Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

NZD/USD candlestick analysis for March 12, 2011

Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/SEK formed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination that indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This combination formed after the pair failed to break the 6.1758 level, which means that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the 6.3678 level, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
However, it is worth mentioning that if the 6.1758 support level is broken, long positions should be closed as this will cause a decline to the 6.1250 level.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

Gold review for April 12, 2011

On Monday futures on Gold declined amid weakening geopolitical instability thanks to the efforts aimed at ceasefire in the Middle East and US budget coordination. By the end of COMEX trades, June futures on Gold quotations dropped by USD 6 (0.4%) down to USD 1468.10 per troy ounce. During the trades futures reached a new all-time high of USD 14678 per ounce.
April futures lost USD 6 (0.4%) and constituted USD 1467.40. On Sunday evening The African Union representatives met with Libyan leader Muhammar Gaddafi and announced that he accepted their offer to cease fire. Yet it is unclear whether Gaddafi will retire then. The uncertainty on the market eased and investors’ inclination to risk intensified; the market participants have been tending to transfer their funds from Gold into more risky assets such as stocks which are more profitable. On Friday evening the leaders of US Republican and Democratic parties came to the consensus over the issue of reducing expenditures by the end of the financial year. The work of the federal government was not interrupted.
The prices for Gold grew amid the concerns over possible suspense in the government functioning as this metal is considered to be an instrument of hedging against political risks. The strengthening US dollar put pressure upon the Gold prices on Monday. The America currency recovered against the euro. Futures on Gold of which the prices are in US dollars, are becoming more expensive for investors working with foreign currencies when the US dollar is strengthening. Despite the Monday decrease, the prices for Gold are remaining near record levels. Some market observers note that USD 1500 level per ounce is possible to be attained. However, traders have been cautious regarding support ensured to Gold prices by investors’ demand. Managed currency, including hedging funds, boosted their positions amid prices growth for the third week in a row, having increased the volume of net long positions by 8.8% up to 216868 contracts on week March 30 – April 5. Meanwhile, inconsiderable investment flows in Gold-supported index funds which are believed to be an indicator of long-term investments, have been pointing at the weak current growth of the prices for Gold.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook April 15, 2011 (Daily Strategy)




CRUDE OIL



Yesterday, the price of oil that dropped back and closed the trading day beneath the

important test level of 109.37(1st Weekly Support) reaching the level of 107.87 dollars.

Now the pair is trading below this level.

We thus believe that the pair found a new support around the fractal that takes you to the

106.50 level, then resume their upward force to the levels of 117.00 dollars per barrel

price of ultimate goal.





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at

instaforex.com




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USD/CHF Bullish Outlook April 12, 2011 (Daily Strategy)




USD/CHF

The United States dollar – Swiss Franc pair, is in the final stage of its last downward

wave, We expect that around the first weekly support the pair found support strong stand to

prevent the sequence downward.

The pair is faced with two strong supports the weekly and monthly, around 0.8986, 0.8955

respectively.The progress of the pair to this level will create an attractive buying

opportunity for long position with a bullish outlook to the maximum levels around 0.9450.

It should be noted that as this operation is realized, the first point of partial exercise

could be situated in relation to the nearest resistance level which is around 0.9220.







Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at

instaforex.com







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USD/LPY wave analysis for April 12, 2011






As expected, the USD/JPY currency pair continued to move in a horizontal corridor above the

correction level 23.6%, forming a quite complex inner wave structure of the current

correction. At the same time we should not eliminate the possibility of the estimated 4th

wave (in the 3rd) to obtain the shape of an inclined triangle with the price slumping to

the correction level 38.2%. At the same time, overbought Stochastic might indicate further

resumption of the pair’s growth.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



More analysis - at

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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 13, 2011

GBP/JPY has finished wave 130.18-139.93 - wave C of medium term uptrend, colored royal blue in the chart. And now corrective wave 4 is developing. This wave on smaller scale has four subwaves within it, and corrective subwave 4 is still developing - colored orange red in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 139.93-135.62 and 139.15-135.62.
Resistances:
- 137.27-38 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 137.78-80 = .50 and .618 retracements
- 138.28 = .618 ret
If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.18-139.93, 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-137.92-139.15.
Supports:
- 135.06 = .50 retracement
- 133.90-89 = confluence area of .618 retracement and SXOP
- 133.27 = .382 ret
- etc.
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the waves down from 139.15 and 139.93 - these waves are not developed yet.


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 13, 2011

AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0204-1.0580 (wave C of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart) and now is developing corrective wave 4. Within this wave there are A-B-C subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still in development. To confirm subwave C break below 1.0389 is needed. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0285-1.0580, 1.0204-1.0580, and expansions off 1.0580-1.0389-1.0521.
Supports:
- 1.0403 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0398-92 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements, already achieved
- 1.0348 = .618 ret
- 1.0330 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0389-1.0521-1.0428.
Resistances:
- 1.0510 = COP
- 1.0560 = OP


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

USD/SEK candlestick analysis for March 13, 2011

Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/SEK formed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination that indicates upside movement, confirmed further.
This combination formed after the pair failed to break the 6.1758 level, which means that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect upside movement to the 6.3678 level, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
However, it is worth mentioning that if the 6.1758 support level is broken, long positions should be closed as this will cause a decline to the 6.1250 level.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

NZD/USD candlestick analysis for March 13, 2011

The NZD/USD currency pair has successfully tested the 0.7829 resistance level, which is February 2011 high. Now upside movement to 0.7974 should be expected.
As mentioned before, in a 4-hour graph the NZD/USD pair formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement.
This candlestick was formed after the decline of the currency pair was limited near 0.7160, which denotes that the bears could not solidify here and the bulls started to increase their influence.
The break of the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect an upside movement to the 0.7660 level, following the Fibonacci correction level 50.0 break.
Stop loss should be placed slightly below 0.7660, since its break will allow the pair to reach 0.7585.


Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, April 13, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





AUD/USD

The daily chart of AUD / USD, we believe that the pair has found a strong barrier to overcoming the price of 1.0580, from my point of view, if the pair tried again de1.0560 back to level, and fail in its attempt to drill, would be an opportunity to enter into short selling, with a target around the second Weekly support is the level of 1.0180.

However, if the pair descend and close below the weekly pivot around 1.0476 would be a clear indication to enter selling, our stop loss above the monthly maximum.





Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com




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EUR/JPY Bearish Outlook, April 13, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





EUR/JPY

The strengthening of the euro in recent days push the price of pair Euro - Japanese yen, the two candles before today's meeting shows bearish, although not yet finished the trading day, and we believe that if the pair continued their upward trend will rise to the level of 124.00.

However, a daily close below the weekly pivot line around 121.60, would show signs of a trend change that would lead to the nearest support around 117.80. we recommend taking a bearish position, only if the price is below the weekly pivot line.



Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

More analysis - at instaforex.com







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EUR/USD wave analysis for April 13, 2011





During yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD pair finally tested the 45 figure level and, despite further rollback, demonstrated the intention of the euro to resume the uptrend. In this relation the whole wave situation, developed since March 11, requires certain precision. Given all this, we might suppose that the target for such upside movement might be the levels between 1.4650 and 1.4700. If so, the price might correct, supposedly, from yesterday’s highs, thus indicating the end of the 3rd wave, in the estimated 5th, of the whole uptrend section.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


More analysis - at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 14, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing corrective wave 4 of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Wave 4 has 3 subwaves within it, and subwave C is still developing - colored red in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.18-139.93, 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-135.62-137.12.
Supports:
- 135.06 = .50 retracement
- 134.46 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 133.90 = .618 retracement
- 133.27 = .382 ret
- etc.
If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 139.93-135.44.
Resistances:
- 137.16 = .382 ret
- 137.69 = .50 ret
- 138.21 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term is down it's preferable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (right where the prices are - still better would be to wait until the price hits a Fib resistance, e.g. at 137.16).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - March 14, 2011

AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0204-1.0580 (wave C of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart) and now is developing corrective wave 4. Within this wave there are A-B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave B still in development. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0389-1.0521-1.0428 and 1.0428-1.0538-1.0457.
Resistances:
- 1.0523 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0560-67 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
- 1.0635-42 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
If the price reverses down the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0285-1.0580, 1.0204-1.0580, 1.0389-1.0538, and expansions off 1.0580-1.0389-1.0538.
Supports:
- 1.0446 = .618 retracement
- 1.0420 = COP
- 1.0392 = .50 ret
- 1.0348-47 = confluence area of .618 ret and OP

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down, it's preferable to look for shorts when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (right where the price is - that also corresponds to 1.0523 Fib resistance).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com