line around 1460.00









Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - April 21, 2011

AUD/USD is developing subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend - colored light green in the chart. The former subwave also has waves of smaller degree - colored orange red in the chart, subwave C is still developing. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9709-1.0580-1.0389, 1.0389-1.0578-1.0442, 1.0442-1.0691-1.0648, 1.0648-1.0719-1.0676.
Resistances:
- 1.0791-1.0802 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0862 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0897 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0927-37 = confluence area of COP and SXOP
If the price reverses down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0442 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to look for longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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NZD/USD candlestick analysis for March 21, 2011

The NZD/USD currency pair is demonstrating upside movement after a rollback. Break of the resistance level 0.8000 will target the pair to 0.8050.
As mentioned before, in a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect an upside movement to the 0.7660 level, following the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 break.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7823, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7740.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - April 21, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse subwave C (colored red in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). To confirm subwave C break below 132.90 is needed. The immediate supports now are Fibonacci retracements of 132.90-135.73, 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-135.19-136.96, 136.96-132.90-135.73, 135.73-134.66-135.48.
Supports:
- 134.41-31 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 retracement
- 134.03-133.98 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 133.75 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 133.22 = COP
- 132.68 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 132.22 = OP
- etc.
If the price reverses up and goes above 135.73 the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 139.93-132.90, and expansions off 132.90-135.73-134.66.
Resistances:
- 136.41-42 = confluence area of COP and .50 ret
- 137.24 = .618 ret
- 137.49 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the wave of a larger degree is moving down it's preferable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-55 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/JPY wave analysis for April 21, 2011





During yesterday’s trading the USD/JPY currency pair was trading in a narrow price range,

which nevertheless allowed it to indicate the completion of the 4th wave in the estimated

5th, of the whole downtrend section developed since April 6. At the same time, later in the

day the yen made an attempt to resume downside movement in the direction of the probable

target level located near the 82.15 level. If so, we cannot eliminate the chance of further

beginning of a continuous return of the price to the levels of the 84 figure.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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EUR/USD wave analysis for April 21, 2011





Yesterday the EUR/USD currency pair was trading dynamically in favour of the European

currency, which in its turn allowed the price to test the 45 figure level. At the same

time, the 3rd wave of this new uptrend section became quite prolonged in relation to its

1st wave. Given this, we might suppose that the euro can continue growth in the direction

of the estimated target level located near the 1.4620 level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for April 21, 2011


4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The euro is still in upside movement, and as a result a new buy signal with target level

1.4826 was formed,the price also managed to pass 2 resistance levels. The formed buy signal

is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price

is above the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement

is 1.4668 – the third resistance level, as the previous two were passed. If this level is

passed the second target will be the resistance level of the bigger timeframe at 1.4852.

Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.4385), if the price

fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above

the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The

Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed

up. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement, if the MACD reverses to

the downside it will denote the beginning of a correction.





Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 1.4668 and further to 1.4852. Stop

Loss should be placed below 1.4385 and stretch it up as the Kijun-sen advances. If the MACD

reverses to the downside, it is recommended to cut long positions.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the

time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window. 



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - April 22, 2011

AUD/USD is developing subwave C (colored royal blue in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend - colored light green in the chart. The former subwave also has waves of smaller degree - colored orange red in the chart, subwave B is still developing. The immediate supports are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0442-1.0774, 1.0648-1.0774, and expansions off 1.0774-1.0726-1.0755.
Supports:
- 1.0711-07 = confluence area of .50 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 1.0697 = .618 ret
- 1.0677 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0647 = .382 ret
- 1.0629 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0608 = .50 ret
- 1.0659 = .618 ret
If the price breaks above 1.0774 to continue the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9709-1.0580-1.0389, 1.0389-1.0578-1.0442.
Resistances:
- 1.0927-37 = confluence area of COP and SXOP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to look for longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices as well).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - April 22, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing subwave C (colored red in the chart) within corrective wave B of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets above the current price are Fibonacci retracements off 139.93-132.90, and expansions off 132.90-135.73-134.61.
Resistances:
- 136.36-42 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 retracement
- 137.24 = .618 ret
- 137.44 = objective point (OP)
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 132.90-135.87.
Supports:
- 134.74 = .382 ret
- 134.38 = .50 ret
- 134.03 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the wave of a larger degree is moving up it's preferable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (30-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD technical analysis for April 22, 2011

Earlier in a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick combination, which indicates a downside movement.
This candlestick combination formed after the pair had failed to break the resistance level near 1.6600, which means that the bulls could not solidify here. Further the bears started to increase their influence.
A break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to 1.6164, where Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.6600 level, since a break of this level will target the pair to 1.6750.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com