Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

GBP/USD wave analysis. Week review.







After another testing of the 64 figure level the GBP/USD started to form the wave structure

of the estimated 2nd wave in the future 3rd (or C). If so, the 2nd wave does not look

complete at the moment, which allows a possibility of a decline to the 1.6175 level or

lower. At the same time, general dollar situation extremely overbought indicators require

being careful when keeping long positions.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

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USD/CHF wave analysis for April 18, 2011




Last day of the week the USD/CHF currency pair was trading in a quite narrow price range

near the 0.8920 level. At the same time, the price almost finished to form the estimated

3rd wave (in the 3rd) of the whole downtrend section of the main trend. If so, the currency

pair might start moving from the reached lows (in the range of the future 4th wave) in the

short term. The formed MACD divergence proves this.



Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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USD/CAD candlestick analysis for March 19, 2011

Support levels: 0.9500, 0.9450, 0.9400
Resistance levels: 0.9750, 0.9840, 0.9972

In the 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is rolling back after refreshing multi-year lows. The USD/CAD has probably formed a short-term bottom at 0.9529. However, the rollback might be limited near the resistance level 0.9750, where Fibonacci correction level 50.0 is also located.
As mentioned before, break of the 0.9571 support level allowed the pair to reach 0.9500. Besides, we can expect a decline to 0.9353, which is 100.0 Fibonacci projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 up to 0.9972.
If a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 0.9840 resistance level, further advance to 1.0000 should be expected. Further break of the 1.0380 level will denote that the rollback from 1.0680 is completed and further growth should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as the first target and 0.9500 as the next possible target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and a strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, if a reversal takes place, the breakout of 1.0851 will prove the downtrend broken through from 1.3063. In this case the USD/CAD is expected to go up to the resistance level 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 19, 2011

The AUD/USD currency pair is rolling back after another unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance level at 1.0600. Nevertheless, if it is broken, we should expect a growth to 1.0650.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD formed a Three White Soldiers candlestick combination that indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This combination formed amid a growth after an attempt to break the support level 0.9700; afterwards the bulls started to increase their influence. This candlestick combination provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
Besides, the AUD/USD broke the 61.8 Fibonacci correction level. Break of the 1.0500 resistance level targeted the pair to 1.0600.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.0400 is broken, long positions should be closed as it will cause a decline to 1.0300.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD candlestick analysis for March 19, 2011

The NZD/USD currency pair is rolling back slightly after refreshing a 3-year high at 0.8006. Nevertheless, the pair is still trading in the uptrend.
As mentioned before, in a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect an upside movement to the 0.7660 level, following the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 break.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7750, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7660.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Silver review for April 19, 2011

On Monday futures on silver closed at their 31-year high as demand of investors for harbor assets grew after Standard & Poor’s published a negative forecast regarding the US rating.
The prices for silver rose up to USD 42.940 (a high for 31 years) after S&P lowered its forecast over the US rating from stable down to negative. Investors’ demand for currency alternative and an instrument of hedging against economic uncertainty have supported silver futures.
The quotations of April silver futures on COMEX grew by 0.9% (39.1 cent) by the end of trades and thus constituted USD 42.957 per ounce. The intraday high was much lower than that registered on January 18, 1980 – 50.360.
May futures on silver trading more actively, grew by 38.5 cent (by 0.9%) up to a record high of USD 42.956. Yet it is less than the intraday high of USD 43.560 per ounce.
Market participants say that the prices for precious metals are likely to continue increasing amid resumed demand for harbor assets and intensifying concerns over the European sovereign debt.
The market is more and more ruffled by talks about Greece not likely to fulfill its debt settling obligations regardless of the assistance rendered by the EU and IMF. These concerns have exacerbated due to rumours according to which no supplementary aid will be provided which is to make investors buy harbor assets amid increasing uncertainty.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

EUR/USD candlestick analysis for March 19, 2011

EUR/USD pair is rolling back after it could not break the resistance level 1.4520.
Nevertheless, it is still trading in an uptrend after it has successfully broken the 1.4278 resistance level. As mentioned before, a break of this level will target the pair to 1.4577.
Earlier in the intraday chart EUR/USD shaped a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination which is an explicit signal to growth.
Such a candlestick combination points to the growth of the pair for several weeks. However, there was a rollback registered at the 1.4035 level which was a good opportunity to start buying.
Further upside movement is supported by the fact that the uptrend remains.
The break of 1.4035 resistance level proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the resistance level 1.4278.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss orders should be placed slightly below 1.4100 as a break of this level will denote that the uptrend is broken. 


InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/AUD Bullish Outlook April 12, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





GBP/AUD

The pair British pound - Australian Dollar is the most time in negative correlation with

financial markets, so when the markets go down the pair has a clear tendency to rise and

vice versa. And indeed, the bearish wave that gripped markets recently provided support to

the pound - that Australian dollar reversed direction and for the first time in a long time

began to climb upward.

For now the pair has met with strong resistance around 1.5575; the break of this level

serve as a trigger to take a bullish position that will lead you back to the levels of

1.6100 or even 1.6500.

The MACD indicator, is showing signs of an upward trend even higher.

Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


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CHF/JPY Bearish Outlook, April 14, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)





CHF/JPY

After an impressive upwards movement that led the Swiss Frank – Japanese Yen pair to the

93.94 high, we can predict a reversal of the positive trend and move to a wave of downwards

movement, especially due to the fact the pair has failed twice to breach the major

resistance level at 94.00. That said, the WEEKLY graph on the pair shows that the 88.60

strong support level is closing in on the pair from below.

The final goal for the expected downwards movement is positioned only at 88.60, the pair is

expected to meet the secondary weekly support level around 90.00, which will serve as a

test on its way down.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

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USD/JPY wave analysis for April 19, 2011





Yesterday the USD/JPY continued to decline slowly and stopped near the 82 figure later in

the day. As a result of the continuing decline, the price forms extensions in the complex

wave structure of the estimated correction wave a, or in the 1st wave of the future new

downtrend section. At the same time, given the inner dimension of this 1st wave (or a) we

might allow a possibility of its soon completion, which is supported by the MACD

divergence.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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USD/CHF wave analysis for April 19, 2011







During the whole previous day the USD/CHF was making attempts to finish the formation of

inner wave structure of the 3rd wave, of the whole downside section initiated in early

April. At the same time, given the possibility of the 5th wave in this 3rd to be truncated,

we might suppose it will be completed near the 89 figure level. If so, we might expect

yesterday’s upside movement to develop to the levels of 90 or 91 figures.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - April 20, 2011

GBP/JPY is moving in correction to medium term downtrend. Now we have corrective subwave B (colored red in the chart) within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart.
Now, the immediate resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 136.36-139.90, 139.93-132.90, and expansions off 132.90-134.43-133.68, 133.68-134.75-134.07.
Resistances:
- 135.41 = .618 retracement
- 135.80 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 136.16 = XOP
- 136.42 = .50 retracement
- 136.87 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 137.24 = .618 ret
- 137.69 = SXOP
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 132.90 - this wave is not developed yet.


Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the wave of a larger degree is moving up it's preferable to open long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (20-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (55-75 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD candlestick analysis for March 20, 2011

The AUD/USD currency pair is testing the resistance level 1.0600. If it is broken, we should expect a growth to 1.0650.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the AUD/USD formed a Three White Soldiers candlestick combination that indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This combination formed amid a growth after an attempt to break the support level 0.9700; afterwards the bulls started to increase their influence. This candlestick combination provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
Besides, the AUD/USD broke the 61.8 Fibonacci correction level. Break of the 1.0500 resistance level targeted the pair to 1.0600.
As mentioned before, if the support level 1.0400 is broken, long positions should be closed as it will cause a decline to 1.0300.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD candlestick analysis for March 20, 2011

The NZD/USD currency pair is demonstrating upside movement after a rollback. Break of the resistance level 0.8000 will target the pair to 0.8050.
As mentioned before, in a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect an upside movement to the 0.7660 level, following the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 break.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7823, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7740.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com