Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 4, 2011

The GBP/JPY is moving in correction to 135.56-131.14 (wave A of medium term downtrend, colored magenta in the chart, is completed). This current wave is composed of A-B-C waves of smaller degree - colored red in the chart, and subwave C is still developing.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 129.75-135.56-131.14, 131.14-134.04-132.73, 132.73-133.67-132.91.
Resistances:
- 134.43-52 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 134.73 = COP
- 135.37 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 135.63 = objective point (OP)
If the decline resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 132.91-134.20, 131.14-134.04.
Supports:
- 133.71 = .382 retracement
- 133.56 = .50 ret
- 133.40 = .618 ret
- 133.03 = .382 ret
- 132.67 = .50 ret
- 132.31 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is up it's preferable to use oversold condition of the Detrended Oscillator (current prices minus 20-35 pips) or its cross below the zero level (current prices) to consider long positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD candlestick analysis for March 4, 2011

The AUD/USD has found a strong support near the 1.0080 level; however, upside movement was limited by the resistance level near 1.0200.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD currency pair has formed Morning Star candlestick combination indicating upside movement.
This candlestick combination formed near the support level 0.9961 where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after downside movement took place. This candlestick combination provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
Break of the resistance level 1.0074-0.9961 will prove this viewpoint. Now upside movement with a target at 1.0200 should be expected. If the 1.0200 level is tested successfully, a growth to 1.0255 should follow.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.9961 as break of this level will target the pair to 0.9825.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD candlestick analysis for March 4, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has made an unsuccessful attempt to test the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 to rebound further.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has formed a Hammer candlestick indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed on the downtrend after the pair reached the 0.9680 low, where the bears could not solidify and the bulls started to increase their influence.
If the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 is successfully broken, this will denote that this viewpoint is correct. In this case an advance to the resistance level 0.9820, where the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 is also located.
On the other hand, if the 0.9680 level is broken, long positions should be closed as it will lead to a decline to 0.9650 with further target at 0.9600. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, March 04, 2011



The American macroeconomic front provided several positive data yesterday, such, such as the data on new unemployment claims in the United States, which was reduced last week by 20 thousand to a level of 368 thousand – the lowest number since May 2008.

The economists expected a climb in the number of new claims to a level of 395 thousand. Today, the United States employment report for February will be published, with economists expecting it will point to an increase by 183 thousand jobs in the U.S. Labor market, with the unemployment level rising to 9.1%.


ISM reported yesterday that service-sector activity in the United States rose last month to a level of 59.7 points – its highest level since August 2005 – to a level of 59.4 points in January. Economists had predicted a slight index decline to a level of 59.3 points. We note that an index level above 50 points suggests a rise in productive activity, while an index level below that suggests a shrinking of activity levels.


Positive data have been received from the retail sector was well, after America's largest corporations reporting higher sales than expected for February, a mark of the improvement of the American consumers' appetite for shopping. Sales at the open stores in the leading retail chains in the United States rose by 4.2% in February, higher than analysts' predictions for a 3.6% rise.


The price of crude oil is approaching the close of a third weekly rise in a row at the New York Commodities exchange, this due to concerns over possible delays in oil production in Libya and a possible spreading of the unrest to other Middle Easter n countries. Oil futures for April are trading unchanged at 102.20 United States dollars for one barrel of oil. Yesterday oil prices declined by 0.3%. Throughout this week, oil has risen by 4.2%.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for March 4, 2011


4-hour timeframe




Overview:
The euro is still observing a buy signal with target level 1.3764, the target level is reached, the correction has ended and the price has fixated above the Kijun-sen again. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.4020 – the second resistance level. If this level is passed the second target will be the third resistance level at 1.4202. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.3850), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement, if it reverses down it is recommended to cut long positions.

Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 1.4020 and further to 1.4202. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3850. If the MACD reverses down it is recommended to cut long positions.


In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.


The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com







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EUR/USD wave analysis for March 4, 2011





The EUR/USD currency pair continued upside movement and gained over 1 figure by the end of the day. The complexity of the wave situation and several alternate waves suppose a possibility of the uptrend to be continued in the direction of the levels located near the 42 figure. If so, at the moment we are observing the development of the 3rd wave (in the C).

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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USD/CAD Technical Correction , March 04, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







USD/CAD

A look on graph (daily) of the United States dollar - canadian dollar pair shows that the technical image on the pair is consolidating, showing an attractive buy opportunity.
The downward pressure has remained in the 1st weekly support, at 0.9710 from here,
We mention that, the pair will go to touch his Weekly pivot during these days around 0.9834,canadian dollar for one United States dollar.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com



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GBP/USD wave analysis for March 4, 2011






Yesterday the GBP/USD currency pair could not continue the upside movement and declined almost by one figure by the end of the day. It is worth mentioning that if the situation develops further in the range of the uptrend, then at the moment the first waves in the 3rd wave, in the 3rd, in the C (or 3rd) are being formed. If so, this 3rd might find a target level near the 67 figure level.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 7, 2011

The GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B against 131.14-135.19 - colored magenta in the chart. Within this wave there are A-B-C waves of smaller degree - colored yellow in the chart. Subwave C is still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 131.14-135.19, and expansions off 135.19-133.63-134.09.
Supports:
- 133.16-13 = confluence area of .50 retracement and contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.69 = .618 ret
- 132.53 = objective point (OP)
- 131.57 = expanded objective point (xOP)
If the price reverses the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 135.19 - this wave is not developed yet.

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought condition of the Detrended Oscillator (current prices plus 25-40 pips) or its cross above the zero level (current prices) to consider short positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD candlestick analysis for March 7, 2011

The AUD/USD has rebounded up from the support level 1.0070-1.0080; however, upside movement was limited by the resistance level near 1.0156.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD currency pair has formed Morning Star candlestick combination indicating upside movement.
This candlestick combination formed near the support level 0.9961 where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after downside movement took place. This candlestick combination provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
Break of the resistance level 1.0074 proves this viewpoint. Now upside movement with a target at 1.0200 should be expected. If the 1.0200 level is tested successfully, a growth to 1.0255 should follow.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.9961 as break of this level will target the pair to 0.9825.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/CAD candlestick analysis for March 7, 2011

On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is demonstrating sideways movement after an unsuccessful attempt to test the Fibonacci correction level 23.6.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD currency pair has formed a Hammer candlestick indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed on the downtrend after the pair reached the 0.9680 low, where the bears could not solidify and the bulls started to increase their influence.
If the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 is successfully broken, this will denote that this viewpoint is correct. In this case an advance to the resistance level 0.9820, where the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 is also located.
On the other hand, if the 0.9680 level is broken, long positions should be closed as it will lead to a decline to 0.9650 with further target at 0.9600. 


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for March 7, 2011

The EUR/GBP currency pair has closed on the upside, thus recovering all the positions lost on the previous week. However, the pair is still trading in a range between 0.8280 and 0.8680.
At the moment the viewpoint at the pair is still bearish since the EUR/GBP has formed a candlestick combination Bearish Engulfing on the downtrend.
Downside movement is supported by the fact that this candlestick combination has formed near the upper limit of the downtrend where the bulls did not manage to solidify and the bears started to increase their influence. Further a rebound took place.
As mentioned before, successful breakthrough of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
It is worth highlighting that in case the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is broken short positions should be closed since it will denote that the downtrend is breached and the pair will be targeted to 0.98.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for March 7, 2011

Overview:
The euro is still observing a buy signal with target level 1.3764, the target level is reached, upside movement continues. The formed buy signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.4095 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second resistance level at 1.4201. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (1.3870), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is descending, however we do not see any downside or correction movement, this can be explained by resetting of parameters as the indicator has no room to advance further. Therefore, it should not be taken into account.



Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 1.4095 and further to 1.4201. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3870.

In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.


The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window. 



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

More analysis - at instaforex.com



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EUR/USD wave analysis for March 7, 2011


After a dynamic advance on Thursday the EUR/USD currency pair took a pause and was trading in a quite narrow range slightly below the 40 figure level. At the same time, we can suppose at a stretch that the Friday’s high completed the formation of the 3rd wave in the 3rd (in the C). If so, then after a decline in the range of the future 4th wave the price might resume the growth in the direction of the 1.4100 level, thus completing the 3rd wave in the estimated C.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 8, 2011

The GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave B against 131.14-135.19 - colored magenta in the chart. Within this wave there are A-B-C waves of smaller degree - colored orange red in the chart. Subwave C is still developing. And the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 131.14-135.19, and expansions off 135.19-133.52-134.12.
Supports:
- 132.69 = .618 retracement
- 132.45 = objective point (OP)
- 131.42 = expanded objective point (xOP)
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 135.19-132.97, and expansions off 131.14-135.19-132.97.
Resistances:
- 133.82 = .382 retracement
- 134.08 = .50 ret
- 134.34 = .618 ret
- 135.47 = contracted objective point (COP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down it's preferable to use overbought condition of the Detrended Oscillator (current prices plus 20-35 pips) or its cross above the zero level (current prices) to consider short positions.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com