Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

European Economics Preview: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Data Due



Consumer confidence from Germany is due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Germany's Gfk consumer confidence survey results are due. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index is expected to rise to -5 in August from -9.6 in July.

In the meantime, unemployment data is due from Statistics Norway. At 2.45 am ET, the statistical office Insee is scheduled to release France's business confidence survey data. Economists forecast the index to climb to 85 in July from 77 in June.

At 3.30 am ET, Statistics Sweden publishes unemployment data for June.

Half an hour later, unemployment data is due from Poland. The jobless rate is seen at 6.2 percent in June versus 6 percent in May.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry is slated to issue Industrial Trends survey data. The order book balance is forecast to improve to -38 in July from -58 in June.

At 7.00 am ET, Turkey's central bank is set to announce its interest rate decision. The bank is expected to hold its one-week repo rate at 8.25 percent.

At 10.00 am ET, Eurozone flash consumer confidence survey data is due. The sentiment index is seen rising to -12 in July from -14.7 in June.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 24, 2020:



Technical Market Outlook:
After the EUR/USD pair had broken through the long-term technical resistance located at the level of 1.1540, the up trend has been confirmed and it is being continued. Currently, the market is trying to extend the rally towards the level of 1.1629 or higher towards the level of 1.1648. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions are now overbought, so please keep in mind the pull-back scenario during the trading activities. If the support zone seen at the levels of 1.1497 - 1.1483 is clearly violated, then the bigger correction can take place with a target at the level of 1.1361 - 1.1347.The most important for bulls will be the weekly (2 days left) and monthly close (6 days left).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1642
WR2 - 1.1541 WR1 - 1.1496
Weekly Pivot - 1.1397
WS1 - 1.1342
WS2 - 1.1243
WS3 - 1.1193

Trading Recommendations:
The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540 has been violated, so the EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.1813 - 1.1851. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 27, 2020:



Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair has been moving up since the market opened after the weekend, so the new temporary swing high was made at the level of 1.2857. Moreover, the bulls had broken out from the ascending channel, which is rather another confirmation of the positive sentiment despite the overbought market conditions. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2869 and 1.2900. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2816 and 1.2786.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3215
WR2 - 1.2993
WR1 - 1.2929
Weekly Pivot - 1.2717
WS1 - 1.2632
WS2 - 1.2427
WS3 - 1.2355

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 28, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro decided to play its role to the end. Yesterday the price exceeded the target level of 1.1735, closing the day by gaining 96 points. Now the price should reach the upper border of the price channel around 1.1800. With the price level and the Marlin oscillator developing, divergence persists, respectively, we are waiting for the price to reverse down in the medium term. The timing may coincide that a reversal from such a key level will occur tomorrow, that is, on the day of the Federal Reserve's announcement of its decision on monetary policy.



The oscillator shows a timid attempt to reverse against the rising price on the four-hour chart. This could be noise, or it could be warning a reversal. But since the Fed announces its decision tomorrow, the situation will be resolved on Wednesday.



The main issue that concerns investors is the Fed's intention to target the yield curve for government bonds. If they hint that this is not necessary, the dollar will get a fresh dose of optimistic mood.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Control zones for USDCAD on 07/29/20

The fall of the pair is a priority, so keeping sales will be beneficial. The 1.3314 level is within the average daily move, which is the June low. A test of this level will increase the likelihood of a large demand.



It is important to note that the June low coincides with WCZ 1/2 1.3322-1.3310. This indicates the importance of the range for making trading decisions.

An alternative pattern of continuing the fall will develop if the close of today's trading occurs below 1.3314. This will increase the likelihood of the Canadian dollar strengthening even further



Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 30, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro fulfilled its irresistible and inextinguishable desire to work out the border of the global price channel at around 1.1804. This channel originates from the July 2008 high. The price begins to form a divergence with the Marlin Oscillator. The first target of the decline is 1.1620.



The Marlin divergence looks unambiguous on the four-hour chart, and it was created twice in a row. We are waiting for the price to move to the target level of 1.1620. On the way to it, the price will face an obstacle in the form of the MACD line in the area of 1.1686.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of EURUSD for August 3, 2020:



Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has made a new swing low at the level of 1.1908, but the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move. The market has returned then below 61% Fibonacci retracement on weekly time frame chart (seen at 1.1822) and is now back in the ascending main channel. The momentum is neutral and the market is coming off the overbought conditions, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1655 - 1.1629. If the market hits this level, then the healthy correction is completed and the up trend might be resumed.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.2175
WR2 - 1.2036
WR1 - 1.1886
Weekly Pivot - 1.1756
WS1 - 1.1625
WS2 - 1.1507
WS3 - 1.1369

Trading Recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend, so all pull-backs and corrections should be used to acumulate the EUR. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.2000 - 1.2089. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for AUD/USD on August 4, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar nearly hit its first bearish target of 0.7070 on Monday. And since the technical situation is still decreasing, even intensified somewhat, today we expect the price to attack support at 0.7070. Success will contribute to further decline to the target level of 0.6970, which was approached by the MACD indicator line. Thus, the level acquires strategic importance - breaking it will trigger a mid-term decline of the aussie": the target is 0.6570 - the high on April 30.



The price is developing under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, Marlin in the downward trend zone. There are no signs of a reversal, we are waiting for the price to try to gain a foothold below the 0.7070 level.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for August 5, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:
The up trend on GBP/USD pair is developing despite some local pull-backs as the bulls has broken through the short-term trend line resistance located around the level of 1.3080. The local high was made at the level of 1.3098 so far, but the market is bouncing from the oversold conditions, so the bulls might try to attack the recent swing high located at the level of 1.3169 soon. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.2980 would change the short-term market sentiment and deepen the correction towards the level of 1.2869.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3655
WR2 - 1.3405
WR1 - 1.3252
Weekly Pivot - 1.2996
WS1 - 1.2877
WS2 - 1.2627
WS3 - 1.2492

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 6, 2020:

Crypto Industry Outlook:
The launch of the Ethereum Medalla test network, scheduled for 1pm, did not go as smoothly as expected. While the network was successfully launched and offered a sufficient number of blocks at its supposed time of construction, the participation rate was only 57% - well below the expected 80%.

This means that only 57% of the rate is implemented for network validation. This is a serious problem because block finality cannot be achieved until the network starts cutting off validators that are offline. Finality means that the block history is irreversible, which is equivalent to the block confirmation threshold in Ethereum 1.0. According to the developers, this could be because many validators signed up by paying 32 ETH without running the validation software. However, customer issues with Nimbus and Lodestar could account for around 10% of that participation gap, said Danny Ryan of the Ethereum Foundation.

The network is expected to fix the problem on its own as inactive validators are kicked out, however it may take at least several hours to restore the finality. Meanwhile, developers investigate customer issues.

Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out from the narrow range located between the levels of $379.59 - $392.79 and made a new local high at the level of $407.03. For now the price is trading close to the recent ATH, around the level of $400 again and the up trend is still being continued. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $414 and $425.25. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $300. The momentum is still strong and positive, which supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $532.98
WR2 - $470.84
WR1 - $423.16
Weekly Pivot - $365.99
WS1 - $312.04
WS2 - $255.55
WS3 - $208.47

Trading Recommendations:
Due to the violation of the level of $351, Ethereum is now in the up trend on the long-term time frame. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $500. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $86.10, but the zone around $300 - $308 is an important technical support as well.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.