Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 14, 2016





Wave summary: After testing very strong resistance near 126.90, we are look for a breakout below minor support at 126.05 to confirm that wave b is over and wave c towards 119.90, and possibly even lower to 117.35, is developing. It should just be a matter of time before we could see the peak of this b-wave rally and a new strong decline in wave c.


Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 126.79 with stop placed at 128.20. If you are not short yet, then sell now and use the same stop at 128.20 or sell on a break below support at 126.05.


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Global macro overview for 14/03/2016





IIn the regional elections taken place last Sunday the German voters punished Chancellor Merkels conservatives, giving a thumbs-down to her open-door refugee policy and turning in droves to the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD). The result is a big setback for Merkel, who has led eurozone's largest economy for a decade, and could narrow her room to maneuver as she tries to convince her EU partners to seal a deal with Turkey to stem the tide of migrants. The political party of Merkel, the Christian Democrats (CDU), lost ground in all important states – Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in the west and Saxony-Anhalt in the east – which were together widely seen as offering a verdict on Merkel's liberal migrant policy. In conclusion, this contest was the biggest of Merkel's third-term and the broadest electoral test before the next German federal ballot in 18 months. If the main ballot get even worse, that this one, the future of the EU policy towards migrants and the whole economic foundation's might be completely changed, influencing the financial markets. Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame after the last rally on Friday. The local top was established at the level of 1.1217 and the market slowly went lower to test the support at the level of 1.1079. Currently, bulls are trying to re-gain the control in the market using the level of 1.1079 as a technical support to rally towards the level of 1.1217. Only a clear and sustained violation of the level of 1.0822 would change the current picture from bullish to bearish again.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 15, 2016





H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4333 / 1.4396
H1 chart's support levels: 1.4267 / 1.4190


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 1.4333, take profit is at 1.4396 and stop loss is at 1.4271.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 16, 2016





Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF pair has dropped below 1.4000 levels beyond what was expected and discussed earlier, but the pair is still above 1.3900 levels and that makes a valid case for a Wave 4 correction. Please note that the pair could stage a rally through 1.4300/20 levels till prices stay above 1.3900/20 levels. Also note that the pair is testing Fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between 1.3750 and 1.4280 levels respectively. It is still recommended to remain long with risk at 1.3900 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.3920 levels, while resistance is at 1.4300/20 levels respectively. Only a drop below 1.3900 levels would discard the bullish count.


Trading recommendations:
Remain long for now, stop at 1.3900, target 1.4300.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 17, 2016





BP/USD had a bullish momentum above the 1.4000 psychological zone and a consolidation above the 200 SMA at the H1 chart is ongoing. That happened after the Fed minutes release in the United States, as the pair is trying to break above the resistance zone of 1.4267 in order to reach the 1.4310 level. The MACD indicator is still supporting the bullish idea at positive territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4267 / 1.4310
H1 chart's support levels: 1.4190 / 1.4141


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4267, take profit is at 1.4310 and stop loss is at 1.4233.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 28, 2016





Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/JPY pair has rallied through 126.80/85 levels as expected and discussed last week. The pair is facing resistance at 126.85 and looking to reverse lower below 124.50 levels going forward. Please also note that bears would remain in control till prices stay below 127.30 levels. The pair is also seen stalling at the fibonacci 0.786 resistance of the drop between 127.25 through 124.50 levels respectively. It is recommended to book profits for any long positions taken earlier and look to go short with risk above 127.30 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 127.20/30 levels for now, while support is seen at 125.70 and 124.70 levels respectively.


Trading recommendations:
Book profits on long positions taken earlier and go short now with stop at 127.30/40 and target open.


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Daily analysis of USDX for March 29, 2016





USDX is currently doing a pullback from yesterday's highs, as the Index is still doing some corrective moves in favor of the overall bearish bias. The next target is located around the 95.44 level, where the Index can test that zone in order to strengthen the downside. However, a rebound at the current stage cannot be discarded yet.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.70 / 97.04
H1 chart's support levels: 96.03 / 95.44


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.03, take profit is at 95.44, and stop loss is at 96.60.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 30, 2016





UR/USD: The EUR/USD pair broke upwards on Tuesday, moving above the support line at 1.1250, and is now very close to the resistance line at 1.1300. Actually, that resistance line has been tested and it would be retested as the bulls push the price beyond it. The next target would then be another resistance line at 1.1350, which would also be breached to the upside.


USD/CHF: The pair broke downwards on Tuesday, moving below the resistance level at 0.9700, and is now very close to the support level at 0.9650. Actually, that support level would be tested as the bulls push the price beyond it. The next target would then be another support level at 0.9600, which would also be breached to the downside.


GBP/USD: As it was prognosticated, this currency trading instrument went upwards yesterday, resulting in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The EMA 11 is now above the EMA 56, as the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The next targets for the bulls are located at the distribution territories of 1.4450 and 1.4500. The distribution territory at 1.4400 has been previously tested and it would be breached to the upside very soon.


USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair broke down yesterday, threatening to invalidate the recent bullish outlook on the market. In case the price moves below the demand level at 112.00, the bullish outlook would be completely invalidated. However, a rally from here could reinforce the recent bullish outlook.


EUR/JPY: As it was expected, the EUR/JPY pair trended upwards on Tuesday (March 29, 2016). The price has moved upwards by 80 pips this week, now above the demand zone at 127.00. The next targets for the bulls are located at the supply zones of 127.50 and 128.00. However, this does not rule out any possibilities of pullbacks along the way.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 31 - 2016





Wave summary:
We have likely seen a low at 1.6229 just above the 1.6210 target. To confirm that a low has been seen, we need a break above minor resistance at 1.6508 and, more importantly, a break above resistance at 1.6725 that will call for renewed upside pressure towards 1.7220 and 1.8551. Hopefully, we will see upside acceleration this time around, then we will not set our expectations too high as we have been disappointed a couple of times now.


Trading recommendation:
We bought EUR at 1.6250 and will place our stop at a break-even point. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6292 or upon a break above 1.6508.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 01, 2016





In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, Tankan Manufacturing Index and the US will release some economic data such as Total Vehicle Sales, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m.So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day.


TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 112.86.
Resistance. 2: 112.64.
Resistance. 1: 112.42.
Support. 1: 112.15.
Support. 2: 111.93.
Support. 3: 111.70.


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