Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 18, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave B (colored red in the chart), that is part of another corrective wave 4 (colored royal blue in the chart).
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.26-133.16, 130.50-133.16, and expansions off 133.16-131.65-132.55. More significant targets are Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03.
Supports:
- 131.62 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 131.52 = .618 ret
- 131.37 = .618 ret
- 131.04 = objective point (OP)
- 130.11 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 130.00 = OP
- 129.15 = .618 ret
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 137.03-130.26, and expansions off 130.26-133.16-131.65.
Resistances:
- 133.44 = COP
- 133.64 = .50 ret
- 134.44 = .618 ret
- 134.55 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down but a corrective wave is developing it's preferable to stand aside or try longs when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices as well).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 18, 2011

AUD/USD has probably finished wave C of medium term downtrend - 1.0888-1.0504, and now we have a corrective wave that is developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0888-1.0504, 1.1011-1.0504.
Resistances:
- 1.0696-98 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 1.0741 = .618 ret
- 1.0758 = .50 ret
- 1.0817 = .618 ret
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9709-1.1011, and expansions off 1.1011-1.0536-1.0888, 1.0888-1.0566-1.0716.
Supports:
- 1.0517-14 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .382 retracement
- 1.0413 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0394 = OP
- 1.0360 = .50 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down but a corrective wave is developing it's preferable to stand aside or try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-40 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (65-80 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/USD technical analysis for May 18, 2011

The GBP/USD currency pair has rolled back after it could not break the support level at 1.6164. Nevertheless, the viewpoint at the pair is still bearish.
Earlier in a daily graph the GBP/USD formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating a bearish signal.
This candlestick was formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6750, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
The break of 1 the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect downside movement with a target at 0.6164. Its break will allow it to reach the support level 1.5932, where the Fibonacci 61.8 correction level is also located. At the same time, break of the 1.6300 level will probably cause a slight consolidation.
It is worth mentioning that stop orders should be placed slightly above the 1.6517 level as a break of this resistance will target the pair to 1.6750.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/JPY technical analysis for May 18, 2011

In a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY currency pair is continuing upside movement after a slight consolidation.
Earlier the USD/JPY currency pair formed candlestick combination Piercing line, indicating further upside movement.
This candlestick combination shows that the currency pair was declining for several days, but rebounded near the 79.60 level, which means that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
If the USD/JPY successfully tests the Fibonacci correction level 23.6, it will prove this viewpoint. In this case we should expect upside movement to 82.85-83.16 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located.
Further upside movement is also supported by the bullish candlestick combination Rising Three Methods, which will probably strengthen the upside movement.
It is worth mentioning that if the 79.60 level gets broken, long positions should be closed as it will target the pair to 79.00.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for May 18, 2011

The EUR/GBP currency pair has found demand again while declining to the 0.8650 support level, to roll back further. Earlier in a daily graph the EUR/GBP formed a Long Shadows candlestick indicating further downside movement, confirmed further.
This candlestick shows that earlier the EUR/GBP pair made a strong upside movement after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 0.8300. However, it reversed near the 0.9000 level. This means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
The divergence on the RSI and the MACD supports the downside movement.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level proves this viewpoint.
As mentioned earlier, if the Fibonacci 38.2 correction level is successfully tested, we should expect downside movement with a target at 0.8650 where the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located. Its break will target the pair to the next support level 0.8350.
It is worth mentioning that stop orders should be placed slightly above the resistance level 0.9050 as its break will target the pair to 0.9160.
In the medium term, the rollback from 0.8067 is completed with 3 waves at 0.9041. Current correction means the decline from the 0.9799 (2008 high) is continuing with a target to refresh lows below 0.8067. Break of the support level 0.8650 will prove this point of view and lead to downside movement to 0.8284. Its break will target the pair to 0.8067.
Nevertheless, break of the resistance level 0.9050 will denote that the short-term correction from 0.9799 is completed with 3 waves at 0.8067. In this case, the long-term downtrend initiated in 2000 will be probably continued to refresh highs above 0.9799.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/CHF Bullish Outlook, May 16, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







EUR/CHF

The long wave of price drops that brought the pair to its low point and the strong support

level of 1.2490 is now showing signs of tiring with a clear option for a change in

direction and a move to rising exchange rates. In fact, the strong weekly support level of

1.2490 has already succeeded in defeating the pair the last two times they met and the

expectation is that it could do this once again.

Expect the price of the pair reaches the weekly resistance level around 1.2810 as our

ultimate goal.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com




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EUR/CHF Bullish Outlook, May 18, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






EUR/CHF

The long wave of price drops that brought the pair to its low point and the strong support

level of 1.2490 is now showing signs of tiring with a clear option for a change in

direction and a move to rising exchange rates. In fact, the strong weekly support level of

1.2490 has already succeeded in defeating the pair the last two times they met and the

expectation is that it could do this once again.

Expect the price of the pair reaches the weekly resistance level around 1.2810 as our

ultimate goal.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com







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GBP/JPY Bullish Outlook May 18, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/JPY

Tepko, the power company operating the nuclear reactors in Fukushima, Japan reported last

night that they expected to cool the reactors completely by October and meet the time table

set for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the damages caused by the nuclear

disaster.

The move to positive sentiments in the financial markets should also support the British

Pound Sterling - Japanese Yen pair that, for the most part, moves in positive coordination

with the market.

Expect the price of the pair reaches the weekly resistance level around 1.3690 as our

partial objective; and as our final goal, the level of 145.00 Japanese Yen to British Pound

Sterling.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 19, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse subwave C (colored red in the chart), that is part of corrective wave 4 (colored royal blue in the chart).
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 137.03-130.26, 133.16-130.74, and expansions off 130.26-133.16-130.74.
Resistances:
- 132.24 = .618 retracement
- 132.53 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 133.27 = .382 ret
- 133.64 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 ret
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03.
Supports:
- 130.00 = OP
- 129.15 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down but a corrective wave up is developing it's preferable to stand aside or try longs when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 19, 2011

AUD/USD has probably finished wave C of medium term downtrend - 1.0888-1.0504, and now we have a corrective wave that is developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0888-1.0504, 1.1011-1.0504, and expansions off 1.0504-1.0665-1.0568.
Resistances:
- 1.0667 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0696-98 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 1.0729 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0741 = .618 ret
- 1.0758 = .50 ret
- 1.0817 = .618 ret
- 1.0828 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9709-1.1011, and expansions off 1.1011-1.0536-1.0888.
Supports:
- 1.0514 = .382 retracement
- 1.0413 = OP
- 1.0360 = .50 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down but a corrective wave up is developing it's preferable to stand aside or try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (30-35 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (55-65 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

USD/CAD technical analysis for May 19, 2011

Support levels: 0.9513, 0.9440, 0.9400
Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9972, 1.0050
In a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is demonstrating downside movement. Nevertheless, the growth might be resumed after current rollback.
As mentioned before, in case the resistance near 0.9721 is broken we should expect upside movement to 0.9972. Further break of 1.0380 will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
It is worth mentioning that in a 4-hour graph a reverse figure “Reversed Head and Shoulders” was formed. Break of the neck line proved this point of view and targeted the pair to 1.0050.
If a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9440 support level, further advance to 0.9400 should be expected. Besides, we can expect a decline to 0.9353, which is 100.0 Fibonacci projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 up to 0.9972.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as the first target and 0.9500 as the next possible target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
The viewpoint at the pair is bearish until the resistance at 0.9972 is broken.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

GBP/USD Bullish Outlook May 19, 2011 (Daily Strategy)









GBP/USD

The United Kingdom pound – United States dollar pair is showing signs of a change in trend,

a daily close above the first monthly resistance around 1.6205 will be a clear signal to

buy long up to resistance levels of 1.6650 at least. We remind you that the long term

fundamental price target for the pair is at around price levels of 1.7500 United States

dollars to the United Kingdom pound.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com




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USD/JPY wave analysis for May 19, 2011






Yesterday during the Asian session the USD/JPY did not manage to pass the 81 figure level

and advanced to 81.70 by the end of the day. At the same time, the current situation is

developing, and as a result the price might form the 1st wave of the future new uptrend

section. At the same time, current MACD divergence still allows a new stage of declining in

the direction of the lows reached earlier.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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GBP/USD wave analysis for May 19, 2011






Even good data on unemployment did not manage to prevent the GBP/USD from another downfall.

As a result, the price declined by almost 1.5 figures and closely approached the 61 figure

level. At the same the inner wave system of the correction structure formed during the

first two days of this week does not look quite convincing. In the meantime, we cannot

eliminate the possibility of yesterday’s downside movement to be resumed and form a more

complex 3rd wave (or C).

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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EUR/USD wave analysis for May 19, 2011







During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD could not define further direction. At the same

time, the price is still within the wave structure that at the moment can be characterized

as another series of abc correction waves. Thus, current situation allows both resumption

of downside movement in the range of the future 5th wave in the estimated 3rd (or C), and

possible development of a new uptrend section.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com