Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 15, 2011
AUD/USD has finished corrective wave B from 1.0789 and now we have impulse wave C (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term uptrend developing from 1.0526. Within this wave there are minor A and B waves - colored red in the chart. Subwave B is still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0526-1.0797, 0.9709-1.1011 and 1.0390-1.0797, and also expansions off 1.0797-1.0715-1.0784.
Supports:
- 1.0702 = objective point (OP), already reached (!)
- 1.0693 = .382 retracement
- 1.0661 = .50 ret
- 1.0651 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0642-30 = confluence area of .382 ret and .618 ret
- 1.0594 = .50 ret
- 1.0569 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0545 = .618 ret
- 1.0360 = .50 ret
If the price continues the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0390-1.0789-1.0526.
Resistance:
- 1.0925 = contracted objective point (COP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, July15, 2011


This week sparked a crisis in the financial sector in Italy which also extends to other

banks in countries like Spain and others. On Monday, met the authorities of the European

Union, together with representatives of the governments of Italy and Greece in order to

discuss the problems of the region and try to stop the contagion effect. Many analysts now

argue that the next country in question could be Italy.
The situation in the Italian banks is more than troubling: the index of stock market prices

in Italy, and on Tuesday broke the lows of 2010. The casualties have been deepened on

Tuesday (after negative wheels on Friday and Monday), mainly in Italy where the Unicredit

bank suspended trading on the Milan Stock Exchange after touching a flat maximum daily loss

on Monday (down over 25% in only 4 days).
On the other hand, the Italian government debt is at a record highs even above 1997. He is

currently a major concern of Italian investors and reached 120% of GDP.
The level quoted is too high, especially if you compare that with all the total debt of the

eurozone which has yet to reach 90% of GDP. As the estimates for the future, according to

leading investment banks, it is estimated that the Italian government debt continue to rise

in the short term and then stabilized levels closer to 100%.


There is no knowing exactly how much exposure to sovereign debt that banks are buying and

that leads to very large hidden risks. Meanwhile, regulators from European banks to try to

calm the market through the "stress test".


Today we know these results of stress, which is the main focus, when the data will be

available from 16:00 GMT. The EU publishes its trade balance and therefore it does with

U.S. inflation figures, the New Yorker area manufacturing index, industrial production and

confidence figures on consumption.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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GBP/USD wave analysis for July 15, 2011








During the whole day yesterday the GBP/USD currency pair was moving in a narrow price range

along the 1.6120 level. At the same time, the upside section of the trend formed on

Tuesday-Wednesday at the moment looks like an incomplete five-wave structure of a more

continuous upside correction. In the meantime, such incompleteness still allows to

interpret this structure as abc correction, which leaves the resumption of the pound

decline possible.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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NZD/USD Technical Correction, July 15, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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USD/CHF wave analysis for July 15, 2011








Yesterday’s move of the USD/CHF from the 0.8080 level was probably limited by the forming

4th wave, in the 5th. At the same time, the growth can develop in the direction of

estimated target levels located near 0.8200-0.8240. If so, it is possible that after

testing the above mentioned levels the pair will resume downside movement to the lows

reached earlier and further to 0.8050-0.7950.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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EUR/CHF Bullish Outlook, July 15, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/CHF

According fibonacci indicator, Euro-Swiss franc could resume its upward sequence he had in

previous day, only if the price remains above weekly support around the 1.1620 , for a long

position. With A goal of take profit around the 1.2350 level .

A clear weekly closure below the channel's range (at around 1.15 and below) will be a

signal of real danger for the continued downwards movement and for an immediate exit from

all existing long positions.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 18, 2011

AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0390-1.0797 (wave A of long term uptrend - colored light green in the chart) and now is developing potential corrective wave B of the same degree from 1.0797. Within this wave there are 5 subwaves (colored orange red in the chart).

Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0390-1.0797 and expansions off 1.0797-1.0715-1.0784, 1.0784-1.0629-1.0674.

Supports:

- 1.0594 = .50 retracement
- 1.0578-69 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0545 = .618 ret
- 1.0519 = objective point (OP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0797 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (25-35 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 18, 2011

GBP/JPY is now moving within impulse wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves with subwave C from 130.82 still developing (colored royal blue in the chart). The latter wave also has its subwaves - A and B colored magenta in the chart. Subwave B is still developing from 124.87.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.82-124.87, and expansions off 124.87-128.11-127.15.

Resistances:

- 128.55 = .618 retracement
- 129.15 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.39 = objective point (OP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.87-128.11 and expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.19-130.82, 130.82-124.87-128.11, 128.11-127.15-127.69.

Supports:

- 126.87 = .382 ret
- 126.73 = OP
- 126.49 = .50 ret
- 126.14-11 = confluecne area of expanded objective point (XOP) and .618 ret
- 125.18 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 124.43 = COP

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

AUD/CAD candlestick analysis for July 18, 2011

In a daily graph the AUD/CAD has broken the support level 1.0189 and started to decline.
Earlier in a daily graph the AUD/CAD has formed an Evening Star candlestick combination indicating bearish signal, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level 1.0550, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level means that this point of view is correct. If the pair fixates below the support level 1.0189 will probably lead to downside movement to 0.9937 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
Downside movement is supported by the divergence on the RSI and the Stochastic.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.0420 level as its break will target the pair to 1.0550.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 19, 2011

AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0390-1.0797 (wave A of long term uptrend - colored light green in the chart) and now is developing potential corrective wave B of the same degree from 1.0797. Within this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart).

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0797-1.0561, and expansions off 1.0390-1.0797-1.0561.

Resistances:

- 1.0651 = .382 retracement
- 1.0679 = .50 ret
- 1.0707 = .618 ret
- 1.0813 = contracted objective point (COP)

If the price continues the downwave the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0390-1.0797 and expansions off 1.0797-1.0561-1.0650.

Supports:

- 1.0545 = .618 ret
- 1.0504 = COP
- 1.0414 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for July 19, 2011

GBP/JPY is now moving within impulse wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves with subwave C from 130.82 still developing (colored royal blue in the chart). The latter wave also has its subwaves - A and B colored magenta in the chart. Subwave B is still developing from 124.87.

Now the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.82-124.87, and expansions off 124.87-128.11-126.63.

Resistances:

- 128.55 = .618 retracement
- 128.63 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 129.87 = objective point (OP)

If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.87-128.11 and expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.19-130.82, 130.82-124.87-128.11.

Supports:

- 126.49 = .50 ret
- 126.11 = .618 ret
- 124.43 = COP
- 124.17 = expanded objective point (XOP)

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for July 19, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP currency pair is rolling back after it failed to fixate below the support level 0.8720. The viewpoint at the pair remains bearish.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was demonstrating strong upside movement after a fail to break 0.8720. However, it reversed near 0.9083. It means that the bears activated near 0.9100 and did not allow the bulls to fixate.
Fixation below the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 denotes that this point of view is correct. This caused a decline to the support level 0.8860 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located as well. Its break probably caused downside movement to 0.8720. If it fixates below 0.8720, it will allow the pair to reach 0.8600.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 0.8950 as its break will target the pair to 0.9000.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CHF candlestick analysis for July 19, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF currency pair is demonstrating consolidation after a sharp decline to the all-time low 0.8082. The viewpoint is still bearish.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF formed a Shooting Star candlestick indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick shows that the USD/CHF was demonstrating upside movement for several days, but rebounded after a fail to break 0.8946. At the next attempt of the bulls to fixate above 0.8900 the bears started to increase their influence, which resulted in formation of this candlestick.
Successful testing of the support level 0.8747 proved this point of view. Break of 0.8458 which is also the 61.8 Fibonacci projection 0.9342-0.8552 to 0.8946 targeted the pair to 0.8350. Break of the 0.8350 level caused downside movement to 0.8158 where the Fibonacci projection level 100.0 is located. Its break might target the pair to a psychologically relevant support level 0.8000.
Stop loss should be placed slightly above the 0.8400 level as a break of this resistance level will target the pair to 0.8747 and will result in formation of a short-term bottom at 0.8552.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 18 - 22/ July, 2011



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4788
Weekly - R2 = 1.4535
Weekly - R1 = 1.4344
Weekly Pivot = 1.4091
Weekly - S1 = 1.3900
Weekly - S2 = 1.3647
Weekly - S3 = 1.3456





____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5396
Monthly - R2 = 1.5046
Monthly - R1 = 1.4771
Monthly Pivot = 1.4421
Monthly - S1 = 1.4146
Monthly - S2 = 1.3796
Monthly - S3 = 1.3521





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 18 - 22/ July, 2011



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.1064
Weekly - R2 = 1.0932
Weekly - R1 = 1.0790
Weekly Pivot = 1.0658
Weekly - S1 = 1.0516
Weekly - S2 = 1.0384
Weekly - S3 = 1.0242




_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1247
Monthly - R2 = 1.1010
Monthly - R1 = 1.0863
Monthly Pivot = 1.0626
Monthly - S1 = 1.0479
Monthly - S2 = 1.0242
Monthly - S3 = 1.0095





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 18-22/ July, 2011


_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6705
Weekly - R2 = 1.6449
Weekly - R1 = 1.6292
Weekly Pivot = 1.6036
Weekly - S1 = 1.5879
Weekly - S2 = 1.5623
Weekly - S3 = 1.5466





_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6974
Monthly - R2 = 1.6735
Monthly - R1 = 1.6390
Monthly Pivot = 1.6151
Monthly - S1 = 1.5806
Monthly - S2 = 1.5567
Monthly - S3 = 1.5222






Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at

instaforex.com



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USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For July 18-22, 2011


_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 82,83
Weekly - R2 = 81,82
Weekly - R1 = 80,47
Weekly Pivot = 79,46
Weekly - S1 = 78,11
Weekly - S2 = 77,10
Weekly - S3 = 75,75








_____MONTHLY___
Monthly - R3 = 85,35
Monthly - R2 = 82,45
Monthly - R1 = 81,49
Monthly Pivot = 80,59
Monthly - S1 = 79,63
Monthly - S2 = 78,73
Monthly - S3 = 77.77






Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at

instaforex.com